Most people who play daily fantasy baseball know that in general it’s a good idea to roster leadoff batters. Some of them are speedsters. Others are high on-base hitters. And still others are just good batters whom their managers have put at the top of their orders so they get the most at-bats. Ian Hartitz has researched the productive tendencies of the MLB lineup order, but given its importance the leadoff spot probably deserves its own study.
Let’s use our Trends tool to explore the No. 1 spot in the batting order.
No. 1 in the Batting Order
Where a hitter is situated in his batting order is extremely important, as it indicates not only his relative ability but also the opportunity he’s likely to receive. For tournaments, when you are stacking (you can customize stacks with the Lineup Builder in our Player Models) it’s common to roster players who bat higher in the order:
In 2016, FanDuel batters in the top half of the order all produced a positive Plus/Minus, and the leadoff hitter had the highest salary-adjusted numbers of everyone:
The leadoff hitter had a +0.72 Plus/Minus, +0.13 higher than the next-best spot (No. 4). Additionally, the leadoff spot had the highest Consistency Rating in the order — and only the third-highest ownership. Pro subscribers can analyze main slate ownership data with our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
The Speedster
Traditionally, managers have utilized speedsters at the top of the order. In recent years, base stealers like Dee Gordon or Jonathan Villar have been employed as leadoff batters. Looking at No. 1 hitters who average 0.2 stolen bases per game, we see the following FanDuel results:
In 2016 there was an exceptional increase in the value of base-stealing leadoff hitters, but it wasn’t due to an increase in stolen bases, which have actually decreased across the league from 0.55 in 2013 to 0.52 in 2016. The productivity of speedster leadoff men will be something to monitor in 2017.
Of course, it’s possible that in 2016 base-stealing leadoff batters did better as a cohort because weaker batters who in previous years would’ve been leadoff men because of their speed were displaced at the top of the order by better batters who don’t steal bases.
The Power Hitter
In 2016 there was something of a shift across MLB at the leadoff spot. Some teams experimented with less-traditional players batting first. For instance, Carlos Santana, Jose Bautista, and Adam Jones batted at the top of the order on at least a semi-regular basis. Of the leadoff hitters with at least a 0.400 slugging percentage, we’ve seen the following FanDuel results:
As was the case with speedsters, power-hitting leadoff men performed at a high level in 2016, accruing a slot-high 11.24 fantasy points per game.
Ultimately, the 2016 improvement in production at the leadoff spot for both base stealers and power hitters might be noise. It also might be a sign that teams are getting better at front-loading their lineups with their best batters.
2017 and Onward
This season we’ll want to continue to monitor how managers use their leadoff spots and how leadoff hitters produce. Managers are starting to rely more on power hitters than speedsters at leadoff. Players like Corey Dickerson, Kyle Schwarber, Marcus Semien, and A.J. Pollock are spending more time at the No. 1 spot as managers look to add more power to the top of their lineups.
While the traditional role of a base-stealing leadoff is still relevant — Gordon, Billy Hamilton, and Jean Segura, for example — power at the top of the lineup is becoming more prevalent. Naturally, some teams have decided to use hybrid players in the leadoff spot, searching for a Rickey Henderson-esque blend of power and speed. Players like Charlie Blackmon, George Springer, and Brian Dozier now lead off for their teams, and it won’t be surprising if in the future we see more batters like them occupy the No. 1 spots in their lineups.
Takeaways
The leadoff position has changed over the last two or three seasons. This season, the World Series-winning Chicago Cubs have opted to roll with Schwarber in the leadoff spot, even though he has literally three stolen bases in his career. More and more, speed at the top of the lineup is being replaced by power.
Given the significant increase in leadoff production last year, it seems likely that managers will continue to put their best (as opposed to their fastest) hitters at the top of their lineups this year.
