EDITOR’S NOTE (Sunday, 12:30 p.m. ET): Please see updates in Roster Build (Cash), New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (GPP), and San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys (GPP) sections.
This article is a data-driven deep dive on strategic decision-making and roster construction for DFS cash games and tournaments. It relies heavily upon FantasyLabs’ extensive suite of analytical DFS tools, as well as advanced metrics and film study. First, I walk through narrowing down the player pool at each position. Then, I lay out how to choose the highest-floor lineup combinations for cash games. Finally, I go game-by-game to present the biggest edges (stacks, pivots, leverage opportunities, etc.) in each.
Week 15 shmoney time!
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- Jalen Hurts, PHI ($5,900 DK, $6,900 FD) at ARI
The 2020 DFS QB flow chart:
- Does he run?
- Is he cheap?
- Is he not named Daniel Jones or Carson Wentz?
Jalen Hurts checks all three boxes. In his first start, the rookie completed 17 of 30 passes for 167 yards and added 106 yards on 18 carries, 11 of which were designed runs (excluding kneel-downs). He helped the Eagles to 413 yards of total offense on the Saints, who rank second on defense in Football Outsiders’ DVOA. Hurts has a top-seven median projection and a salary that doesn’t measure up.
Look at it this way:
Sportsbooks opened Hurts’ passing yardage prop at 209.5 and his rushing yardage prop at 58.5.
That equates to 14.23 fantasy points, which would take 355.8 passing yards to reach on passing yardage alone.
Times are hard for non-mobile fantasy QBs.
— Chris Raybon (@ChrisRaybon) December 18, 2020
Our NFL Player Models have Hurts ranked No. 1 among QBs in projected points per dollar this week.