The Week 11 NFL main slate kicks off on Sunday, Nov. 17, at 1 p.m. ET. In this piece, I highlight the quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical DFS Tools, most specifically the industry-leading FantasyLabs Models.
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Top Quarterbacks in the FantasyLabs Models
There are two quarterbacks atop the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.
- Lamar Jackson: $7,700 DraftKings; $8,800 FanDuel
- Kyle Allen: $5,300 DraftKings; $7,200 FanDuel
Lamar Jackson: Baltimore Ravens (-4) vs. Houston Texans, 49.5 Over/Under
UPDATE (Nov. 16): WR Marquise Brown (ankle) got in a limited practice on Friday and is tentatively expected to play. Texans CBs Bradley Roby (hamstring) and Lonnie Johnson Jr. (concussion) are questionable.
For the second game this year, Jackson last week had a perfect 158.3 passer rating — and that wasn’t even the most impressive part of his performance.
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) November 11, 2019
He isn’t the 2019 MVP frontrunner, but he should be.
Jackson had yet another Millionaire Maker-winning performance in Week 10, and for the season, he’s easily the No. 1 fantasy quarterback with 28.3 DraftKings and 27.0 FanDuel points per game. He’s in peak form.
No quarterback in NFL history has ever had 3,000 passing and 1,000 rushing yards in the same season. Jackson is on pace for 3,619.6 and 1,248. He’s doing what no quarterback has done in the modern era.
This graph shows every player season in NFL history prior to 2018, minimum 6 games played.
Passing Yards per Game = X-Axis
Rushing Yards per Game = Y-Axis
For fun, I added in 2019 Lamar Jackson, through 10 weeks. I think he stands out. pic.twitter.com/pu8noAeerO
— Football Perspective (@fbgchase) November 12, 2019
Thanks to his elite running ability — he’s No. 11 among all players with 78.0 rushing yards per game — Jackson has an incredibly high Konami Code floor. At the position, Jackson is No. 1 with 12.4 carries and 2.6 red-zone carries per game (per Player Profiler).
In every week but one, he has been a fantasy QB1 (per RotoViz NFL Stat Explorer).
No quarterback has provided more value than Jackson has with his +9.06 and +9.39 Plus/Minus values on DraftKings and FanDuel, and he has hit his salary-based expectations in every game but one.
As for this week, Jackson is in a great spot and on the positive side of his splits (per our FantasyLabs Trends Tool).
- Home (nine starts): 24.1 FanDuel points, +7.21 Plus/Minus, 100% Consistency Rating
- Away (eight starts): 22.2 FanDuel points, +5.01 Plus/Minus, 75% Consistency Rating
- Favorite (11 starts): 24.5 FanDuel points, +7.53 Plus/Minus, 90.9% Consistency Rating
- Underdog (six starts): 20.7 FanDuel points, +3.70 Plus/Minus, 83.3% Consistency Rating
The Texans are coming off the bye, so maybe they will be healthy, but cornerbacks Bradley Roby (hamstring) and Lonnie Johnson Jr. (concussion) both missed Week 9 and are uncertain to play this weekend. If they are out, safety Justin Reid will likely play as an exploitable substitute slot defender once again.
Against quarterbacks with at least 10 NFL starts — in other words, against guys who aren’t Gardner Minshew and Kyle Allen — the Texans have allowed 24.2 FanDuel points with a +7.50 Plus/Minus and 100% Consistency Rating.
Jackson’s expensive, but it’s hard to argue he hasn’t earned his salary to this point in the year. In cash games and guaranteed prize pools alike, Jackson is a high-end option.
Long-term team-specific production patterns can be analyzed with our FantasyLabs Correlations Tool, and in their seven games together, Jackson and wide receiver Marquise Brown have had a strong 0.55 correlation in their production. If L-Jax has a big game, Hollywood could go off as well. For GPPs, use our Lineup Builder to stack Jackson with his No. 1 wide receiver.
Jackson is the unanimous No. 1 quarterback in our Pro Models for FanDuel, where he has position-high ceiling and floor projections and the top Projected Plus/Minus value. He’s also the No. 1 option in the Bales Model for DraftKings, where he leads all quarterbacks with his median projection and seven Pro Trends.
Kyle Allen: Carolina Panthers (-5.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons, 50 O/U
UPDATE (Nov. 16): LT Greg Little (Concussion) is in. Falcons CB Desmond Trufant (toe) is in.
Right now, the NFL has a plethora of mediocre starting quarterbacks with the Allen surname. Of all those guys, I guess Kyle Allen is the one who stands out the most this week.
But when I think of starting him, I get this image of Vince Vaughn from “The Break-Up” incredulously looking at Jennifer Aniston and saying, “Why would I want to do dishes?”
Why would I want to start Kyle Allen?
There are a number of reasons.
