The Week 10 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Nov. 10, at 1 p.m. ET. In this piece, I highlight the wide receivers who stand out in our large suite of analytical DFS Tools, most specifically the industry-leading FantasyLabs Models.
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Top Wide Receivers in the FantasyLabs Models
There are seven wide receivers atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.
- Michael Thomas: $8,300 DraftKings; $8,700 FanDuel
- Tyreek Hill: $7,700 DraftKings; $8,000 FanDuel
- Mike Evans: $7,600 DraftKings; $8,600 FanDuel
- Julio Jones: $7,500 DraftKings; $7,900 FanDuel
- Larry Fitzgerald: $5,500 DraftKings; $5,400 FanDuel
- Jamison Crowder: $5,000 DraftKings; $6,500 FanDuel
- Curtis Samuel: $4,600 DraftKings; $6,100 FanDuel
Michael Thomas: New Orleans Saints (-13) vs. Atlanta Falcons, 51 Over/Under
UPDATE (Nov. 9): RB Alvin Kamara (knee, ankle), WR Tre’Quan Smith (ankle) and Jared Cook (ankle) are in. Falcons CB Desmond Trufant (toe) is a questionable game-time decision.
Even though Thomas has played most of the season without quarterback Drew Brees, Thomas still leads the league with 73 receptions and 875 yards receiving. And that’s not a fluke. He entered the season with an all-time NFL-high 321 receptions through his first three years.
Regardless of who throws him the ball, Thomas is simply a reception magnet. In his 26 games since last year (including playoffs), Thomas has an outlandish 82.6% catch rate on 10.0 targets per game. And this season, he leads all receivers with an 81.8% catch rate on contested targets (per Player Profiler). That is unbelievable.
And now with Brees back, Thomas could be even better. In his two full games this year with Brees, he was unstoppable (per RotoViz Game Splits App).
- With Brees (two games): 12 targets, 10.5 receptions, 117.5 yards, 0.5 touchdowns
- Without Brees (six games): 10.8 targets, 8.7 receptions, 107.7 yards, 0.5 touchdowns
For the season, Thomas is the No. 1 fantasy wide receiver with 24.5 DraftKings points per game, and he has been a strong source of value with his +7.35 Plus/Minus value.
Even without Brees, he’s had an extremely high floor this year, thanks to his target volume. Wide receiver production can be volatile, but Thomas has been at least a fantasy WR2 every week (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).
In both cash games and guaranteed prize pools, he is a strong option this week.
Thomas should be fully rested and ready coming off his Week 9 bye, and he has a great matchup. The Falcons are dead last in the league with a 36.4 coverage grade (per Pro Football Focus), and they have allowed the fourth-most DraftKings points to opposing wide receivers with 42.9 per game.
The Falcons secondary is all jumbled. Pro-Bowl strong safety Keanu Neal (Achilles, injured reserve) is out. No. 1 corner Desmond Trufant (toe) has missed three straight games. He practiced on a limited basis on Wednesday and might be able to play — the Falcons are also coming off a bye week — but he’s far from certain to suit up.
And even if Trufant does play, that might not be a positive development: If active, he likely won’t be 100%, and before his injury, he allowed an NFL-high five touchdowns in Weeks 1-5.
Before their bye, the Falcons in Week 8 radically reorganized their secondary in an attempt to stabilize it: Ricardo Allen moved from free safety to strong safety, slot corner Damontae Kazee shifted to free safety, fourth-round backup corner Kendall Sheffield slid from the perimeter into the slot and special-teams veteran Blidi Wreh-Wilson started at left corner.
With two backup corners in the game and multiple defensive backs positioned at new spots, the Falcons secondary could struggle a lot as a coordinated unit of individual players who need to be on the same page.
Thomas is likely to match up most with cornerback Isaiah Oliver, who has been the one constant in the Falcons secondary this year. But Thomas moves around the formation enough to ensure that he will get his shot at all the corners, and the second-year Oliver is hardly someone to fear.
In his six games against head coach Dan Quinn’s Falcons, Thomas has averaged 21.6 DraftKings points with a +5.34 Plus/Minus (per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool).
Plus, the Saints have a slate-high 32-point implied Vegas total. That’s a great number for any main slate, but it’s especially strong given that six teams are on bye and the prime-time games feature some of the league’s best teams.
