GOLF

PGA DFS: Top Cash Game Picks for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

By Landon Silinsky @landonjake24
Mar 1, 2023

The PGA DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable golfers.

The PGA TOUR stays in Florida this week for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Bay Hill Club & Lodge will be the host course and is a 7,466-yard par 72 with Bermuda grass greens. We have another loaded field this week, as 27 of the top 30 players in the world will be in attendance.

I’ll be highlighting the best cash game/single-entry plays on the DraftKings main slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.

My analysis will frequently reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots, on average, it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.

Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

There are a variety of Strokes Gained-related metrics, but the six main categories you need to know include:

Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: Approach)
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (SG: Around-the-Green)
Strokes Gained: Putting (SG: Putting)
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green

If you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.

The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools like our Lineup Optimizer, Lineup Builder, PGA Correlation Dashboard, and our Trends tool.

The following players listed are based on DraftKings scoring and pricing.

PGA DFS Core Picks

Will Zalatoris ($9,400 DraftKings)

I believe Zalatoris is all the way back (no pun intended) from the back injury that kept him out of action for months. He was absolutely dialed in with every facet of his game at Genesis, where he finished in solo fourth place. He gained 3.94 strokes off-the-tee, 3.93 on approach, 2.4 around the green, and 2.4 putting. I don’t need to tell you that’s no easy feat. DraftKings priced up the triumvirate of Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, and Rory McIlroy, giving us some serious value plays in the low-to-mid $9K range this week.

Zalatoris will be making his third career start at Bay Hill, having finished T10 and T38 each of the past two years. The Wake Forrest alum ranks third in SG: Ball-Striking over his past 48 rounds in this field, trailing only McIlroy and Scheffler. He always gets up for these big events and is going to win a major one day I have no doubt.

Take the value here.

Using our PrizePicks promo code LABS ($100 sign-up bonus), you could bet Zalatoris to finish under 71.0 strokes in Round 1 if you’re feeling bullish about him.

Sungjae Im ($8,900 DraftKings)

Im let all of us down last week at the Honda, where he finished T42 and looked virtually lifeless all weekend. People are 100% going to overreact to his poor performance and come off him this week, which I believe is a big mistake. He lost 3.02 strokes on approach on Sunday, which skewed his overall numbers for the tournament, but he did gain over 1.6 on both Thursday and Saturday, so I’m not going to get too crazy over it. His track record in Florida speaks for itself, and he’s made four of four cuts at Bay Hill with a pair of third-place finishes.

If you’ve never rostered Im before, this is life in the NFL. He will drive you crazy and look like a KFT golfer one week and then finish runner-up at the Masters and TOUR Championship the next week. You just have to stick with it. If you look at his long-term rolling numbers in this field, you see how elite he is, ranking eighth in SG: Total, 10th in SG: Tee-to-Green, and 13th in SG: Ball-Striking.

At $8,900, he’s one of my favorite plays on the board

Tyrrell Hatton ($8,300 DraftKings)

There are two spots on the PGA TOUR circuit where Hatton is a plug-and-play. One of them is at Chapultepec in Mexico, which is no longer in rotation, while the other is right here at Bay Hill. Hatton first played here in 2017, where he finished T4. Since then, he has had a win, a runner-up, and a T21. I have had this event circled on my calendar because I knew I would be writing up Hatton regardless of form, which has been quite strong, actually. Among golfers in this field with more than one career start at the API, Hatton ranks fifth in SG: Total per round.

This should not come as a surprise, considering Hatton is a grinder who’s great with his long irons, plays well at tough courses, and putts well on Bermuda. Being that the field is so loaded this week, he does not see the former champion’s price bump that he would have normally seen, so we get to play him at just $8,300.

If your favorite tout is telling you not to roster Hatton this week, it might be time to find a new tout.

