Matthew Freedman publishes comprehensive positional breakdowns for the main NFL DFS slate throughout each week.
We’ll highlight one of the top players from each position (according to our Models) and his analysis of their outlooks below, but be sure to check out the full versions of each breakdown for the best cash-game and GPP plays for Week 10.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
So maybe the Patriots should’ve drafted L-Jax???
Last week, in just his 16th NFL start, the would-be wide receiver completed 73.9% of his 23 attempts for 163 yards, one touchdown and zero interceptions against the league-best Patriots defense.
While there’s nothing all that special about his passing performance, Jackson’s refusal to turn the ball over against such a ball-hawking defense was impressive, and when his 61 yards and two touchdowns on 16 carries are taken into account, Jackson comes out of his Week 9 Sunday Night Football matchup looking like the second coming of Michael Vick.
For the week, he was a top-four fantasy quarterback with 28.6 DraftKings and FanDuel points. And remember, this performance came against the defense that has held opposing quarterbacks to a league-low 9.6 DraftKings and 9.5 FanDuel points per game.
What a baller.
Saquon Barkley, New York Giants
I love Barkley, but let’s be honest: This year has been a disappointment. I don’t hold against him that he suffered an injury early in Week 3 and missed all of Weeks 4-6. NFL players get injured, especially running backs.
But even when we remove his injury-shorted Week 3 game from the sample, Barkley has suffered some significant year-over-year regression (per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool).
- 2019 (five games): 17.8 FanDuel points, +2.13 Plus/Minus, 60.0% Consistency Rating
- 2018 (16 games): 21.3 FanDuel points, +6.44 Plus/Minus, 81.3% Consistency Rating
No surprise: He is getting a little less volume and is a little less efficient with it, but the big difference is that he’s scoring 0.34 fewer touchdowns per game. That’s what happens when a running back’s team scores 23.1 points per game in one season and just 19.6 the next.
Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints
Even though Thomas has played most of the season without quarterback Drew Brees, Thomas still leads the league with 73 receptions and 875 yards receiving. And that’s not a fluke. He entered the season with an all-time NFL-high 321 receptions through his first three years.
Regardless of who throws him the ball, Thomas is simply a reception magnet. In his 26 games since last year (including playoffs), Thomas has an outlandish 82.6% catch rate on 10.0 targets per game. And this season, he leads all receivers with an 81.8% catch rate on contested targets (per Player Profiler). That is unbelievable.
And now with Brees back, Thomas could be even better.
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes will make his return to action after suffering a dislocated knee in Week 7. And with Mahomes back, Kelce is likely to be popular, especially since “Big Three” compatriots George Kittle and Zach Ertz as well as breakout superstars Darren Waller and Hunter Henry are off the main slate.
Even so, I probably won’t roster Kelce, at least not in cash games. I’d rather pay down at tight end so I can spend up elsewhere. But in guaranteed prize pools, Kelce is always in play.