Points upon points will be scored at the Coors Field of fantasy football. With Brees at quarterback, the Saints have a 64-45-2 record to the over at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, good for an A-graded 15.2% return on investment (including postseason, per Bet Labs).
And those points should trickle down to Thomas, who has been his best at the Superdome.
- Home (31 games): 20.1 DraftKings points, +4.05 Plus/Minus
- Away (27 games): 18.8 DraftKings points, +2.67 Plus/Minus
Other than his high salary, it’s hard to come up with a reason not to roster Thomas, who has position-high median and ceiling projections in our Models.
Thomas is the No. 1 wide receiver in the Bales, Raybon and SportsGeek Models for DraftKings, where he has a position-high eight Pro Trends. Thomas is also the top option in the Levitan, Koerner, Raybon and SportsGeek Models for FanDuel, where he has an elite 94% Bargain Rating.
Tyreek Hill: Kansas City Chiefs (-6) at Tennessee Titans, 48 O/U
UPDATE (Nov. 9): QB Patrick Mahomes (knee) is in after practicing fully all week. LT Eric Fisher (groin) is still out. RG Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (ankle) is questionable. Titans DT Jurrell Casey (shoulder) and LB Jayon Brown (groin) are out.
Quarterback Patrick Mahomes (knee) is expected to return to action after suffering a dislocated knee in Week 7. He practiced in full on Wednesday.
With Mahomes back, his No. 1 receiver becomes incredibly enticing.
As bizarre as this sounds, we’re at the halfway point in the season, and yet Mahomes and Hill have played just one full game together because of how their injury schedules have aligned. Hill played just 12 snaps in Week 1, and then he missed Weeks 2-5. Hill returned in Week 6, but then Mahomes suffered an in-game injury the following week and missed the next two games.
How did Tyreek do in his one full game this year with Mahomes?
- Fantasy production: WR3 overall, 22.5 FanDuel points, +11.7 Plus/Minus
- Football production: 5-80-2 receiving on 10 targets
For Tyreek, pretty typical.
In his full 19 career games with Mahomes (including playoffs), Hill has averaged 17.8 FanDuel points, 97.9 scrimmage yards and 0.89 all-purpose touchdowns on 8.6 targets, 5.3 receptions, 1.2 carries and 1.4 punt returns per game.
Since returning in Week 6, Tyreek has been a fantasy WR1 in three of four games despite playing mostly with backup quarterback Matt Moore, who literally was an assistant high-school football coach in August.
Over the past month, Hill has averaged 95 yards from scrimmage and one receiving touchdown on 8.3 targets, five receptions and 0.5 carries per game.
For a player with Hill’s skill set, matchups almost don’t matter, but all the same, I like his matchup. The Titans have a funnel defense that ranks No. 3 against the run but No. 20 against the pass (per Football Outsiders’ DVOA).
Right cornerback Malcolm Butler (wrist, IR) suffered an in-game injury last week and is out for the season. In his place, backup corner LeShaun Sims is a total liability. Last year in this defense, he allowed a 72.2% catch rate, and in his one game this year as a corner in nickel packages, he yielded a 5-76-1 receiving line on seven targets. For the year, he has a subpar 42.1 PFF coverage grade.
Hill plays most in the slot, but HC Andy Reid does a good job of lining Hill up across the formation, so he will face each of the Titans corners at different points. Against left corner Adoree’ Jackson and slot corner Logan Ryan, Hill will likely be his ordinarily dominant self. When he matches up with Sims, Hill could be transcendent.
I expect Hill to be popular, especially on FanDuel, where he has a strong 95% Bargain Rating and a top-three mark with eight Pro Trends and is the No. 1 receiver in the Freedman Model.
Mike Evans: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals, 52 O/U
UPDATE (Nov. 9): Cardinals slot CB Tramaine Brock (hamstring) and defensive end Brooks Reed (hamstring, IR) are out.
Evans hasn’t been at the top of one of our main-slate Models since Week 12 of last season. That seems far too long of a stretch for a wide receiver who will be in the Hall of Fame.
There’s so much to like about Evans this week.
Even though he has to share targets with superstar slot receiver Chris Godwin, the incomparable Evans still ranks No. 3 in the league with 10.4 targets per game. What’s more, he’s No. 1 with 175.9 air yards and yards after the catch per game (per AirYards.com) and also No. 1 with 1.5 end-zone targets per game (per PFF).
With that kind of usage, it’s no surprise that he’s the No. 2 fantasy receiver with 23.4 DraftKings points per game.
On a weekly basis, Evans is a volatile player. No doubt about it.
This season, he has been a fantasy WR1 in five weeks and no better than a WR3 in three weeks. In one game, he had zero receptions on just three targets. To quote Shakespeare: “Zounds!”
But his year-over-year production has been incredibly consistent.
- 2014 (15 games): 1,051 yards
- 2015 (15 games): 1,206 yards
- 2016 (16 games): 1,321 yards
- 2017 (15 games): 1,001 yards
- 2018 (16 games): 1,524 yards
- 2019 (eight games): 842 yards
Evans is on pace to join Randy Moss as the only other player in NFL history to open his career with six consecutive 1,000-yard receiving campaigns.
Like Thanos, Evans is inevitable.
Since his target-deficient no-show against the Saints in Week 5, the Bucs have made it a point to get the ball to Evans: Over his past three games, he has averaged 158 yards receiving and one touchdown on 15 targets and 10.7 receptions.
Because of Winston’s inconsistency, Evans has been a matchup-influenced producer this year. Against teams with a top-12 pass defense DVOA — 49ers (1st), Panthers (3rd, twice) and Saints (12th) — he has struggled mightily.
Against his remaining opponents — Rams (15th), Titans (20th), Seahawks (21st) and Giants (27th) — he has excessively outperformed:
- Top 12 pass defense (four games): 8.9 DraftKings points, -7.24 Plus/Minus, 25% Consistency Rating, 46.3 yards and zero touchdowns on 8.25 targets and 3.8 receptions
- Non-top 12 pass defense (four games): 37.9 DraftKings points, +22.8 Plus/Minus, 100% Consistency Rating, 164.3 yards and 1.75 touchdowns on 12.5 targets and 8.8 receptions
The Cardinals are No. 28 in pass defense DVOA and No. 30 with a 42.7 PFF coverage grade. Right now, I have Divinyls lyrics running through my head.
In theory, Evans has a tough matchup against shutdown cornerback Patrick Peterson — but in his three weeks since finishing a season-opening six-game suspension, Peterson has been rough, allowing an 82.4% catch rate, 204 yards and two touchdowns.
In two career games, Evans has put up a 9-165-2 receiving line against Peterson’s Cardinals. He hasn’t been efficient, needing 26 targets to get that production. But with volume like that, does efficiency really matter?
This is a #RevengeGame for HC Bruce Arians against his former team, and Bucs-Cardinals has a slate-high 52-point over/under. Bang a gong.
Evans will likely be one of the slate’s most popular receivers. Long-term team-specific production patterns can be analyzed with our FantasyLabs Correlations Tool, and over the past year, Evans has had a strong 0.55 correlation with Winston. If Evans has had a big game, Winston probably has as well. For GPPs, use our Lineup Builder to stack Evans with Winston.
Just last week, Evans had a Millionaire Maker-winning 180-yard performance.
Evans is the No. 1 wideout on DraftKings, where he has a top-two mark with seven Pro Trends.
Julio Jones: Atlanta Falcons (+13) at New Orleans Saints, 51 O/U
UPDATE (Nov. 9): Quarterback Matt Ryan (ankle) is in. RB Ito Smith (neck) is out. LG James Carpenter (knee) and RG Jamon Brown (foot) are in.
Quarterback Matt Ryan (ankle) is expected to play this week coming off the bye. He missed Week 8, but he got in a limited practice session on Wednesday.
But even if Ryan doesn’t play, I like Julio a lot this week. Playing opposite of Michael Thomas, he’s $800 cheaper on DraftKings and FanDuel and likely to have a dramatically lower ownership rate. Whereas Thomas might be owned at 30-40%, Julio could be available at 13-16%.
Is Thomas really that much better than Julio? Is he actually better than Julio at all?
Julio is coming off a 10-152-0 receiving performance on 12 targets with the mediocre Matt Schaub at quarterback, and last year, he led the league with 1,677 yards receiving.
In fact, he’s progressively led the league in receiving since 2014.
