The first NFL game in London this year is part of the Week 4 schedule, leaving 12 games on the main NFL DFS slate for this Sunday after the early kickoff from across the pond. This week, eight games kick off at 1:00 p.m. ET, with four games in the late window, including the Chiefs-Raiders AFC West grudge match that is the only meeting of 3-0 teams on the scoreboard. Let’s take a look at this 24-team slate and see which players the early projections are pointing to as values to target this week.
From a game-script perspective, the Buffalo Bills have the highest implied team total on the board at 27.75 points, just edging out the Ravens at 27.25. The Bengals-Jaguars matchup has the highest over/under, which makes players from both those teams interesting to consider in what could be a high-scoring spot on the slate. While kickoff is still a few days away, it’s never too early to start strategizing for your NFL DFS lineups for Week 4. Even in the middle of the week, some potential values are already popping in our early projections, and you definitely want to have them on your radar.
Throughout the season, every Wednesday, I’ll be taking a look at the players who are standing out as top values for the coming week by using the early projections in our NFL Player Models. Of course, these models update frequently.
Things will likely change between now and Sunday, but it’s still good to have a plan of attack.
If there’s news between now and lock — and there will be — the models will update to reflect that.
As always, they’re powered by Sean Koerner — one of the most accurate fantasy rankers in the industry.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Values
C.J. Stroud ($5,700) Houston Texans (-2.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys (47.5 total)
In THE BLITZ projections, C.J. Stroud has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at quarterback, and he also holds the top spot in a 50/50 blend of Carty’s and Koerner’s projections. With multiple injuries at the position already this season, some new fantasy options are emerging, but Stroud is carrying a heavy load in the Texans offense and gets a good matchup against the Cowboys this week.
Stroud’s Texans are 0-3 coming into this game against Dallas and desperately need to get a victory. They could get a huge boost if Nico Collins is ready to return as expected, and hopefully that will help Stroud get his team back in the win column.
Stroud threw for 167 yards and a touchdown last week after piling up 353 passing yards on 55 pass attempts in Week 2 against the Bengals. In his two home games, Stroud has averaged 46.5 pass attempts per game, and the coaching staff is trusting him to air it out and make plays.
He has exceeded salary-based expectations in two of his three games this season (both at home), and he will get a good matchup against Dallas, which has allowed the fourth-most DraftKings points to the position through the first three weeks of the season. The Cowboys will also be recovering from their trip to Rio last week, where the Ravens defeated them, 34-31. Lamar Jackson had 20.4 FPTS against them in that matchup, and Stroud will look to put up similar numbers this week, which would make him an excellent value at this salary.
Watch the injury reports to see if Collins is on track to return, but as long as he does, Stroud makes a good value QB play to build around in Week 4.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Values
Kalif Raymond ($3,600) Chicago Bears (-3.5) vs. New York Jets (43 total)
In the FantasyLabs projections, Kalif Raymond of the Bears has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at wide receiver. The veteran is a true bargain play under $4,000 but has been very involved in the Bears’ offense so far this season, posting another strong showing on Monday Night Football after salaries were already out for the coming week.
Raymond worked well with Case Keenum and hauled in a 41-yard touchdown to finish with a season-high 21 DraftKings points. Raymond has 19 catches on 20 targets this season, giving him an NFL-best 95% catch rate among WRs with 10+ targets.
He has at least five catches each week and is playing a very involved role for the Bears after joining them as a free agent from the Lions this past offseason. Raymond is working extremely well in coach Ben Johnson’s system, so whether Keenum gets another start or gives way to Tyson Bagent, look for Raymond to remain involved in Week 4.
The Jets have been solid against wide receivers this season, but Raymond is so cheap at only $3,600 that he doesn’t have to go off for a monster game. A few catches and around 50 yards will make him a strong play at this price, but he has the potential for more since he can still stretch the field and make big plays.
The key to Raymond’s emergence as a fantasy option in his 10th year in the NFL has been his higher-usage role with the Bears, and the workload is substantial enough to make him a great play at his low salary in Week 4.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with our Sleeper promo code.
NFL DFS Running Back Values
Chase Brown ($6,100) Cincinati Bengals (-2.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (51.5 total)
The Bengals and Jaguars are expected to put plenty of points on the board in their meeting in the Queen City. In that matchup, Chase Brown has the highest Projected Plus/Minus in THE BLITZ projections and the second-highest in the FantasyLabs projections.
Brown hasn’t found the end zone since Week 1, putting up solid totals but no scoring plays in road games against the Texans and the Steelers. Brown started the year with 18.8 DraftKings points in a home win over the Bucs, rushing for 56 yards and a touchdown. He’ll look to get back into the end zone this week, and it seems like a good spot to “buy the dip” since his salary has slid $1,000 since Week 1.
He played 70% of snaps each of the last two weeks and remains involved as both a rusher and receiver. He had 80 yards on 20 carries in Week 2, followed by 61 yards on 13 carries in Week 3. Additionally, the starting running back caught multiple passes in each game, although he wasn’t able to rack up many receiving yards.
Brown continues to be a workhorse running back for the Bengals, though, and, depending on the game script, could be very busy again in Week 4. The Jaguars have been solid against the run this year, allowing just one RB touchdown, but they have allowed at least five receptions to the position in each of their three games this season.
Brown brings more upside than his salary indicates, and especially if this is a high-scoring game as expected, he should be lined up well for a strong bounce-back week.
NFL DFS Tight End Values
George Kittle ($5,100) San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) vs. Denver Broncos (48 total)
The two sets of projections have very different value options near the top of their Plus/Minus projections for Week 4, with lots of uncertainty at the position early in the week. In THE BLITZ projections, George Kittle has the highest Plus/Minus projection at the position, and he also narrowly holds the top spot in the 50/50 aggregated projections.
Kittle made a very fast recovery from a torn Achilles to return in time for Week 1. While he had a quiet game in Australia, he has posted back-to-back big games while ramping up his usage in the last two weeks. He played 46% of snaps in Week 1 and 48% of snaps in Week 2, but in Week 3, his time on the field jumped all the way to 85% of the 49ers’ offensive snaps.
In Week 2, he had 18 DraftKings points against the Dolphins, but he was even better last week, hauling in six of his seven targets for 82 yards and two touchdowns for a total of 26.2 DraftKings points. Kittle is clearly a top red-zone target for the Niners and has been involved all over the field. Now that his workload has returned to normal, he should be a great fantasy option at tight end for as long as he’s healthy and the offense is humming along so well under Brock Purdy.
Kittle’s workload this week could be even higher if Mike Evans (rib) is out after leaving early last week. The team has already lost Ricky Pearsall (knee), De’Zhaun Stribling (ankle), and Demarcus Robinson (ankle) to IR, and Christian Kirk (calf) cannot return until Week 5 at the earliest. With so many targets available, Kittle should be heavily involved again this week as the team looks to improve to 4-0.
The Broncos gave up 11 catches for 90 yards and a touchdown to the Rams’ tight ends in Week 3 and five catches for 85 yards to the Chiefs’ tight ends in Week 1. Kittle will look to take advantage of that same matchup as he looks to continue his remarkably quick comeback and maintain his spot as one of the top fantasy tight ends to consider each week.
Pictured: Chase Brown
Photo Credit: Imagn
