This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Justin Verlander: Pitcher, Astros
Today’s slate is light on pitching talent, which should make Verlander a popular option. He leads all pitchers in both opponent implied run total (2.8) and moneyline odds (-235), while his K Prediction of 6.8 ranks second. Historically, pitchers with comparable marks have been strong options (per our Trends tool):
However, Verlander is not without his flaws. The Blue Jays rank in the top 10 in wOBA against right-handed pitchers this season, and their projected lineup has posted a strikeout rate of just 22.1% against right-handers over the past 12 months. Verlander also has some scary Statcast numbers over his past two starts, particularly his 235-foot batted-ball distance and 60% fly-ball rate. If the Blue Jays put more balls in play than usual against Verlander, that could come back to bite him. It makes sense to pay up for Verlander in cash games, but he warrants fade consideration in guaranteed prize pools given his likely ownership.
Colby Rasmus: Outfielder, Orioles
Cheap leadoff hitters are always worth consideration in daily fantasy baseball, and one player who fits that description is Rasmus. He’s priced at just $3,200 on DraftKings and is projected to lead off:
The Orioles are implied for 4.5 runs against Mariners right-hander Felix Hernandez, who has pitched to a 5.14 ERA through his first 16 starts. Rasmus is in solid recent form, posting positive 15-day/12-month distance, exit velocity and hard hit differentials, and leadoff batters with comparable salaries, implied totals, and Statcast data have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.78 on DraftKings.
Robinson Chirinos: Catcher, Rangers
The Rangers will likely be one of today’s most popular teams since they have a slate-high implied total:
They take on Padres left-hander Joey Lucchesi, who in his last outing allowed an average distance of 301 feet, exit velocity of 98 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 60%, all of which rank dead last in our Models.
Chirinos matches up well against Lucchesi with his splits-adjusted .409 wOBA and .247 ISO over the past year as well as his positive 15-day/12-month differential in distance, exit velocity and hard-hit rate. He’s affordable at $3,300 on DraftKings and will have lower ownership than some of his teammates higher in the order, which makes him a potential differentiator in Rangers stacks.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Robinson Chirinos
Photo credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports
