The Market Share Report presents team-specific usage splits in easy-to-analyze visual form. For more information, see the first piece in the series.
For weekly analysis using this data, check out our NFL homepage. I’ll tweet out some findings as well, if that’s your thing. This data is best used in conjunction with our suite of Tools, especially our Models. The pie charts represent the past four weeks of data, while the line graphs show each individual week.
Without further ado, here are the graphs. They’re interactive, so hover over anything for more data. Good luck in Week 15!
A guy can’t touch the ball if he’s not on the field. Snap data is more important than a lot of people think. If 80 percent of success is showing up, then we want guys who actually show up on the field.
- Le’Veon Bell continues to be in a class of his own when it comes to running back playing time. Over the past four games, only five RBs have played 200-plus snaps: Carlos Hyde (201), Jamaal Williams (202), Lamar Miller (214), Todd Gurley (223), and Bell (283). Bell owns 85.1 percent of Pittsburgh’s rushes over that same time frame, and he just received 10 targets in Week 13. He’s a market share monster to the highest degree, and he’s finally available in the main slate again!
- Jay Ajayi outsnapped the other Philly RBs in Week 13 but only by three snaps. The differential was bigger in Week 14, as he played 43 of the Eagles’ 91 offensive snaps to Corey Clement‘s 27 and LeGarrette Blount‘s 15. It is possible the Eagles go more run-heavy now without starting QB Carson Wentz, and they’re in a perfect spot to do that as 7.5-point favorites against a Giants team that ranks 24th against the rush.
Players compete for one ball on a per-play basis and there’s only so much of the pie to go around. Targets are important. Below the pie graph is a line graph showing the weekly target share over the past four weeks.
- Seven players have hit the 30-plus percent target share mark over the past four games. Most are names you’d expect like A.J. Green, Julio Jones, and Antonio Brown. The one surprising name is Green Bay’s Davante Adams, who has emerged this season as the Packers’ WR1 ahead of Jordy Nelson. Of course, that is with Brett Hundley under center instead of superstar Aaron Rodgers, who is on track to return in Week 15 against the Panthers. How the market share breaks down with the QB shift will be important to watch.
- In his first start for the 49ers, QB Jimmy Garoppolo spread the ball out, and Marquise Goodwin led the team with ‘just’ 21.6 percent of the targets. In Week 14, Jimmy G zoned in on Goodwin, throwing it to him 12 times — a 37.5 percent market share of targets. Goodwin turned those into a 6-106-0 line, and it’s clear he’s the No. 1 option in San Francisco currently. He has another nice matchup in Week 15 against a Titans squad that ranks 25th in pass DVOA.
Air Yards as a metric helps us see how a receiver produces his receiving yards and how leveraged his targets are. The metric was created by RotoViz’s Josh Hermsmeyer. The charts show the market share of Air Yards.
- Michael Thomas led all players in Week 14 with 64 percent of his team’s Air Yards. He had his best game of the season, posting a 10-117-1 line on 14 targets, and he has a beautiful matchup in Week 15 against a Jets squad that ranks 27th in pass DVOA and just got demolished by 23 points against the terrible Broncos. Alvin Kamara says he’ll be back from his concussion, but it’s unclear if they’ll give him a full workload. The one negative for Thomas and the passing game is the spread: The Saints are currently massive 16-point home favorites.
- Devin Funchess has gotten over 50 percent of the Panthers’ Air Yards in two of the past three weeks, including 57 percent in Week 14 against a tough Vikings secondary. He’s clearly Cam Newton‘s go-to guy, and the Panthers’ pass attack has nice upside in Week 15 against a Packers defense that funnels production toward the pass game, as they rank ninth against the run but just 21st against the pass. If Rodgers and company comes out firing, Cam might have to go more pass-heavy in a sneaky shoot-out game.
Again, there’s only so much of the rushing pie to go around.
- Samaje Perine has dominated the touches since Chris Thompson went down, owning 81.7 percent of Washington’s rushes over the past four games — the fifth-best mark in the league over that time period. He’s yet to really produce with his heavy workload, but he’s in an interesting spot in Week 15 as 4.5-point home favorites against the Cardinals. It isn’t the best matchup in the world — Arizona has a top-five rush defense — but RBs typically perform better as favorites and at home, and it is unlikely Perine will carry high ownership.
- Leonard Fournette had his best game in a while in Week 14, posting a 24-101-1 line on the ground and getting six targets as well. The Jaguars have no qualms riding their top-five draft pick, and he’s received 75.0 percent of their rushes over the past four weeks. He’s in a very nice spot in Week 15 as an 11.5-point home favorite against a banged-up Texans defense.
Opportunities Inside the 10-Yard Line
Touchdowns are critical for success in guaranteed prize pools. Getting opportunities inside the 10-yard line is pretty much DFS gold.
- Melvin Gordon leads the league with 11 opportunities inside the 10-yard line over the past four games. Say what you want about whether Gordon is good at football; it’s impossible to ignore high-value touches like he’s getting. This Chargers offense is humming right now, and they’ll look to keep things rolling in Arrowhead in Week 15. The Chiefs rank 30th in rush DVOA this season.
- Speaking of the Chiefs, their offense is pretty darn weird. They’re sixth in points scored this season and they’ve gone for 26 and 31 points in their past two games. Still, they rank dead last among all teams with just one play to a skill position player over the past four games inside the 10-yard line. They’re either scoring long touchdowns with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce or they suck. We’ll see what happens in Week 15 against a top-seven pass defense in the Chargers.
Bryan Mears is an editor at FantasyLabs and host of the Daily Fantasy Flex podcast.