After an awesome Christmas weekend when the NFL had games spread throughout the weekend, the league is much more focused on Sunday afternoon this weekend, with a massive 13-game slate in the main DFS window. Ten games kick off at 1:00 p.m. ET, which should keep things very busy in the early window, with three more games making up the late wave.
With just two weeks left in the regular season, the playoff races are taking shape, and teams are playing their way in or out of contention. With so many more teams in action this week, there are multiple great options to consider when building your Week 17 NFL DFS lineups. The highest over/under on the slate is in the matchup between the Commanders and the 49ers, followed closely by the Eagles-Cardinals matchup. The 49ers, Eagles, Bills, and Chiefs have the highest implied team totals this week, so we should have star players in great places to produce.
As you start your prep for Sunday’s slate, let’s take a look at a few players who stand out for Week 17, using the early projections in our NFL Player Models. Of course, these models update frequently.
Things will likely change between now and Sunday, but it’s still good to have a plan of attack.
If there’s news between now and lock — and there will be — the models will update to reflect that.
As always, they’re powered by Sean Koerner — the most accurate fantasy ranker in the industry from 2019-2021.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Values
Baker Mayfield ($6,100) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) vs. New Orleans Saints (42.5 total)
The Bucs have been a good fit for Baker Mayfield this season, and they currently have a one-game lead over both the Falcons and Saints in the race for the division. They’ll host New Orleans this week in an important contest, and the projections indicate that Mayfield is a solid value play to consider if you pass up on all the stars at the position.
Mayfield has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of any quarterback priced under $7,000 in the FantasyLabs projections. He also ranks No. 5 overall in Projected Plus/Minus in those projections and the top seven in both THE BLITZ projections and Chris Raybon’s projections. In an evenly-blended three-way aggregate, he is tied for the most Pts/Sal and has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position.
Mayfield has been strong all season but has played especially well the last three weeks, exceeding salary-based expectations and delivering three straight wins for the Bucs against the Falcons, Packers, and Jaguars. He threw multiple touchdowns in each of those three contests, totaling nine touchdowns (one rushing) and just one turnover. He averaged 269.3 passing yards per game over that stretch, highlighted by his 381 passing yards in Green Bay.
This will be his second game against the Saints this season. The first matchup took place back in Week 4, and Mayfield threw for three touchdowns and 246 yards in a 26-9 win. The Saints have been solid against quarterbacks on the whole this season but have allowed multiple passing scores in six of their last 12 games. It’s a neutral matchup, but since Baker has been playing so well, he’s poised to be a solid value option with a good ceiling this week at home in Tampa, where weather shouldn’t be a factor.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Values
Demario Douglas ($4,300) New England Patriots (+12) at Buffalo Bills (40.5 total)
In the aggregated projections, Demario Douglas has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all receivers this week, behind only Rashee Rice of the Chiefs. Douglas is a very cheap way to get a highly targeted option in an offense that will likely have to throw the ball a lot while trying to keep up with the Bills in Buffalo.
Douglas has been one of the few bright spots throughout the season for the Patriots offense. He and DeVante Parker are both good value plays as they continue to get most of the targets from Bailey Zappe, especially if JuJu Smith-Schuster (ankle) and Hunter Henry (knee) are sidelined for another week. In Denver on Sunday night football, Douglas had five catches on eight targets for 74 yards.
He has at least five catches in five of the six most recent games in which he was available, although he did miss two games during that span due to a concussion. The sixth-round pick played a reduced role in his first game back from injury, but he was in a more prominent role Sunday night and looked good once again. He is still looking for his first NFL touchdown, but he gets enough targets to be a great value at barely more than $4,000.
Douglas had four catches for 54 yards and ran for 20 more yards in the Patriots’ upset of the Bills in Week 7. Buffalo has been good against receivers this season but has allowed five receiver touchdowns in the past four games. With so much volume potentially heading his way, he should be able to overcome the matchup and return value in this AFC East rematch.
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NFL DFS Running Back Values
Devin Singletary ($5,600) Houston Texans (-3.5) vs. Tennessee Titans (42.5 total)
The Texans’ playoff chances took a big hit with their loss to the Browns on Sunday, but they’ll hope the potential return of C.J. Stroud will get them headed back in the right direction. While Stroud has been out the last two weeks, Devin Singletary has continued to lead the ground game. This week, Singletary has the highest second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on Sunday’s slate in the three-way blended projections.
Singletary has seized the starting running back job in Houston from Dameon Pierce, who had a kick return touchdown last week but hasn’t been very active in the offense. Singletary has gotten most of the snaps and touches in the backfield over the last several weeks. Last week, the Texans fell too far behind and were only able to give Singletary nine carries, which he took for an efficient 44 yards while adding three catches for 19 yards out of the backfield.
Two weeks ago, Singletary and the Texans beat the Titans 19-16. In that game, Singletary took 26 carries for 121 rushing yards. He didn’t find the end zone in that game but did manage to exceed salary-based expectations, as he has five times in his last seven contests.
If Stroud is back, the offense should be much more effective as a whole, which gives Singletary a higher ceiling. However, if he misses another week, Singletary would be even more the focus of the offense. Since the game is expected to stay close, he shouldn’t end up in last week’s scenario and should be back to a regular workload with strong production, especially for a running back priced under $6,000.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineup using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Values
Chigoziem Okonkwo ($3,600) Tennessee Titans (+3.5) at Houston Texans (42.5 total)
Trey McBride continues to bring elite value every week and has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate in the aggregated projections. However, his salary has continued to climb and is almost $6,000 this week. Instead, let’s take a look at Okonkwo, who is much cheaper and has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate at tight end, behind only McBride.
Okonkwo caught a touchdown from Derrick Henry last week and led the team in targets and catches by converting all six of the passes thrown his way into catches for a total of 63 yards. He has at least 45 yards in four of his last five games, with at least three catches in each contest during that span.
He has shown a strong connection with both Ryan Tannehill and Will Levis, so whichever one starts at quarterback, he will be a solid play against the Texans. Opposing tight ends have produced an average of 62.9 yards per game, the third-most of any team in the NFL.
If you are going cheap at tight end or in your utility spot, Okonkwo has been getting enough action to be a nice way to spend under $4,000 and still get very good upside in a favorable matchup.
