NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Colts vs. Chiefs on Sunday Night Football (September 20th)

NFL Week 2 features a Sunday Night Football showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Indianapolis Colts. The Chiefs are listed as 6.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 46.5 points.

These two teams got off to wildly different starts this season. The Chiefs steamrolled the Broncos on Monday Night Football. They rode their revamped rushing attack on offense, while their defense suffocated Bo Nix and company. It was a strong reminder that, as long as the Chiefs are healthy, they deserve to be one of the favorites every single year.

Meanwhile, the Colts are coming off an embarrassing performance vs. the Ravens. Their defense was absolutely humiliated, allowing more than 500 yards of total offense and 41 points. Their offense wasn’t much better, so they have some major question marks to answer moving forward.

Let’s dive into all the fantasy options for Sunday Night Football.

As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.

And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

The running backs are the fantasy headliners in this contest. Jonathan Taylor has long been one of the best pure runners in football. He’s coming off another excellent season, finishing with just under 2,000 yards from scrimmage while leading the league with 20 total touchdowns.

He was even better at the start of the year when playing alongside Daniel Jones. From Weeks 1 through 13 last season, Taylor led all running backs with an average of 23.3 half-PPR fantasy points per game. He had at least 28.5 fantasy points on six separate occasions, so he had one of the highest ceilings in football. While playing primarily alongside the Colts’ backup QBs over the final five weeks, Taylor slipped to just 11.8 fantasy points per game. That was good for merely RB25 over that timeframe.

With Jones back in the fold for Week 1, Taylor was back to business as usual. He racked up 98 rushing yards on just 19 carries, and he added two rushing touchdowns. He ultimately finished with 26.1 DraftKings points, making him a top-eight RB on the week.

Taylor also showcased a bit more pass-catching upside than we’re used to seeing. He had a 14% target share in Week 1, and he was targeted on 20% of his routes run. That’s a potentially huge development. Taylor’s lack of receiving potential has kept him a tier below the truly elite fantasy backs in years past. With his quarterback’s mobility potentially compromised this season, Taylor could see an uptick in that department.

Unfortunately, Taylor will face a significant challenge in Week 2. The Chiefs defense was outstanding in Week 1, and Taylor owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -3.7 for this matchup. Add in the fact that the Colts are sizable underdogs, and it’s hard to get too excited about his prospects.

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On the other hand, it’s pretty easy to believe in Kenneth Walker III. He’s always been one of the most talented runners in the league, but he was held back by his workload in Seattle. He spent the past few seasons in a timeshare with Zach Charbonnet, so he wasn’t fully allowed to spread his wings.

Walker was unleashed in the playoffs last season, and he could do the same in Kansas City. He had 23 carries in Week 1 vs. the Broncos, and he responded with 173 rushing yards and a score. He also had six targets, which he turned into three catches, 18 yards, and another touchdown.

Walker’s underlying utilization was fantastic: 74% carry share, 25% target share, 40% targets per route run. He also had 89% of the short-yardage opportunities, including 100% of the carries from inside the five-yard line.

If Walker can go crazy vs. the Broncos’ stout defense, he should be salivating at the thought of facing the Colts. They surrendered 202 rushing yards to the Ravens last week, with Derrick Henry accounting for 144 yards and three scores.

Walker owns the top median projection in our NFL Models, and he also ranks first in projected Plus/Minus. He’s expected to be the highest-owned Captain, but he deserves that designation.

Patrick Mahomes rounds out the stud tier, and his Week 1 performance was a bit of a mixed bag. On one hand, he ripped off a touchdown run on the team’s first drive, which eased any concerns about his ACL surgery. On the other hand, he wasn’t particularly efficient as a passer. He completed just 55.6% of his passes for 184 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception.

Still, the good clearly outweighed the bad. Mahomes had shown more rushing upside last year than at any previous point in his career, and he kept that going in Week 1. He had seven total carries for 23 yards, which is an encouraging sign for his prospects moving forward.

We already know what Mahomes is capable of with his arm, and he won’t have to deal with the Broncos’ elite defense every week. This matchup vs. the Colts is significantly easier. They allowed more than 300 passing yards to Lamar Jackson last week, and Mahomes owns an elite +4.5 Opponent Plus/Minus.

While Walker slightly edges Mahomes in terms of median expectation, Mahomes has the edge in projected ceiling. Both guys have plenty of appeal in this matchup, though choosing between them is probably the right move for tournaments. Quarterbacks and running backs typically have a negative correlation unless the RB is an elite pass-catcher.

NFL DFS Midrange Picks