NFL Week 8 gets underway with a Thursday Night Football contest between the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers at 8:20 p.m. ET.
If you’re unfamiliar with the single-game NFL DFS format, it differs a bit on DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings, you have one “captain” spot and five flexes. The captain will score 1.5x fantasy points, but he also costs 1.5x salary. That means if you want to roster Matt Ryan at captain and take advantage of the scoring boost, you’ll have to pay $16,500 as opposed to $11,000.
FanDuel’s single-game format features one “MVP” spot and four flexes. The MVP also scores 1.5x fantasy points, but he doesn’t cost any additional salary. That takes away a bit of the strategy and makes the goal simple: get your highest-scoring player in the MVP spot.
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Studs
This may not be the best game from an actual football standpoint, but it should be very good for fantasy. The total currently sits at 51.5 points and both of these teams have struggled on defense. The Panthers rank 23rd in Football Outsiders defensive DVOA this season while the Falcons rank merely 27th.
Ryan is the most expensive player on DraftKings, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past two games. That has coincided with getting Julio Jones back in the lineup, which is not all that surprising. The combination of Jones and Calvin Ridley gives Ryan arguably the best 1-2 punch at WR in the entire league.
That said, there are some question marks with Ryan on tonight’s slate. For starters, the Panthers’ defense has been much more exploitable on the ground than through the air. They currently rank 17th in pass defense DVOA but just 28th in rush defense DVOA.
Ryan is also a road underdog in this contest, which is not a situation that quarterbacks have historically thrived in. However, Ryan might be one of the exceptions. He’s played in 39 games as a road underdog since 2014 and has averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.00 on DraftKings in those contests (per the Trends tool).
Speaking of Jones and Ridley, those players are separated by just $400 on DraftKings and $1,000 on FanDuel. Both players also own an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.8 on FanDuel.
Ridley is the more expensive player across the industry, but he has the superior matchup in this contest. He plays the majority of his snaps on the right side of the formation, which sets up a matchup with Troy Pride Jr. Pride has been one of the worst cornerbacks in the league this season, which gives Ridley as massive edge according to Pro Football Focus.
You can definitely play these guys together, especially if you want to pair them with Ryan to stack the Atlanta passing attack. They have a positive correlation with each other, which is not always the case for two players who play the same position.
Teddy Bridgewater is the most expensive option for the Panthers on DraftKings, and he has one of the best matchups on the slate. The Falcons have hemorrhaged fantasy points through the air this season, giving Bridgewater an Opponent Plus/Minus of +9.40. He was able to find success in this matchup in the first meeting between these two teams this season, logging 23.82 DraftKings points thanks to 313 passing yards and two touchdowns.
He leads all players in our NFL Models in both median and ceiling projection, and he also ranks first in projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel. Bridgewater also represents one of the best pure values on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 90%.
Mike Davis stands out as a value on DraftKings. He’s just the sixth-most expensive option on that site but is the most expensive player on the slate on FanDuel. Unsurprisingly, that results in a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Davis has carried a Christian McCaffrey-like workload with the star RB sidelined, resulting in at least 22.1 DraftKings points in three of his past five starts. Unfortunately, he has posted a negative Plus/Minus in each of his past two games, but those have come in tough matchups vs. the Bears and Saints. The Falcons are a much more exploitable defense, particularly in terms of defending RBs in passing game. They rank just 16th in DVOA vs. the position.
It should be noted that McCaffrey hasn’t been officially ruled out yet for this contest, but he is widely expected to sit. McCaffrey being active would change the entire slate, so make sure to monitor the news to confirm his status.
Midrange
The Panthers have a pretty good passing catching duo of their own in Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore. Fantasy players entered the season with higher expectations for Moore, but Anderson has emerged as the clear top option in the Panthers’ passing attack. He’s seen more targets than Moore in four of the past five games, and he’s averaged more than 10 additional receiving yards per game this season (91.4 vs. 81.0). The only thing that has kept Anderson from becoming a fantasy stud at the WR position has been a pedestrian one touchdown to start the year.
