The PGA TOUR is back in the Lone Star State for a quick stop before jumping right into another Signature Event and another major. Players are still trying to qualify for next week’s Truist Championship, and some big names are set to tee it up this week as they look to get their game in top shape for those two big tournaments on the horizon.
For the fifth straight season, the Byron Nelson will take place at TPC Craig Ranch, although the course was renovated for this year. For all the info about the field, the course, the weather, and some key stats, check out this First Look from RotoGrinders.
The focus of this post is strong GPP options that have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for GPP success, so the picks here go against the grain, looking for under-owned options.
All Strokes Gained metrics referenced are from the Rabbit Hole.
Usually, I rely heavily on the Strokes Gained Model in FantasyLabs, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean toward players who excel in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is more sustainable week-to-week than a hot putter.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk in exchange for getting a higher ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that often lead to large-field success. To find guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editor’s note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
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Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.
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Scottie Scheffler, $13,300
Especially in this field, Scheffler isn’t sneaking up on anyone. For this week, though, the numbers and projections indicate it’s worth eating the chalk to pay up and build around Scottie. He has the highest salary on the slate, by far, but he also has the highest projections across the board by a significant margin.
One helpful number to consider when deciding whether it is worth paying up for the favorite in the field or not is the SimLeverage that player brings. In the thousands of sims for this week, Scheffler was in the perfect lineup over 52% of the time, and since his ownership projection is only about 40%, he has the highest SimLeverage in the field.
Scheffler has not won this event in his illustrious career, but he has played it three times, finishing T47 in 2021, T15 in 2022, and T5 in 2023 before skipping the event last season.
After winning seven times on the PGA TOUR last year and adding a gold medal and the FedExCup Championship, he has yet to win in 2025. His results have been strong, with three straight top-10 finishes and five top-10 finishes in his eight events. Not only has he made the cut in each of those eight events, but he has also finished no worse than T25. He leads the field in Total Strokes Gained, Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, and Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee over the last 20 rounds
His floor is incredibly high and his chances to win the tournament make him an option to include in all formats. There are plenty of other places to differentiate your lineup, and passing on a player with such a high chance of being in the perfect build is making things much harder than they need to be.
Rasmus Hojgaard $8,900
Since we’re paying all the way up for Scheffler, let’s take a look at one way to save some salary and get some leverage. Hojgaard has the sixth-highest SimLeverage in the field and the highest of all players between $7,500 and $13,000. Hojgaard’s ownership projection is the lowest of all players over $8,500, but he matches the third-most Pro Trends in the field, behind only Scheffler and Sungjae Im.
Hojgaard is the perfect GPP target since he has a high ceiling but is also high risk at a low ownership projection. The 24-year-old showed how good he can be on the PGA TOUR earlier this season at the WM Phoenix Open, when he placed T12. That course and this week’s course were both designed by Tom Weiskopf and have lots of elements in common.
Last week, Hojgaard finished runner-up with his brother at the Zurich Classic, and both Hojgaards are in action as good SimLeverage options this week. Rasmus has made the cut in six of his nine PGA TOUR events this season with three top-25 finishes.
He has already won five DP World Tour titles and earned a reputation for big drives and steady approach shots. His best Strokes Gained category on the PGA TOUR has been his putter. His kind of skill set and the ability to go low at the scoreable TPC Craig Ranch should set him up for success this week, and he could emerge as a contender if he can ride last week’s momentum to a fast start in Dallas.
Now available: our PGA DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
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