- 2018-19: 2,389 yards
- 2017-19: 3,833 yards
- 2016-19: 5,242 yards
- 2015-19: 7,113 yards
- 2014-19: 8,706 yards
His dominance is now so routine that it’s almost dumbfoundingly boring.
For the year, Julio is just the No. 8 fantasy wide receiver with 15.0 FanDuel points per game, but he’s played better than his production suggests. He’s No. 3 with 140.9 air yards and yards after the catch per game — just behind Mike Evans and Kenny Golladay and just ahead of Cooper Kupp and Chris Godwin.
Julio is still among the elite.
In what could be a high-scoring game, Julio very much has the potential to go off.
Over the past half decade, Julio has had strong reverse splits, and the Falcons are underdogs.
- Underdog (36 games): 18.5 FanDuel points, +3.87 Plus/Minus, 61.1% Consistency Rating
- Favorite (55 games): 14.5 FanDuel points, -0.30 Plus/Minus, 45.5% Consistency Rating
Julio is likely to see shadow coverage from cornerback Marshon Lattimore, who started out the season poorly but has been a lockdown machine over the past six weeks. For the year, he’s allowed a catch rate of just 59.3%. For his career, 59.2%.
But I’m not that worried about the matchup. Julio has faced the Saints with Lattimore four times. In those games, he’s averaged 122.5 yards on 10.5 targets and seven receptions. Naturally, Julio has yet to score against Lattimore, but that probably says more about Julio’s past opportunity than about Lattimore’s ability to shut him down.
With that kind of yardage and usage, Julio will find the end zone eventually against Lattimore. In all four of their matchups, Julio has scored at least 12 FanDuel points.
Jones is the No. 1 receiver in the Bales Model for FanDuel, where he has a position-high nine Pro Trends.
Larry Fitzgerald: Arizona Cardinals (+4.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 52 O/U
UPDATE (Nov. 9): RB David Johnson (ankle) is in. RB Chase Edmonds (hamstring) is out. RT Justin Murray (knee) is expected to be out. Bucs CB Carlton Davis (hip) is out.
It’s hard to get all that excited about Fitz: He had 21.3 FanDuel points in Week 1, but since then he has averaged 7.5. Over his past three games, 3.1 with a -3.14 Plus/Minus. That’s terrifying. In that span, the margin by which he’s underperformed expectations has been greater than the actual fantasy production he’s provided.
He’s been highly inefficient with his targets.
On a per-game basis, he is No. 31 with 12.0 expected fantasy points but No. 149 with -0.6 fantasy points over expectation (per RotoViz Screener).
And since wide receiver Christian Kirk returned to the lineup two weeks ago, Fitz has averaged just four targets per game.
Fitz is really slowing down.
But he has two factors in his favor this week.
First, the Cardinals played on Thursday Night Football in Week 9, which means that Fitz has the benefit of the mini bye. With three extra days of rest between games, hopefully he’ll have something approaching his early-season form.
Additionally, he has a great matchup. The Bucs have allowed a league-high 37.9 FanDuel points per game to opposing wide receivers. Coaches often behave irrationally, but I expect the Cardinals to throw a lot in this game. The Bucs have one of the league’s most extreme funnel defenses. They are No. 1 against the run (-41.5% DVOA) but No. 26 against the pass (23.1% DVOA).
Defensively, the Bucs are No. 2 overall with 480.4 air yards and yards after the catch allowed per game.
Given the circumstances, the Cardinals have little incentive to run, and if they throw more than usual, some of those extra targets are likely to go to Fitz, who’s in a great situation in the slot.
After spending most of his career on the perimeter, cornerback Vernon Hargreaves III played as a full-time slot defender for the first time last week. That didn’t go well. He significantly contributed to Tyler Lockett’s slate-best performance, personally allowing eight receptions and 105 yards on the 10 targets in his coverage.
Of course, Hargreaves also yielded receiving lines of 10-133-1 and 5-100-1 in Weeks 2 & 5, so it’s pretty clear that he’s just not a good cornerback regardless of where he lines up. He’s allowed a league-high 582 yards receiving, and his 42.0 PFF coverage grade is unspeakably poor for a first-round cornerback in his fourth year.
Fitz isn’t the player he once was, but he could have a fiery Game of Thrones-style performance against Vernon of the House Hargreaves, Third of His Name.
Fitzgerald is the No. 1 wide receiver in the CSURAM88 Model for FanDuel, where he has a position-high 98% Bargain Rating.
Jamison Crowder: New York Jets (+2.5) vs. New York Giants, 44.5 O/U
UPDATE (Nov. 9): RB Le’Veon Bell (knee) and TE Chris Herndon (hamstring) are expected to play. LT Kelvin Beachum (ankle) and RG Brian Winters (knee, shoulder) are questionable while C Ryan Kalil (knee, elbow) is doubtful.
¡Ay, caramba! I don’t want to write about Crowder, and you don’t want to read about him, so let’s get through this as quickly as possible.
Crowder has three main factors in his favor this week.
First, he’s relatively easy to acquire. He’s not expensive in a vacuum, and he’ll have a single-digit ownership rate. If you roster Crowder, you can afford to pay up for a lot of other players.
Also, he has great splits with quarterback Sam Darnold, who missed a month earlier in the season with mononucleosis.
- With Darnold (five games): 14.9 DraftKings points, 9.0 targets, 7.0 receptions, 66.0 yards, 0.20 touchdowns
- Without Darnold (three games): 5.2 DraftKings points, 4.7 targets, 2.7 receptions, 25.0 yards, zero touchdowns
In his five Darnold-blessed games, Crowder has two performances of 20-plus DraftKings points. For a guy with a low ceiling, he has tall doorways.
Finally, he has a great matchup. The Giants have a funnel defense that ranks No. 14 against the run (-12.4% DVOA) but No. 27 against the pass (24.2% DVOA). They have allowed the third-most DraftKings points to opposing wide receivers with 43.9 per game.
In the slot, Crowder has a real edge. Some of the biggest games the Giants have allowed have come from receivers who played primarily in the slot against them.
- Randall Cobb (Week 1): 16.9 DraftKings points, 4-69-1 receiving on five targets
- Cole Beasley (Week 2): 12.3 DraftKings points, 4-83-0 receiving on four targets
- Adam Thielen (Week 5): 35.0 DraftKings points, 7-130-2 receiving on eight targets
- Julian Edelman (Week 6): 23.3 DraftKings points, 9-113-0 receiving on 15 targets
- Danny Amendola (Week 8): 17.5 DraftKings points, 8-95-0 receiving on eight targets
There’s no way to say this nicely: Slot cornerback Grant Haley is not a starter-caliber player. Of all the guys still getting regular playing time, no corner has allowed more than Haley’s 44.1 slot yards receiving per game.
Haley is a second-year undrafted player who owns a 45.5 PFF coverage grade and has allowed an 86.5% catch rate this year. When facing a receiver who is even just average, he is utterly outmatched.
With his matchup, Crowder actually has 10-100-1 upside.
Here’s something I never thought I’d write: Crowder is the No. 1 DraftKings receiver in the Freedman Model.
Curtis Samuel: Carolina Panthers (+5.5) at Green Bay Packers, 47 O/U
UPDATE (Nov. 9): Samuel is in. LT Greg Little (concussion) is still out. Packers CB Jaire Alexander (groin) and S Adrian Amos (hamstring) are questionable but expected to play.
Samuel (hamstring) played through a minor soft-tissue injury last week and practiced in full on Thursday, so there’s no worry that he’ll miss this game. He’s playing.
I’m personally not that interested in Samuel for this slate, but I get why he’s popping in a couple of our Models.
He has solid splits with quarterback Kyle Allen. In the backup’s seven starts (including Week 17 last year), Samuel has averaged 13.4 DraftKings points per game with 57.1 yards and 0.71 touchdowns from scrimmage per game.
And his upside is significant, given that he is No. 4 in the league with 116.5 air yards per game.
The Packers are No. 10 with a 73.8 PFF coverage grade, so it’s not as if they’re obviously exploitable, but most of the receivers to have success against them have been guys with high air yardage.
- Allen Robinson (Week 1): 20.2 DraftKings points, 97.3 air yards per game (t-13th)
- Amari Cooper (Week 5): 42.6 DraftKings points, 95.1 air yards per game (18th, includes partial Week 6)
- Kenny Golladay (Week 6): 20.1 DraftKings points, 124.3 air yards per game (2nd)
- Tyreek Hill (Week 8): 14.1 DraftKings points, 109.4 air yards per game (6th, includes partial Week 1)
- Mike Williams (Week 9): 17.3 DraftKings points, 101.9 air yards per game (9th)
With a little luck or a little more volume, Samuel could have a big day against the Packers.
For the past three games, the Packers haven’t used No. 1 corner Jaire Alexander in shadow coverage, but based on where he’s lined up recently, I expect that he’ll play most of his snaps against Samuel.
Although the first-round second-year corner has been dominant for stretches, he’s prone to the blowup game: In Week 5 against the Cowboys, he allowed 8-201-1 receiving on 12 targets. Last week against the Chargers, 4-129-0 on five targets.
Alexander can be beaten, and the speedy Samuel (4.31-second 40-yard dash) looks like the kind of player who can beat him.
Samuel is the No. 1 receiver in the CSURAM88 and Koerner Models for DraftKings, where he has a solid 87% Bargain Rating.
Upside Wide Receivers for Guaranteed Prize Pools
Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($7,400 DK, $8,200 FD): Godwin is No. 3 with 17.8 FanDuel points and No. 6 with 132.6 air yards and yards after the catch combined per game. Despite trailing Mike Evans in targets (83-72), the slot-centered Godwin leads the team with 54 receptions and is No. 4 in the league with 95.8 receiving yards per game. Godwin leads all receivers with his floor projection on FanDuel, where he has six Pro Trends. UPDATE (Nov. 9): Cardinals slot CB Tramaine Brock (hamstring) and defensive end Brooks Reed (hamstring, IR) are out.
Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams ($7,400 DK, $8,100 FD): Kupp easily leads the Rams with 87 targets, 58 receptions, 792 yards receiving, and 1,068 air yards and yards after the catch combined. In his 16 games since 2018, Kupp has posted a 98-1,358-11 receiving line and 20.0 DraftKings points per game. Although quarterback Jared Goff tends to struggle on the road, Kupp has averaged 20.7 DraftKings points in his nine games away from Los Angeles since last year. Over the past two weeks, the Steelers have allowed three touchdowns to slot receivers. UPDATE (Nov. 9): WR Brandin Cooks (concussion) is out. RB Malcolm Brown (ankle) is in.
Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions ($7,000 DK, $7,700 FD): Since their Week 5 bye, the Lions have shifted toward the passing game and sported a 65.5% pass-play rate in Weeks 6-9. Over that span, Golladay has put up a 16-397-3 receiving line. For the year, he ranks No. 2 with 145.8 air yards and yards after the catch combined and No. 4 with 1.38 end-zone targets per game. In his 16 games since the Lions traded wide receiver Golden Tate last season, Golladay has a 75-1,226-9 receiving line. In his 12 career games with a touchdown, he’s averaged 22.5 DraftKings points. UPDATE (Nov. 9): QB Matthew Stafford (hip, back) is officially questionable but expected to play.
Marvin Jones, Detroit Lions ($6,200 DK, $6,600 FD): Jones is a boom/bust receiver with three games of 25-plus DraftKings points this year. Since the Lions opened up the offense coming out of the Week 5 bye, Jones has a 24-258-5 receiving line. The Bears have allowed 23.6 DraftKings points per game the three receivers they’ve faced who are most comparable to Jones in playing style and build — Emmanuel Sanders, Paul Richardson and Stefon Diggs (all of whom were cheaper than Jones is now). UPDATE (Nov. 9): QB Matthew Stafford (hip, back) is officially questionable but expected to play.
John Brown, Buffalo Bills ($6,000 DK, $5,800 FD): The Abolitionist has a team-high 60 targets, 42 receptions, 603 yards receiving and 972 air yards and yards after the catch combined. Brown has a career-high 70% catch rate and has hit his salary-based expectations in each game this year with a +4.45 Plus/Minus on FanDuel, where he has an elite 98% Bargain Rating. No. 1 cornerback Denzel Ward hasn’t shadowed since return from injury two games ago, so JoBro will likely run most of his routes at Greedy Williams, a rookie corner with four NFL games of experience. Smoke ’em if you got ’em. UPDATE (Nov. 9): Browns DE Olivier Vernon (knee) and CB Eric Murray (knee) are out. S Damarious Randall (hamstring) is questionable.
