NFL Super Wild Card Weekend kicks off on Saturday, and there’s a two-game main slate starting at 4:30 p.m. ET.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.
Josh Allen leads the quarterback position on Saturday, and he enters the postseason in good recent form. He’s scored at least 21.8 DraftKings points in five straight games, and he has two games with at least 33.96 DraftKings points over that time frame. One of those games came against the Patriots, who he will be facing on Saturday. Allen carved them up for 314 yards and three touchdowns through the air, and he added 64 yards on the ground.
That combination of rushing and passing upside is what makes Allen so appealing from a fantasy perspective. When he hits his ceiling, there’s arguably no quarterback in football with more fantasy upside.
He leads all of Saturday’s quarterbacks in median, ceiling, and floor projection, and he also leads the position in projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
If you’re spending down at the position, Derek Carr seems like your best bet. He has arguably the best matchup at the position, leading all quarterbacks in Opponent Plus/Minus. The Bengals rank merely 24th in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA, so Carr can find some success against this unit.
Carr is also the rare quarterback who typically performs better as an underdog than a favorite. He’s historically averaged 17.48 DraftKings points when getting points but just 16.05 as a favorite (per the Trends tool).
This game also stands out as the clear preferred target of the two on Saturday. The Raiders and Bengals own a total of 49.0, while Pats-Bills sits at just 44.0.
Joe Burrow has posted some insane numbers in his final two regular season contests. He threw for at least 446 yards and four touchdowns in both games, and he scored at least 37.84 DraftKings points in each contest. He also sat out last week’s contest and has been a full participant at practice, so he should be at full strength. The Raiders rank 21st in pass defense DVOA, so Burrow has the potential for another monster performance. He grades out similarly to Allen in our NFL Models, and he’s arguably the superior option on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 99%.
Mac Jones rounds out the signal-callers, and he’s the toughest to make a case for. His production has been up-and-down this season, and he’s been dreadful in two matchups vs. the Bills. The Patriots barely let him throw the ball in their first meeting – he attempted just three passes in gale-force winds – and he finished with just 7.1 DraftKings points in the second.
Still, he should be the lowest-owned quarterback on the slate, and ownership is very important on a two-game slate.
Joe Mixon is expected to be the heavy chalk at running back this week. He’s had some big games recently, logging at least 25.1 DraftKings points in five of his past nine games. That includes 27.3 DraftKings points vs. the Raiders, who he gashed for 123 yards and two touchdowns.
That said, the Raiders have been a mediocre matchup for running backs this season. They rank 10th in rush defense DVOA and 20th in pass defense DVOA vs. the position. Overall, Mixon owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.4 on DraftKings.
Mixon stands out as a stronger target on DraftKings than FanDuel, where his $7,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%. He leads the position with nine Pro Trends, and he owns the top median, ceiling, and floor projections at the position in our NFL Models.
The Bills used a committee situation at running back to start the year, but Devin Singletary has emerged as their feature back recently. He’s posted a Plus/Minus of at least +7.1 in five straight games, and he’s scored at least 25.2 DraftKings points in back-to-back contests. Singletary is also underpriced on DraftKings, where his $5,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Singletary will have his work cut out for him vs. the Patriots, but they’ve been a bit more vulnerable against the run than the pass this season.
Rhamondre Stevenson stands out as the best running value on FanDuel. He’s priced at $5,200, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 96%, and he should be involved in the Patriots’ run-heavy attack. Damien Harris will serve as the Patriots’ lead running back, but there should be enough touches for both players.
Josh Jacobs is the Raiders’ featured running back, and he’s coming off 26 carries, 132 yards, and a touchdown in his last outing. Jacobs has had at least 26 carries in two of his past three games, and he’s also been more involved in the passing game than he has been in previous years. However, the Bengals have been stronger against the run than the pass this season, and Jacobs is game script dependent.
That makes him a bit riskier than some of the other backs on Saturday.
