The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Bryan Woo (R) $9,000 Seattle Mariners (-155) vs. Kansas City Royals
With a hefty 11-game MLB slate, plenty of strong starting pitching plays are on the board. Two of the top options go head-to-head in the last matchup of the day, with Bryan Woo and the Mariners hosting Cole Ragans and the Royals.
Woo is tied for the most Pro Trends on the board, and he has the Royals have the lowest implied run total of any team on the scoreboard, according to our Vegas Dashboard. He also has the sixth-highest K Prediction and the second-highest median, ceiling and floor projections of all the scheduled starting pitchers.
Woo has gone 1-2 in his six starts this season with a 3.86 ERA, 3.76 FIP and 27 strikeouts in 35 innings. He’s been more effective at home, where he has posted 24.5 and 24.2 DraftKings points in his two starts this season. His overall numbers are dramatically impacted by his last start, when the Cardinals lit him up for seven runs on nine hits in three innings.
He’ll look to bounce back against the Royals, who should be a favorable matchup overall. They rank in the bottom third of the majors in runs scored and are hitting just .202 with an MLB-low 68 wRC+ on the road.
Coming home should help Woo get back on track against the Royals, who don’t have a lot of power in their regular lineup, setting him up as a strong stud to build around Friday night.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Joey Cantillo (L) $7,400 Cleveland Guardians (-110) at Athletics
Cantillo has the second-highest Plus/Minus projection of all the starting pitchers on the board this Friday, and the Guardians’ 26-year-old southpaw has been solid this season, averaging 15.6 DraftKings points per outing.
While he’ll be pitching at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park, Cantillo has produced at least 10 DraftKings points in every one of his six starts this season. He’s only 1-1 in those outings but has a solid 2.97 ERA and 3.74 SIERA. He has 34 strikeouts in 30.1 innings, so even though he doesn’t work especially deep into the game, the converted reliever can compensate by picking up punchouts.
Cantillo’s best start of the season was against the Royals, when he went 5.2 innings with nine strikeouts and 29.8 DraftKings points in his lone win. He has that kind of ceiling at his best, and he has been consistent enough to be a great value option.
The Athletics are not an ideal matchup, but they do have a top 10 K% in the majors this season, and against lefties, they’re hitting just .228 with a 78 wRC+ as a team.
Cantillo brings both a high floor and a high ceiling at under $7,500, and he makes sense to go with as a cheap play.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Cole Ragans (L) $8,300 Kansas City Royals (+130) at Seattle Mariners
The Royals’ Cole Ragans was an ace a few seasons ago, but he has been extremely volatile from start to start this season. For GPP lineups, his ceiling is worth the risk since his overall struggles should keep his ownership low.
To see his upside, all you have to do is look at his last start. He worked six innings at home against the Angels and posted a season-high 11 strikeouts while giving up just one run on five hits. He finished with 34.5 DraftKings points and earned his first win of the season.
His numbers for the season are pretty scary overall, though, since he has a 5.00 ERA, 6.06 FIP and a 17.2% barrel rate. That barrel rate is in the bottom three percent of the qualified pitchers in the majors, which has resulted in seven homers against him. In his 15 road innings, he has given up 14 runs on 13 hits and 17 walks, while serving up six homers.
Those road splits and overall numbers make him high-risk, especially against a volatile Mariners lineup. Seattle has a top 10 K% but also has an above-average wRC+, and the whole lineup has been very boom-or-bust all season.
Ragans has the highest Projected Plus/Minus and the highest ceiling projection of all Friday’s starting pitchers. While he is hard to trust for cash-game builds, his upside and high ceiling make him ideal for GPP rosters.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by projected points, belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
The Braves have the highest implied team total on the board this Friday night, as they head to Colorado and take on the Rockies. They’ll be taking on veteran lefty Jose Quintana ($5,500), who they know well from his time in the NL East. Quintana has a 4.91 ERA and 6.79 FIP overall in his four starts this year, and in five innings at home at Coors Field, he gave up six runs on eight hits with a pair of homers and a .411 wOBA against.
Ronald Acuna Jr. has the highest median and floor projections of all hitters in the aggregate projections described below. He is 3-for-19 with a homer in his career against Quintana and is 7-for-27 (.259) with three doubles, two stolen bases and an average of 9.7 DraftKings points in his last seven games.
The Braves offer lots of value on the infield as well, with Matt Olson posting double-digit DraftKings points in six of his last eight games and averaging 12.9 DraftKings points over that span. Ozzie Albies is also hot with double-digit DraftKings points in five of his last seven games (14.6 per game), and he is an impressive 9-for-19 with two doubles and three homers against Quintana in their past meetings.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Kyle Manzardo 1B ($2,900) Cleveland Guardians at Athletics (J.T. Ginn)
Mazardo has the highest Plus/Minus projection on the entire slate and brings great value at under $3,000 after his salary has dropped over $1,000 over the last month.
Even though he’s only hitting .186, he does have a .242 wOBA and has seven RBI, two doubles and a home run. He continues to hit cleanup for the Guardians, who still believe in the 25-year-old’s ability to get back on track.
Manzardo and the Guardians are all over the top values of the day, since they’re taking on J.T. Ginn at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park. Ginn has a 6.23 ERA and 6.71 FIP at home this season, with a .340 wOBA against him.
Here’s how the Guardians stack up against him in PlateIQ:
Adolis Garcia OF ($2,800) Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins (Eury Perez)
Adolis Garcia has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate behind only Manzardo and Acuna. He’s an outstanding value in the outfield and has been heating up for the Phillies, who took a flier on him this offseason.
Garcia has hit safely in six of his last seven games with at least eight DraftKings points in each of those six contests. He’s 9-for-26 (.346) over that seven-game span with a double, a triple, a home run, and an average of 9.3 DraftKings points per contest. On the season, he has a 50% hard-hit rate with an 8.8% barrel rate and 93 mph average exit velocity.
On Friday night, he’ll face righty Eury Perez, who has a 4.60 ERA and 5.05 FIP in his six starts this season. He has given up six homers this year, and righties have hit four of those blasts with a .368 wOBA.
Trevor Story SS ($3,300) Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros (Mike Burrows)
The Red Sox are back at Fenway Park for the first time since making a manager change, and Trevor Story has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus at SS in the aggregate projections.
Story has hit safely in four of his last five games, producing a total of 25 DraftKings points over those five games. He had a double and a walk on Wednesday against the Blue Jays and finished the team’s trip going 5-for-20 (.250) with a double and five strikeouts. He didn’t steal a base on the trip, but he had 31 stolen bases last season, so he as potential to produce in that category as well.
Like with Mazardo, Story’s salary has slipped to the point that he’s an excellent value. He’ll be in a good matchup against Burrows, who is 1-3 with a 6.25 ERA and 5.15 FIP in his six starts. On the road, Burrows has allowed nine runs in his 11 1/3 innings, while giving up a .431 wOBA and three home runs.
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Pictured: Bryan Woo
Photo Credit: Imagn