That said, Moore has actually seen a higher percentage of the Panthers’ air yards this season, and he ranks fifth in the NFL in air yards market share. Anderson also fares well in that category – he ranks seventh – but Moore is clearly still capable of doing damage.
This week looks like a potential smash spot for Moore. He lines up primarily on the left side of the offensive formation, which sets up a matchup vs. Kendall Sheffield. Sheffield owns a dreadful PFF grade of just 36.0 this season, so Moore should be able to exploit that matchup.
Stacking the Panthers should be a popular strategy tonight, and it appears to make a lot of sense. Moore and Anderson are pretty neutral in terms of correlation, but both players unsurprisingly have an excellent correlation with Bridgewater. The two receivers have also combined for just under 80% of the Panthers’ air yards this season, so this is a very concentrated offense. That is a major plus from a fantasy perspective.
Is Todd Gurley washed at this point? He doesn’t possess nearly the same explosiveness that he did during the earlier part of his career, and he’s sustained some major knee injuries dating back to his time at Georgia.
Still, his fantasy production this season has been undeniable. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in four of his past five games and still appears to have a nose for the endzone. He’s scored seven touchdowns on the ground this season, which is tied for the top mark in the league. The guy even scores when he’s trying not to:
Todd Gurley tried to stop from scoring to run the clock out, but couldn’t hold up.
The Lions scored the game-winning TD with 0 seconds on the clock.
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/fHzvijXR4m
— ESPN (@espn) October 25, 2020
He’s also commanded a monster workload recently, logging at least 20 carries in each of the past two games. He should find success vs. the Panthers’ dreadful run defense if he sees a comparable workload today.
After Gurley and the Panthers’ WR duo, the options in this game get a little questionable. There doesn’t appear to be a slam-dunk value on either side.
The closest is probably Russell Gage, who has had some nice moments for the Falcons this season. He finished with seven targets and six catches last week despite exiting the game briefly with a knee injury. He ultimately played on just 32% of the Falcons’ snaps in that contest, so he could have had a much bigger game if not for the injury.
Gage was limited on Monday and Tuesday’s practice this week, but he doesn’t currently have an injury designation. He should be able to suit up, which gives him an excellent ceiling for his price tag.
Curtis Samuel is also available in this price range, and he’s coming off his best game of the season last week vs. the Saints. He finished with six catches for 48 yards in the passing game and added five yards and a touchdown on the ground. His ability to play out of the backfield puts him in direct competition with Davis, so those players unsurprisingly are very negatively correlated. That makes Samuel a very interesting leverage play for lineups that don’t include Davis, and you can build that into our improved lineup optimizer:
Finally, Hayden Hurst is also available in this price range, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in back-to-back games. He’s done it in different ways as well, scoring a touchdown in one and finishing with six catches for 68 yards in the other. Still, he seems a bit pricey given his current role in the Atlanta passing attack and his Opponent Plus/Minus of -3.8 on DraftKings.
Values and Punts
- Kickers and Defenses – These options are always in play in the single-game format. They don’t usually stand out in projected high-scoring affairs, but they could make more sense than usual given the lack of viable value options.
- Ian Thomas: $2,600 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel – Thomas has been a non-factor for the Panthers for most of the season, logged 16 receiving yards or fewer in each of his first seven games. That said, the Falcons rank 30th in DVOA vs. the TE position, and Thomas’ Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.9 on DraftKings ranks second on the slate.
- Brian Hill: $2,200 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel – Gurley is dominating the carries for the Falcons at the moment, but Hill has carved out a role as the receiving back. He’s caught at least two passes in six of seven games this season, which gives him some viability at his current price tag.
- Olamide Zaccheaus: $1,000 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel – Zaccheaus burst onto the scene when the Falcons were dealing with injuries to Jones, Ridley, and Gage, but it appears his days of fantasy relevance are over. He played on just 15% of the Falcons’ offensive snaps last week despite Gage missing time with an injury and hasn’t caught a pass in each of the past two games.
- Ito Smith: $800 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel – Smith doesn’t appear to have much of a role at this point – he played on just three of 75 snaps last week – but you never know what can happen in these showdown contests. He probably needs an injury to return value, but the odds of that happening are probably greater than the percentage at which he’s owned tonight.