Hideki Matsuyama ($8,200 DraftKings)

Due to the quality of the field, we are getting some absurd price tags on elite level golfers this week. Matsuyama is less than two years removed from winning the freakin’ Masters, and you’re telling me we can roster him at $8,200? He did not play great at Genesis, but that was due to a poor Friday because on Thursday, he gained 2.47 strokes on approach and 3.36 tee-to-green. The MC at Riviera was Matsuyama’s in 2023, and he had previously been on a really nice run, having finished T29 in Phoenix and T9 at Torrey Pines.

He is also no stranger to Bay Hill, playing here each of the past eight years with zero missed cuts and four top-21 finishes. Matsuyama’s long-term rolling numbers look just fine as well, ranking 22nd from tee-to-green, 23rd on approach, and 21st in Total Strokes Gained.

Just because something seems obvious does not make it wrong. I really have a hard time imagining that Matsuyama will simultaneously miss his second consecutive cut and his first career cut at Bay Hill this week, and considering his bargain bin price tag, we’re not looking for a whole lot more than that.

Jon Rahm ($11,500 DraftKings)

I am putting Rahm at the bottom of core plays because I personally do not believe it’s the optimal roster construction in a field this deep to start with a golfer priced at $11,500. Obviously, having said that, Rahm is on a run right now that we have not seen since peak Tiger Woods. The man has three wins across his past five starts, and in the two starts in that stretch where he did not win, he finished T7 and solo third.

This is not normal stuff we are witnessing right now, and despite everything I just said about roster construction, I certainly could not begrudge anyone for starting their cash or GPP rosters with the hottest golfer on earth right now. If Rahm does, in fact, win again, you are probably going to want to have him, and there are certainly enough plays in both the $8K and $7K range to make him fit. Just know rosters obviously will look much cleaner if you start in the mid-9Ks. We should always be mindful of this type of stuff in DFS, as nothing is done in a vacuum, and every roster decision we make affects the other spots on that roster.

I will wrap this soliloquy by saying if you do intend to pay up this week, Rahm is the preferred option over both Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, even at his elevated price tag.

PGA DFS Value Picks

Chris Kirk ($7,700 DraftKings)

To be honest with you, I am slightly worried about how Kirk is going to play this week after his exhausting playoff victory last week at the Honda, which was his first win in eight years. However, nothing in the data suggests that he should not be rostered at this price. Kirk has arguably the best course history in this field, having played Bay Hill nine of the past 10 years with four top-16 finishes and a T5 and T8 each of the past two years, respectively.

He now has three top-three finishes across his past four starts and ranks 10th in SG: Approach and sixth in SG: Total in this field over that stretch. I would imagine Kirk is going to be among the highest owned players in the field, especially among high stakes players.

Tommy Fleetwood ($7,500 DraftKings)

Fleetwood is another guy who’s had quite a bit of success at Bay Hill over the years, having posted three top-10s and an additional T20 in his six starts. It’s never going to look normal seeing his name priced in the mid-$7K range, but basically, a two-year stretch of poor play has led us here. Having said that, Fleetwood has turned it on a bit of late, ranking 10th in this field in SG: Total, 19th on approach, and 14th putting over his past eight rounds.

He still boasts an incredible short game, which is going to be quite valuable this week due to the difficult nature of the course. After Fleetwood’s encouraging T20 at the Genesis, I like going right back to him at a course he clearly knows his way around. I also feel way more confident in his prospects this week than some of those priced around him, such as the Si Woo Kims, Adam Hadwins, and Gary Woodlands of the world.

Tom Hoge ($7,300 DraftKings)

Quietly, Hoge ranks second in this field on approach over his past 48 rounds, sitting behind only Xander Schauffele. Outside of a missed cut at the WMPO, he’s had a nice start to 2023, which includes a T3 at the Sentry TOC and T14 his last time out at Genesis. His history at Bay Hill is also pretty strong, where he’s made the weekend in three of four career starts with a pair of top-26 finishes.

Hoge gained strokes off-the-tee, on approach, and on the greens at Riviera and is historically a slightly better putter on Bermuda greens for his career. He’s probably a few hundred too cheap for his upside, making him one of the better values in all of the $7K range.

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