The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a split slate: There are six-game FanDuel and eight-game DraftKings early slates staring at 1:05 p.m. ET and a six-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Today’s slate features two of the preeminent pitchers in baseball in Max Scherzer and Corey Kluber:
Both pitchers are available on the early slate, although Kluber is on DraftKings only. Both have dominated to begin the season, averaging a Plus/Minus of at least +15.15 through their first three starts on FanDuel. They should be sufficiently popular on today’s slate.
Let’s start with Scherzer. He’s the priciest option on both sites and has arguably the better matchup against the Colorado Rockies. Their projected lineup has posted a strikeout rate of 29.9% against right-handers over the past 12 months, and Scherzer is one of the top strikeout arms in the game. He was second in the league with 268 strikeouts in 2017, and his K Prediction of 11.0 is the top mark on today’s slate. Historically, pitchers with a comparable K Predictions have been awesome values on DraftKings:
Scherzer has personally fit the above trend seven previous times, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.67 in those situations. Scherzer is also a huge -191 favorite, which is the third-best mark on today’s slate.
If there is a concern with Scherzer, it’s his recent Statcast data. He’s allowed an average batted-ball distance of 221 feet over his first three starts, which represents a differential of +8 feet when compared to his 12-month average. FantasyLabs has a proprietary metric called Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL), which measures the difference between a player’s percentile rank in batted ball distance and fantasy scoring over the past 15 days, and Scherzer’s mark of -87 is the worst on today’s slate. Still, the kind of contact he allows matters less when he’s racking up strikeouts, so it’s a minimal concern at best.
Kluber is taking on the Toronto Blue Jays, whose projected lineup has been much tougher to strikeout over the past 12 months. They’ve posted a strikeout rate of just 23.7%, so Kluber’s K Prediction of 9.4 trails Scherzer’s by a decent margin. Even so, his Vegas data is absolutely elite, as he leads all pitchers in both moneyline odds (-224) and opponent implied run total (2.8). Pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have historically been elite options:
Factoring in a comparable K Prediction increases the trend’s Plus/Minus to +4.30, and Kluber has personally posted an average Plus/Minus of +8.20 with comparable marks in all three categories.
Unlike Scherzer, Kluber has elite recent Statcast data. He’s posted an average distance of 182 feet, which represents a differential of -15 feet when compared to his 12-month average. He deserves to be treated as the slate’s top pitcher — but weather looks like it could be a concern in Cleveland, as there’s currently an 87% chance of precipitation.
Values
The pitching options on the main slate aren’t nearly as robust, but there are still some strong options worth considering. Jameson Taillon is the priciest option on both sites and has looked like a stud pitcher to start the season. He’s coming off arguably the best start of his career, allowing just three base runners while striking out seven over nine shutout innings. He has an excellent matchup today with the Miami Marlins, whose offense has been futile to start the season. Their average of 3.25 runs per game ranks 27th in the league, and their projected lineup has posted a .272 wOBA and 35.0% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. Their implied team total of 3.4 runs is the second-worst mark on the main slate, and Taillon is also a solid -155 favorite. He’s especially appealing on FanDuel, where his $9,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Rich Hill will likely be the most popular option on the main slate. He leads all pitchers in both opponent implied run total (3.1) and moneyline odds (-166), and his 12-month K/9 of 11.10 ranks first as well. The big concern with Hill, as always, is just how deep into the game he’ll be allowed to pitch. He’s posted an average pitch count of just 83 through his first two starts, and he threw more than 100 pitches in just two of 25 starts last season.
Garrett Richards stands out as a nice potential value on DraftKings, where his $7,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 84%. He has a solid opponent implied team total of 3.5 runs and moneyline odds of -163, and pitchers with comparable Vegas data and Bargain Ratings have historically been nice options:
Fastballs
Charlie Morton: The two stud arms on the early slate could potentially overshadow Morton, but he’s a borderline-elite option in his own right. He’s actually a larger favorite than Scherzer given his -199 moneyline odds, and his K Prediction of 8.6 is only slightly lower than Kluber’s. Morton has also posted a dominant Statcast profile through his first two starts: 154-foot average distance, 85-mph exit velocity, 16% hard hit rate. He’s a viable option for those looking to save a bit at pitcher.
Lance Lynn: He’s another strong option on the early slate given his favorable matchup with the White Sox. He owns a K Prediction of 7.4 and moneyline odds of -172, and he’s very affordable at just $7,500 on DraftKings.
Jakob Junis: He owns the top distance differential on the main slate (-28 feet) and has yet to allow an earned run over 14 innings in 2018, but he has a minuscule 4.8 K Prediction and is a +150 underdog, so he’s probably best suited for GPPs.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Minnesota Twins:
Their implied team total of 4.9 runs ranks second on the early slate, and they have a nice matchup vs. White Sox right-hander Miguel Gonzalez. He’s posted a WHIP of 1.48 and HR/9 of 1.46 over the past 12 months, and his K/9 of 5.54 is the worst mark among all of today’s starters. The Twins should put a lot of balls in play, as they’ve made outstanding contact recently. Of the stacked batters, only Brian Dozier has a distance differential of less than +18 feet over the past 15 days:
If you want to go with the all-Statcast stack, you could consider substituting Eduardo Escobar for Dozier. Escobar has posted 15-day/12-month distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit differentials of +10 feet, +2 miles per hour, and +12 percentage points, and he’s projected to occupy the sixth spot in the lineup.
On the main slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack belongs to the Oakland A’s:
The A’s are implied for just 4.2 runs against Mariners left-hander Marco Gonzales, but that is tied for the third-highest mark on the slate. One thing the stacked batters do have going for them is their current price tags: Each player owns a Bargain Rating of at least 56%:
Projected leadoff hitter Marcus Semien stands out as one of the top individual options for the A’s. He’s posted a solid .154 ISO against southpaws over the past 12 months and a distance differential of +13 feet over the past 15 days.
Other Batters
Eric Thames is a bonafide power hitter, and he’s in a nice spot today against Mets right-hander Matt Harvey. He’s posted a HR/9 of 1.91 over the past 12 months, and Thames has an ISO of .296 against right-handers over the same time frame. He’s also been in solid form to start the season, with his average distance of 248 feet ranking third among projected starters.
Buster Posey is set to face Padres left-hander Clayton Richard, which will put him on the positive side of his batting splits. He’s crushed lefties to the tune of a .452 wOBA and .220 ISO over the past 12 months and posted a distance differential of +10 feet over the past 15 days.
Jason Kipnis has posted an average Plus/Minus of -4.35 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, but his underlying Statcast data suggest he could be due for some regression. He’s posted positive differentials in distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate, and his RBBL of +74 indicates that he’s been more unlucky than bad.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Jameson Taillon
Photo Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports
