Correlations are really important in DFS — so much so, in fact, that we created an NFL Stacking tool that can help you identify the best stacks of the week. Let’s mess around with the Stacking tool and see what DraftKings and FanDuel stacks we can find for Week 7 (via our Bales Player Model).
Note: The following stacks were generated for the 1:00pm Sunday main slate.
QB-WR (DK): Blake Bortles-Allen Robinson
The third-year Jags QB has certainly been up and down to start the 2016 season:
This week, he faces a Raiders defense that was supposedly improved in 2016, yet through Week 6 it is 29th in total defense per Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjust Value Over Average (DVOA). The obvious stack with Bortles is with Robinson: It is currently the highest-rated QB-WR stack in the DK Bales Model. However, this is a bit of a risky one, specifically because of Robinson’s target volatility.
He is one of the best receivers in the league, yet in the last four games he has seen only 21.19 percent of the Jags’ targets. That is well below what the other top NFL receivers get on a weekly basis and it’s even lower than his teammate Allen Hurns, who has a 21.85 percent target share in the last four games and saw 33.33 percent just last week. All that said, A-Rob still gets the juiciest targets — he owns the most Air Yards at 31.69 percent in the last four — and we know his talent. This could be a breakout week for the young duo.
QB-TE (FD): Alex Smith-Travis Kelce
I know: If you rostered Smith last week, his name in this article is the last thing you want to see. In Week 6, he played against the Raiders — just discussed above — and put up only 8.9 fantasy points. However, it is important to note that it wasn’t due to poor play. He was actually very efficient, finishing 19 of 22 for 224 passing yards and no interceptions. The issue was that the Raiders are incredibly poor against both the run and the pass this year, and the Chiefs decided to attack them on the ground.
Spencer Ware and Jamaal Charles combined for 33 rush attempts, 164 yards, and two touchdowns. The Chiefs could choose to run the ball again this week despite a solid matchup against a Saints defense that ranks 28th overall, per DVOA. However, if they do pass the ball more, a Smith-Kelce combo could do well. The Saints rank 25th against TEs this year and Kelce has a +3.5 Projected Plus/Minus and 93 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel.
RB-D/ST (DK): DeMarco Murray-Titans D/ST
Murray should be the absolute chalk this week: He faces a Colts defense that ranks dead last against the run this year and just allowed 149 rushing yards and a touchdown to Lamar Miller on Sunday night. Murray missed his salary-based expectation last week for the first time this year, but it wasn’t due to lack of volume: He received a hefty 21 attempts and hasn’t had fewer than 20 rushes in the last three games. He has owned 66.92 percent of the Titans’ rushes in the last four games and is clearly their preferred goal-line option:
Again, he will be chalky — he has a FantasyLabs projected ownership of 26 to 30 percent on DK this week — but you can reduce lineup overlap by pairing him with the Titans D/ST, the highest-rated DK defense currently in the Bales Model. They are quite cheap at $2,500 and face a Colts team with an implied Vegas total of only 22.5 points.
QB-RB-WR (FD): Jameis Winston-Doug Martin-Mike Evans
The 49ers have gotten absolutely roasted against WR1s this season: They’re basically auto-starts at this point, especially if they’re like Evans. The 49ers are dead last in the league against WR1s, per DVOA, and have allowed an average of 84.9 yards receiving to them. Evans has now seen weekly target totals of 12, 11, 14, and 18 in the last four games. He leads the Bucs in target share (31.52 percent) and market share of Air Yards (35.69 percent) in that time frame. He will be chalky, as shown by his 21 to 25 percent projected ownership on FD.
Martin’s status is still up in the air for Week 7, but he is currently the highest-rated FD RB in the Bales Model. Winston had a combined 110 pass attempts in Weeks 2 and 3, and with Charles Sims out Martin has a chance to see more targets than he usually does. Playing against the fast-paced 49ers, this threesome is very intriguing for Sunday if Martin is able to go. If Martin can’t play then Jacquizz Rodgers would be a viable injury fill-in.
QB-RB-WR-WR (DK): Matthew Stafford-Zach Zenner-Golden Tate-Anquan Boldin
Stafford was superb last week against a solid Rams defense, going 23 of 31 for 270 passing yards and four touchdowns. This week he faces a Washington defense that ranks 20th overall, per DVOA, but has interesting splits: In 2016, the defense is 11th against the pass and 31st against the run. However, they do rank dead last against WR2s this year. New CB addition Josh Norman has been solid this year for them, but the surrounding pieces have really struggled. Our NFL Matchups tool currently has Tate going against Norman, but Washington could elect to throw him at Marvin Jones as well. If that happens, both Tate and Boldin are intriguing options. The latter is projected to be owned in zero to one percent of lineups.
Zenner would definitely be contrarian, but it is important to note that Washington is poor against the run and Zenner was the guy last week. He received 53.85 percent of the Lions’ carries and out-snapped new Detroit RB Justin Forsett 48 to 12. This is a risky backfield, but at such low ownership these guys are worth rostering in some GPP lineups.
Good luck!