The receiver position is spearheaded by Ja’Marr Chase, who is the most expensive player at the position across the industry. He’s coming off a historic rookie season, setting the Bengals’ franchise record for most receiving yards. Chase was absolutely dominant in his last game with Burrow, racking up 11 catches for 266 yards and three touchdowns. His 50.1 DraftKings points in that contest were the highest score this season by any receiver.
Chase’s matchup this week is a bit of a mixed bag. He plays almost exclusively on the outside of the formation, meaning he should see plenty of Casey Hayward Jr. and Brandon Facyson in this matchup. Hayward is one of the best corners in football – he’s allowed just 0.11 fantasy points per route run – but Facyson is one of the worst. Facyson ranks just 108th out of 120 qualified corners in terms of Pro Football Focus grade.
Chase should be a popular target this week, especially on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 94%.
If you’re looking to go cheaper with the Bengals, Tyler Boyd is a solid option. He’s priced at just $4,600 on DraftKings, and while he’s served as the Bengals’ No. 3 receiver this season, he’s provided plenty of value in that role. He’s logged at least five targets in five straight games, and he’s scored at least 10.3 DraftKings points in each of them. Boyd has been even better recently, scoring at least 13.6 DraftKings points in each of his past three.
Boyd doesn’t need to do much to pay off his current salary, and he ranks third in our NFL Models in projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Don’t forget about Tee Higgins for the Bengals. He’s priced right in the middle of Chase and Boyd, and he’s actually projected for the most ownership of the trio. Overall, expect the Bengals’ passing attack to be very chalky.
On the other side of that matchup, Hunter Renfrow and Zay Jones both stand out as viable options. Renfrow saw a clear reduction in targets last week with Darren Waller back in the lineup, but he remains the Raiders’ primary receiver near the goal line. He scored two touchdowns last week, and he could definitely find the endzone again on Sunday. Jones is more of the downfield threat, and he’s been highly involved of late. He’s racked up at least eight targets in four straight games, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of them.
Stefon Diggs operated as the Bills’ true alpha receiver last year, but his role has been a bit slimmer this season. That said, he has become more involved as the season has progressed, racking up at least 13 targets in three of his past five games. That said, he will face a brutal matchup vs. the Patriots, who rank second in DVOA vs. No. 2 wide receivers.
The Patriots’ passing attack is the toughest to figure out. No Patriots’ receiver ranks in the top eight in terms of projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings, so ignoring them entirely is reasonable. If you do want to go in that direction, Jakobi Meyers has operated as the team’s No. 1 option. He’s seen at least eight targets in five straight games, and he’s recorded double-digit fantasy points in each. The Patriots could be forced to throw more than usual in this contest, giving Meyers some appeal.
Tight end lacks a true superstar on this slate, but it’s got some quality depth. Darren Waller headlines this group. He disappointed in his return to action last week, finishing with just two catches for 22 yards, but he did rack up nine targets. He remains the focal point of the Raiders’ offense when healthy, logging at least seven targets in all but two games this season.
Waller should be able to find success in this matchup. The Bengals rank just 24th in DVOA vs. the position, and Waller leads the position with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.3.
Waller is also very reasonably priced across the industry. He leads the position with an 83% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, but his $5,700 salary on DraftKings is also solid. He was priced over $7,000 to start the year, so this is a pretty sizable decrease.
C.J. Uzomah should be the default option if you’re spending down at tight end on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $3,500, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 84%, and he’s quietly been involved in the Bengals’ passing attack of late. He’s racked up at least six targets in four of his past five games, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of them.
Uzomah ultimately leads the position in projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
The Bills barely threw to their tight ends last season, but that has not been the case this year. Dawson Knox has become a featured part of their offense, and he’s racked up nine touchdowns in 15 games. That said, he hasn’t been particularly involved of late. He’s racked up five targets or fewer in each of his past four games, despite the fact that he’s played on the vast majority of snaps.
Hunter Henry is another viable option at the position. He’s seen at least five targets in five straight games, and he has two games with multiple scores this season. That gives him a legit ceiling at the position.