In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
Top NFL DFS Quarterback Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are two quarterbacks near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Josh Allen
- Russell Wilson
We’ll discuss why these two are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other quarterbacks.
Top Model NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Josh Allen ($8,400 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel): Buffalo Bills (-7.5) vs. New England Patriots (43.5 total)
Josh Allen has been somewhat nicked up down the stretch but was a full participant in Friday’s practice and doesn’t carry a designation for Sunday’s contest with the Patriots. The Bills won’t be at risk of resting starters, as they’re right in the thick of it with Cincinnati and Kansas City in fighting for seeding in the AFC.
Allen’s truly been a monster in fantasy this season, with seven games of 30+ DraftKings points on the year. He’s been the epitome of a dual-threat quarterback, throwing for 300+ yards in six games and running for 40+ yards or reaching the end zone on the ground in eleven games.
A lot of weight was put into last year’s “wind game” against New England. Allen has absolutely shredded New England since then, throwing 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions and rushing for 64, 66, and 20 yards in the three contests since the wind game.
There are a lot of question marks surrounding teams and their motivation this weekend, but not in Buffalo. We know the Bills will be playing hard, and they have a high-powered offense going up against a defense that they seem to have figured out.
Allen is the top quarterback in our Cash game and Tournament Models, as well as Chris Raybon’s Pro Model.
Russell Wilson ($5,400 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel): Denver Broncos (-3) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (40 total)
This certainly wasn’t the season that many in Denver expected it to be, and most Denver fans are likely ready for this rollercoaster ride to be over. Four months ago, Denver was all hyped up with Russell Wilson coming in, a new head coach who had just played a role in helping Aaron Rodgers re-find his MVP form, and a defense that was one of the most talented in the league.
Flash forward to the present day, and Denver has fired Nathaniel Hackett, boasts the lowest-scoring offense in the league, and is likely set to send a top-five pick in this year’s NFL Draft to Seattle.
Russell Wilson didn’t play his best ball this year, but he had some flashes. He’s had great fantasy performances in two of his past three games, with 25.58 DraftKings points last week against Kansas City and 26.58 points in Week 14 against checks notes Kansas City again. Sadly, Wilson is not facing Kansas City for a third time this week.
Wilson gets a matchup with a Chargers defense that is rounding into form at the right time. They rank in the top 10 in completion rate and yards per pass attempt allowed over their past five games. Their competition hasn’t been too tough in that stretch, but then again, Russell Wilson fits right in that boat.
If Cincinnati beats Baltimore at 1:00, the Chargers would then be locked into the five seed in the AFC and would potentially rest some of their starters on both sides of the ball. On the other side, we have Denver, who would love to let Russell Wilson sling it all over the yard to convince their fans going into this offseason that the trade was worth it.
The matchup appears tough, but considering the circumstances and cheap price tag, Wilson appears like a solid play.
He’s the top quarterback in Sean Koerner’s Pro Model.
Other Notable NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Joe Burrow ($7,300 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel): Cincinnati Bengals (-9.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens (39.5 total)
Joe Burrow has played exceptionally well in back-to-back games against New England in Tampa Bay. He combined for 575 yards and seven touchdowns over the two-game span, racking up 54.3 DraftKings points. He had a pedestrian performance when these teams matched up in Week 5, completing 68.6% of his passes for just 217 yards and a touchdown while throwing an interception. He did find the end zone on the ground, ending the day at 18.28 DraftKings points.
The Bengals are motivated to take care of business, as a win secures a home playoff game for them and gives them a chance to benefit from the new seeding conditions at the top of the AFC.
Geno Smith ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel): Seattle Seahawks (-6) vs. Los Angeles Rams (41.5 total)
The strategy at the quarterback position this week may simply be to find quarterbacks who have a reason to play. The Seahawks have one of the cleanest motives on Sunday: Win, and they have a shot to make the playoffs. They won’t know their fate before they kick off, so there’s no risk to Seattle resting starters or anything like that.
The Rams have given up the 10th-fewest DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks, but they’ve been dealing with injuries as the season has gone on. Smith tore up this defense back in Week 13, attempting 39 passes and completing 28 of them for 367 yards and three touchdowns.