By the time Sunday Night Football kicks off, we’ll have a day full of football action to reflect on. Still, there will be an appetite for everything this NFC East clash has to offer. For the first time since 2015, the Dallas Cowboys take to the field without Ezekiel Elliott, competing against a retooled New York Giants squad. Whichever team comes out on top gives themselves an early leg up in what’s sure to be another blood bath of a division.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems on Betr or Sleeper Fantasy for this week’s matchup.
Don’t forget to leverage our Player Props Tool from Sean Koerner and our analytics team to identify where the biggest edges are.
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Cowboys-Giants NFL Player Prop Picks
Saquon Barkley Under 3.5 Receptions
Once again, Saquon Barkley figures to be the focal point of the New York Giants offense. After a rough few seasons, Barkley reestablished himself as the playmaker who won Offensive Rookie of the Year back in 2018. However, his importance in the passing game has dwindled over the years, and we expect him to take a back seat in Week 1.
Barkley enters the NFC East clash with his reception total set at 3.5, a number he surpassed on just on just seven occasions last year. Moreover, Barkley was targeted more than five times in just five games last year, highlighting his tertiary importance in the passing attack.
On top of that, Dallas operated one of the best passing defenses in the NFL last year. Looking to pick up where they left off, the Cowboys ranked in the top half of the league in most defensive passing categories, highlighted by their eighth-ranked opponent completion percentage (61.9%) and 14th-ranked completions per game (21.0).
As inferred by the modest total, Sunday night’s battle between the Giants and Cowboys figures to be a defensive slog. Barkley’s value in tonight’s contest comes with him rushing the ball, helping the hosts dictate pace and control the clock. Although he has a decent ceiling, most of those contributions will come via the running game. Look for him to fall short of his 3.5 receptions prop.
Darren Waller Under 50.5 Receiving Yards
(Editor’s note: this line has moved to 45.5 on Sleeper)
For many of the same reasons we expect Barkley to struggle in the passing game, Darren Waller’s tenure as a New York Giant could get off to a rocky start. The Cowboys defense is one of the best at limiting opponents’ passing attacks, and that’s what we’re anticipating again on Sunday Night Football.
The Cowboys defense notwithstanding, Waller has had diminishing metrics for the past few seasons. His yards per game has dipped in three consecutive years, bottoming out with a paltry 43.1 last season with the Las Vegas Raiders. Further, his production metrics are even more concerning, as Waller averaged just 4.8 targets per game last year, his worst mark since 2018.
Granted, injuries played a role in his demise, but it’s unlikely we see a meaningful departure from that trajectory now that he’s with the Giants. New York is a run-first offense, churning out the eighth-most rush attempts per game (30.0) and 11th-highest rushing-play percentage (47.2%) in 2022.
Dallas didn’t give up many receiving yards last year, allowing the eighth-fewest opponent passing yards per game (207.8). Although Waller will be a target for Daniel Jones, it’s unlikely he accumulates enough yardage to surpass this benchmark.
Saquon Barkley Over 15.5 Rush Attempts
Lastly, we’re taking a correlated stance with our final player prop, highlighting the over 15.5 on Barkley’s rush attempts. As noted, the Giants play a possession-driven game, and that’s even more pronounced in divisional matchups. To maintain possession, New York will ask Barkley to hang onto the football, helping him exceed his Week 1 player prop.
Barkley is one of the few feature backs remaining in the NFL. The former second-overall selection set a career high with 295 carries in 2022, the third season in which he’s eclipsed the 200-attempt threshold. With a modest passing attack and a fierce Cowboys defense, we expect Saquon to be used early and often against Dallas.
Last season, Barkley exceeded 15.5 carries in nine of 16 games, but his usage increased dramatically at home. Playing at MetLife Stadium, Barkley averaged 19.7 rush attempts per game. That number dipped to 16.9 on the road, which still would be enough to get him over his Week 1 total.
Don’t expect the Giants to play to the Cowboys’ strength and let their pass defense shine. Instead, the hosts will deploy a heavy dose of Barkley in the rushing attack, helping him go over the 15.5 attempts needed to exceed his total.
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