Matthew Freedman publishes comprehensive positional breakdowns for the main NFL DFS slate throughout each week.
We’ll highlight one of the top players from each position (according to our Models) and his analysis of their outlooks below, but be sure to check out the full versions of each breakdown for the best cash-game and GPP plays for Week 13.
QB Breakdown
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
There’s so much to like about Mahomes.
Last season, he was easily the No. 1 fantasy quarterback with 26.2 FanDuel points per game. He provided a superabundance of value with his +7.11 Plus/Minus. He led the league with an ostentatious 9.6 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A). This season, he once again leads the league with a 9.6 AY/A. Despite missing most of Week 7 and all of Weeks 8-9, Mahomes leads the NFL with 11 games of 300 yards or more and three-plus touchdowns since last season. He’s still the league’s best passing quarterback.
>> Read the full QB breakdown here
RB Breakdown
Saquon Barkley, New York Giants
This year has been a disappointment for Saquon. I don’t hold against him that he suffered an injury early in Week 3 and missed all of Weeks 4-6. NFL players get injured, especially running backs.
But even when we remove his injury-shorted Week 3 game from the sample, Barkley has suffered some significant year-over-year regression (per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool).
- 2019 (seven games): 14.5 FanDuel points, -0.76 Plus/Minus, 42.9% Consistency Rating
- 2018 (16 games): 21.3 FanDuel points, +6.44 Plus/Minus, 81.3% Consistency Rating
Last year, Barkley salary-based expectations more than any other starting running back. He was prolific. This year, Barkley investors have lost money.
>> Read the full RB breakdown here
WR Breakdown
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Through three months, Evans has been outproduced by superstar slot teammate Chris Godwin, but Evans is on a Hall-of-Fame trajectory: He has nothing to be ashamed of.
Even though he has to share targets with Godwin, the incomparable Evans still ranks No. 6 in the league with 9.5 targets per game. What’s more, he’s No. 1 with 164.2 air yards and yards after the catch per game and also No. 1 with 1.2 end-zone targets per game.
With that kind of usage, it’s no surprise that he’s the No. 3 fantasy receiver with 19.9 DraftKings points per game.
>> Read the full WR breakdown here
TE Breakdown
Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams
Gerald Everett (knee) has been ruled out, making Higbee a viable option, especially on DraftKings, where he has a stone-minimum salary.
Over the past two weeks, Higbee has had season-high snap rates of 76% and 69%, and although he did nothing in Week 11, in Week 12 he had five receptions on six targets. With Everett out, Higbee could have similar usage this week, and given his matchup, he could do a lot with that volume. The Cardinals are No. 32 in the league with their coverage grade (per Pro Football Focus), and they are especially poor at defending tight ends, allowing an NFL-high 21.4 DraftKings points per game to the position.
>> Read the full TE breakdown here
