It still might be too early to start talking about playoff implications, but neither the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or the Buffalo Bills can afford to lose much ground in their respective races. The Bucs were recently usurped in the NFC South standings, needing to keep pace with the parvenue Atlanta Falcons. Likewise, Buffalo has yet to reach the Miami Dolphins this season, trending in the opposite direction following Week 7’s loss to the New England Patriots. It’s a short week, but both teams should be ready to compete in this Thursday night affair.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
Don’t forget to leverage our simulations tool from our projections team to identify where the biggest edges are — and you can see more projection picks here.
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Buccaneers-Bills NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Gabe Davis Higher 40.5 Receiving Yards
Consistency has limited Gabe Davis’ ceiling this year. Through the first seven games of the season, Davis has alternated between WR1-type production and waiver wire-worthy performances. Nevertheless, the Bills wideout should see the target share required to send him his receiving yards against the Bucs.
Davis has been targeted four or more times in all but one of his outings. On four occasions, he’s posted a catch rate of 75.0% or higher. In the other three games, he’s catching just 30.8% of passes while failing to surpass 50.0% in any of those contests. But coming off an abysmal one-catch, six-yard performance, Davis is poised for a bounce-back at home.
Coincidentally, Davis does his best work at Highmark Stadium. In four home games, the former UCF Knight has a Pro Bowl-esque 81.2% catch rate, accounting for 274 yards and three scores. Conversely, Davis has caught a disappointing 30.8% of his targets on the road, with just 73 yards to show for his efforts.
Predictably, all of Davis’ splits rise at home. He averages 12.5 yards per target, 68.5 yards per game, and 4.5 receptions per game. Those are the types of metrics that should help David easily surpass the modest 40.5 receiving yards needed.
Rachaad White Lower 46.5 Rushing Yards
Week after week, the Buccaneers continue to feed Rachaad White the ball, and time after time, he continues to disappoint. White is averaging a paltry 3.2 yards per carry this season, below his already dismal rookie benchmark of 3.7 from 2022. Even with a steady workload, White has been unable to exceed his rushing yards props most weeks, and that could be compounded by playing from behind against the Bills.
White has been held in check by just about every opponent. The Buccaneers running back has eclipsed 39 rushing yards in just two of his six games this year despite averaging 13.8 carries per game. Those concerns have been amplified over his recent sample, with White totaling 60 yards over his last two games while averaging 38.5 yards per game over his previous four.
The Bills rushing defense isn’t what it was last year, but they are showing signs of improvement. Buffalo held the Patriots to 96 yards in Sunday’s loss, limiting opponents to 109.7 as the hosts. Both of these are substantially better than the 128.3 rushing yards per game the Bills typically allow.
At -8.5 and climbing, the betting line implies that Buffalo should be playing with the lead for most of the game. Combined with White’s lackluster metrics, we’re not expecting the Bucs to get any traction with their running game. As such, we’re taking a stance on White going lower than 46.5 rushing yards.
James Cook Higher 50.5 Rushing Yards
A couple of early-season duds have taken the shine off an otherwise successful start to the campaign for James Cook. The Bills running back has been a primary weapon for Buffalo and should be called upon more frequently on Thursday, helping his team control the tempo at home.
He may not have started the last two games, but the Bills are deploying Cook as their lead back. The former second-round pick has at least 12 carries in all but one of his outings this year while playing more than 59.0% of snaps in four of seven. More importantly, Cook’s maximizing his contributions when he’s on the field, averaging 4.8 yards per carry and 59.9 yards per game.
The Falcons created the blueprint for running over the Buccaneers. Atlanta rushed for 156 yards on Sunday, calling running plays on 60.3% of its offensive snaps. We’re expecting the Bills to replicate that strategy, turning to Cook to lead the way.
Cook has run for more than 51 yards in two straight and four of his last six. With an increased emphasis on the ground game and sustained early-season production, we’re betting that trend continues into Week 9.