Golden Tate, New York Giants ($5,900 DK, $6,300 FD): The sample is small, but Tate leads the Giants with 42 targets, 29 receptions, 322 yards receiving and 462 air yards and yards after the catch combined since returning in Week 5. The Giants will likely be without wide receiver Sterling Shepard (concussion) and tight end Evan Engram (foot), so Tate should continue to be featured. For his career, slot corner Brian Poole has allowed a 72.2% catch rate. UPDATE (Nov. 9): WR Sterling Shepard (concussion), TE Evan Engram (foot) and C Jon Halapio (hamstring) are out. RT Mike Remmers (back) is doubtful. Jets LB C.J. Mosley (groin) and CB Trumaine Johnson (ankle, IR) are out while LB Neville Hewitt and CB Darryl Roberts (calf) are doubtful.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh Steelers ($5,800 DK, $6,800 FD): JuJu will have a diminished ownership rate against the Rams after his scoreless 16-yard performance last week. Despite his 2019 struggles without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, the third-year receiver has had 75-yards receiving in five of eight games. Playing primarily in the slot, JuJu will likely avoid the shadow coverage of No. 1 cornerback Jalen Ramsey. JuJu leads the position with his Leverage Scores. UPDATE (Nov. 9): Conner and RB Benny Snell (knee) are out as is LG Ramon Foster (concussion). RB Trey Edmunds (ribs) is in.
Robert Woods, Los Angeles Rams ($5,600 DK, $6,900 FD): Woods has yet to score a receiving touchdown, and he’s been no better than a fantasy WR3 in every game this year but one. But in his 33 Rams games as a favorite, he’s averaged 16.0 DraftKings points per game with a +3.53 Plus/Minus. With wide receiver Brandin Cooks (concussion) on the sideline, Woods could see extra targets. UPDATE (Nov. 9): WR Brandin Cooks (concussion) is out. RB Malcolm Brown (ankle) is in.
Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons ($5,400 DK, $5,300 FD): Ridley has averaged 21.3 DraftKings points in his 11 career games with a touchdown. In his two divisional matchups against the Saints last year, Ridley averaged 32.9 DraftKings points, 119.5 yards and two touchdowns on 10.5 targets and 7.5 receptions per game. Ridley hosed cornerbacks Marshon Lattimore and Eli Apple so hard they probably still smell like dog-friendly fire hydrants. UPDATE (Nov. 9): Ryan is in. RB Ito Smith (neck) is out. LG James Carpenter (knee) and RG Jamon Brown (foot) are in.
Zach Pascal, Indianapolis Colts ($5,300 DK, $6,400 FD): Wide receivers T.Y. Hilton (calf) and Parris Campbell (hand) are out, so Pascal will get plenty of action as the top pass-catching option. Since last year, Pascal has averaged 6.8 targets in his four games without Hilton. The Dolphins secondary is a mess: No. 1 corner Xavien Howard (knee, IR) is out. Perimeter corner Ken Webster (ankle) missed last week and has yet to practice this week. In their place, the Dolphins have been starting undrafted rookie third-stringer Nik Needham and undrafted third-year special-teamer Ryan Lewis. For good reason, the Dolphins are No. 32 in pass defense DVOA. UPDATE (Nov. 9): QB Jacoby Brissett (knee) is out. QB Brian Hoyer is expected to start. Dolphins CB Ken Webster (ankle) and S Reshad Jones (chest) are out.
Christian Kirk, Arizona Cardinals ($5,200 DK, $5,700 FD): Kirk hasn’t scored yet this season, but he has a team-high 8.8 targets, 5.7 receptions, 54.8 yards receiving and 99.8 air yards and yards after the catch combined per game. Last week, the Cardinals for the first time this year played Kirk primarily on the perimeter, where he’s likely to face raw rookie cornerbacks Sean Murphy-Bunting and Jamel Dean. The Bucs have allowed a league-high 48.0 DraftKings points per game to opposing wide receivers. UPDATE (Nov. 9): RB David Johnson (ankle) is in. RB Chase Edmonds (hamstring) is out. RT Justin Murray (knee) is expected to be out. Bucs CB Carlton Davis (hip) is out.
