In this piece, I highlight wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
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Top NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are three wide receivers near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Ja’Marr Chase
- Diontae Johnson
- Rondale Moore
We’ll discuss why these three are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other wide receivers.
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Top Model NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Ja’Marr Chase ($8,600 DraftKings, $9,300 FanDuel): Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5) vs. Houston Texans (47 total)
Last Sunday Night was a game to forget for Ja’Marr Chase, as he caught just four of eight targets for 41 yards. Chase played through a back injury, which has lingered with him as he missed Wednesday’s practice and was limited Thursday.
The matchup appears difficult, with Houston surrendering the fourth-fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing receivers. However, they’ve allowed a bottom-ten catch rate and a healthy 8.0 yards per target, so they’re due to give up some solid scores.
Tee Higgins is expected to miss this contest, which may not mean too much for Chase. He already sees a ton of volume, but this may just mean Burrow is locked in on him in high-leverage situations.
We know Chase is a monster and can rack up the volume, as seen by his 44 targets in the three games prior to last week. He boasts the highest ceiling projection on the slate by three points and is the top receiver in our Tournament Model.
Diontae Johnson ($5,400 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) vs. Green Bay Packers (39 total)
Diontae Johnson has quietly put up great numbers since returning from IR, averaging 17.13 DraftKings points per game over the past three weeks. He’s seen elite volume in the past two weeks with 23 total targets. He’s clearly Kenny Pickett’s go-to guy, and he can consistently rack up the catches.
Johnson found the end zone for the first time in almost two years last week. Since returning, he’s seen an impressive 32% target share and 45% air yards share. We usually think of Johnson as mostly an underneath threat, but his air yards share shows more usage down the field.
Despite Green Bay allowing the eighth-fewest DraftKings points to opposing receivers, this matchup isn’t daunting. Green Bay traded away Rasul Douglas, they’re already without Eric Stokes, and it appears that Jaire Alexander is trending towards missing this matchup.
Johnson is simply too cheap for his current usage, especially in a matchup that is far better than it appears on paper. He’s the top option in our Cash Game Model.
Rondale Moore ($3,000 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel): Arizona Cardinals (+1.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (43 total)
Rondale Moore has been playing on about 70% of the snaps and seeing around five targets and multiple schemed rushing touches a game. If Clayton Tune were to start again, Moore would still be a viable punt option. He wouldn’t be a top-of-the-model guy, but he’d certainly be a viable punt.
However, with Kyler Murray back under center, Moore’s outlook drastically increased. He leads the position in Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary. The matchup isn’t incredible, as Atlanta has given up the tenth-fewest DraftKings points to opposing receivers. However, we’re not looking for a slate-breaking score at this tag.
Moore is still priced as if I was playing quarterback, and that isn’t the case anymore. Moore checks in as a great value option this week. He’s the top option in Chris Raybon and Sean Koerner’s Pro Models.
Other Notable NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
DeAndre Hopkins ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel): Tennessee Titans (+1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (39.5 total)
Tampa Bay has been a pass funnel all season long, allowing the second most DraftKings points to opposing receivers. Into town comes DeAndre Hopkins, fresh off an 11-target performance last week. Will Levis made some big throws in key spots against Pittsburgh, and he consistently went to Hopkins in big spots.
Hopkins still possesses a very high ceiling, as seen by his 37.8-point performance in Levis’ first start and 25-point performance in Week 5. Hopkins will likely fly somewhat under the radar but profiles as a solid tournament option this weekend.
Noah Brown ($3,700 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel): Houston Texans (+6.5) at Cincinnati Bengals (47 total)
If Robert Woods ends up suiting up, then it removes Noah Brown from my radar. Unless Nico Collins were to miss this game, who wasn’t at practice on Thursday. Brown is coming off of a stellar performance, catching six balls for 153 yards and a touchdown. With Robert Woods out the past two weeks, he’s run a route on 89% and 75% of the dropbacks.
It’ll be interesting to see how everything shakes out if Woods were to play and Collins were to miss. Regardless, if one of those two miss, it thrusts Brown into a great role where he is too cheap. If both play, I’m uninterested.
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My Favorite NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick(s)
Calvin Ridley ($5,600 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel): Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) vs. San Francisco 49ers (45 total)
Trevor Lawrence is my favorite quarterback on the week, so I have to like one of his pass-catchers, right? Correct. Calvin Ridley is that man. I love this game environment, and I love the matchup for Ridley.
Over half of his targets have been downfield, and he’s utilized consistently outside the numbers. San Francisco is allowing the most receptions per game and the third-most receiving yards per game to boundary receivers. To add a cherry on top, they’ve allowed the fourth-most DraftKings points to opposing receivers on the season.
Ridley is coming off of a 10-target performance before the bye. Ridley is a super talented performance, and it wasn’t that long ago when he was high-owned at $7,200 early in the year.
Tyler Boyd ($4,600 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel): Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5) vs. Houston Texans (47 total)
With Tee Higgins trending towards missing this contest, Tyler Boyd is too cheap. Boyd is always good for spike games here and there even with Higgins and Chase healthy.