This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Sonny Gray: Pitcher, Yankees
Jose Berrios stands out as the obvious top pitcher on tonight’s slate, but Gray looks like a viable pivot. He’s failed to exceed salary-based expectations in each of his first two games this season, and DraftKings has responded by lowering his salary by $2,000 since the start of the year, but the Statcast data from his first two starts have been outstanding, particularly his average distance of 160 feet. It represents a differential of -31 feet when compared to his 12-month average, and pitchers with comparable distance differentials and salary decreases have historically been excellent buy-low candidates:
His K Prediction of 6.1 trails only Berrios’ on the slate, and his Bargain Rating of 69% is the top mark on DraftKings. He’s a slight underdog in a tough matchup vs. the Red Sox, but that should result in reduced ownership for guaranteed prize pools.
Eduardo Escobar: Third Base, Twins
The Twins exploded for nine runs on Wednesday and will likely be a popular team to stack on Thursday’s small slate. They currently lead all teams with an implied team total of 4.9 runs:
FantasyLabs has a proprietary metric called Recent Batted Ball Luck, which measures the difference between a player’s percentile rank in batted-ball distance and fantasy scoring over the past 15 days. It can be used to identify potentially undervalued hitters like Max Kepler, who had been slumping from a fantasy perspective but making excellent contact before busting out for two home runs on Wednesday. Maybe Thursday will bring a change of fortune for Escobar. He’s posted positive 15-day/12-month differentials in distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate, which suggests he’s deserved better than his average Plus/Minus of +1.16 to start the season. He leads all the Twins batters with nine Pro Trends on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 91%.
Brandon Belt: First Base, Giants
Very rarely does a trip to San Diego represent an upgrade in Park Factor, but that’s exactly what’s happening today with Belt. He’s facing Padres right-hander Bryan Mitchell, and Belt has historically been a nice value when facing a right-hander on the road:
He’s posted a .357 wOBA and .211 ISO against righties over the past 12 months, and Mitchell has an abysmal 1.90 WHIP over the same time frame. Belt is also in solid recent form, evidenced by a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +12 feet. He makes for an intriguing target on FanDuel, where his $2,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Brandon Belt
Photo Credit: Andrew Villa-USA Today Sports