Marquise Brown, Baltimore Ravens ($5,100 DK, $5,300 FD): Brown has just one fantasy WR1 performance this season, but he’s first on the team with 119.8 air yards and yards after the catch combined per game. No. 1 corner Dre Kirkpatrick (knee) has been out since Week 7 and is yet to return to practice. The Bengals are No. 30 in pass defense DVOA, and Hollywood has an advantageous matchup against perimeter fill-in B.W. Webb. UPDATE (Nov. 9): Jackson missed practice on Thursday with an illness but practiced fully on Friday. He’s playing. WR Marquise Brown (ankle, thigh) popped up on the Friday injury report with a questionable designation, but he got in a limited practice and is expected to play. Bengals CB Dre Kirkpatrick (knee) is out.
DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins ($4,800 DK, $5,800 FD): Parker has eight targets per game since quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick returned to the starting lineup in Week 7, and he’s likely to have a larger share of the target market now with wide receiver Preston Williams (knee, IR) done for the year. As unlikely as this sounds, Parker is pacing for an almost respectable 800-yard, eight-touchdown campaign. Cornerback Pierre Desir (hamstring) missed Weeks 8-9 and missed practice on Thursday. Fifth-round rookie backup and Star Wars character Marvell Tell III will offer a juicy matchup to Parker if Desir is out. UPDATE (Nov. 9): Colts S Malik Hooker (knee) is in while CB Pierre Desir (hamstring) is questionable but seems likely not to play.
Robby Anderson, New York Jets ($4,700 DK, $5,900 FD): Anderson has just a 7-86-0 receiving line over his past three games, but this week he gets a great matchup against the Giants, who are No. 28 with a 45.2 PFF coverage grade. No. 1 cornerback Janoris Jenkins hasn’t shadowed since Week 3, so Anderson will primarily face rookie DeAndre Baker, who has been exploited more than almost any other corner with 578 yards and six touchdowns receiving allowed. Anderson has scored a touchdown in 35.3% of his games with quarterback Sam Darnold, averaging 23.2 DraftKings points across the sample. UPDATE (Nov. 9): RB Le’Veon Bell (knee) and TE Chris Herndon (hamstring) are expected to play. LT Kelvin Beachum (ankle) and RG Brian Winters (knee, shoulder) are questionable while C Ryan Kalil (knee, elbow) is doubtful.
Auden Tate, Cincinnati Bengals ($4,000 DK, $5,300 FD): Wide receiver A.J. Green (ankle) has once again been ruled out, so Tate will continue play as the team’s top perimeter option. Since entering the starting lineup in Week 3, Tate has averaged 64.2 yards on 8.7 targets and 4.3 receptions per game. He has just one touchdown on the year but is No. 4 with 10 end-zone targets. Even with rookie quarterback Ryan Finley making his first NFL start, Tate could be in line for some positive touchdown regression. UPDATE (Nov. 9): Ravens S Earl Thomas (knee) is questionable but expected to play.
Ted Ginn Jr., New Orleans Saints ($3,700 DK, $5,300 FD): Ginn is largely a DFS afterthought, but since 2015 he’s averaged 0.33 touchdowns per game (including playoffs). With the Saints, he’s had 12-plus DraftKings points in two of three games against the Falcons over the past three years. He has a 91% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, offers a lot of roster flexibility and will have a sub-5% ownership rate. UPDATE (Nov. 9): RB Alvin Kamara (knee, ankle), WR Tre’Quan Smith (ankle) and Jared Cook (ankle) are in. Falcons CB Desmond Trufant (toe) is a questionable game-time decision.
Russell Gage, Atlanta Falcons ($3,400 DK, $4,700 FD): After the Falcons traded wide receiver Mohamed Sanu, the sixth-round second-year LSU project saw his first action in Week 8 as the team’s slot man, and he responded with a 7-58-0 receiving line on nine targets. Slot corner P.J. Williams (suspension) is expected to return this week, but of the three Saints corners, he’s the weakest. Since last year, when he transitioned from the perimeter to the slot, Williams has allowed a 72.2% catch rate. UPDATE (Nov. 9): Quarterback Matt Ryan (ankle) is in. RB Ito Smith (neck) is out. LG James Carpenter (knee) and RG Jamon Brown (foot) are in.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
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