First, he’s cheap, especially on DraftKings, where he has an 86% Bargain Rating. If you roster him, you will have the flexibility to pay up at other positions. And that’s especially true if you don’t roster his teammate and running back Christian McCaffrey, the slate’s most expensive player.
McCaffrey will likely be popular, but he and Allen have a -0.49 correlation in Allen’s eight career starts. So if you roster Allen and don’t stack him with McCaffrey, you will likely have a contrarian lineup, and if Allen goes off, there’s actually a decent chance that McCaffrey won’t have a big game.
But that doesn’t mean that Allen isn’t stackable. His success has been strongly tied to that of his non-McCaffrey teammates.
- TE Greg Olsen (seven games): 0.85 correlation
- WR Curtis Samuel (eight games): 0.65 correlation
- WR D.J. Moore (eight games): 0.43 correlation
Allen has several non-McCaffrey paths to success.
Allen’s not a dynamic player, but in his eight starts (dating back to Week 17 last year), he’s completed 61.3% of his attempts for 1,826 yards, 12 touchdowns and five interceptions, added 18 carries for 33 yards and a touchdown and averaged 15.4 DraftKings points per game.
That’s good enough to make you think he could usable in a good matchup, and that’s what he’s got this week. The Falcons are No. 31 in pass defense (per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric) and have allowed the fifth-most DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks with 23.7 per game.
In their six full games without Pro-Bowl strong safety Keanu Neal (Achilles, IR), they have allowed 25.3 DraftKings points per game.
The Falcons did well last week against quarterback Drew Brees, holding him to a scoreless 287 yards, but that was a get-up game in which they were coming off the bye and playing for head coach Dan Quinn’s job.
This week I expect the Falcons to regress back to their normal form. Of the four quarterbacks they’ve faced similar to Allen in salary, only one — Week 1 run game-restricted Kirk Cousins — has failed to score 23-plus DraftKings points.
No. 1 cornerback Desmond Trufant (toe) seems likely to return to action this week, but the secondary is still far from settled. Within the past month, Ricardo Allen has moved from free safety to strong safety, slot corner Damontae Kazee has shifted to free safety and fourth-round backup corner Kendall Sheffield has slid into the slot from the perimeter.
With so many relocated defensive backs, it’s not hard to see how the Falcons could allow multiple long touchdowns because of back-end communication issues and lack of coordination.
In his two games against teams with a bottom-10 pass defense DVOA — the Cardinals and Buccaneers — Allen has done well enough.
- Week 3 (at Cardinals): 25.3 DraftKings points, 19-of-26 for 261-4-0 passing
- Week 6 (at Buccaneers): 17.4 DraftKings points, 20-of-32 for 227-2-0 passing
Because of the matchup, Allen will be more popular than he normally is, but in his seven main-slate games, he has had a GPP ownership rate of just 2.1% (per our FantasyLabs Ownership Dashboard). Even with enhanced exposure, he could still be fairly contrarian.
I doubt I’ll go with Allen in cash games: It’s not hard to imagine him putting up only 200 yards with zero touchdowns. But he’s a viable tournament option.
Allen is the No. 1 quarterback in the CSURAM88, Levitan, Koerner, Raybon, SportsGeek and Freedman Models for DraftKings, where he has a top-three mark with six Pro Trends.
Upside Quarterbacks for Guaranteed Prize Pools
Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints ($6,900 DK, $8,300 FD): Brees disappointed last week with a zero-touchdown Superdome performance, but he’s in a great bounceback spot. The Bucs have allowed the second-most DraftKings points to opposing quarterback with 26.3 per game, and they have one of the league’s most extreme funnel defenses, ranking No. 1 against the run (-41.4% DVOA) but No. 27 against the pass (26.1% DVOA).
Wide receiver Michael Thomas has a great matchup against rookie corner Jamel Dean, who is replacing the recently cut Vernon Hargreaves III in nickel packages. The Bucs have allowed an NFL-high 501.1 air yards and yards after the catch per game to opponents (per AirYards.com). Brees has position-high ceiling and floor projections on DraftKings. UPDATE (Nov. 16): Bucs OLBs Carl Nassib (groin) and Anthony Nelson (hamstring) are out. CB Carlton Davis (hip) is in. CB M.J. Stewart (knee) is out.
Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans ($6,800 DK, $8,200 FD): Watson has a tough matchup against the newly formed three-headed corner unit of Jimmy Smith, Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey, but he’s coming off the bye, and wide receiver Will Fuller (hamstring) has returned to practice and is trending toward playing on Sunday.
Watson is the No. 2 fantasy quarterback with 25.7 DraftKings points per game, and he is on the positive side of his splits, averaging 26.4 DraftKings points with a +8.81 Plus/Minus in his 14 career starts as an underdog. He leads all quarterbacks with his +3.68 Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings. He has scored a touchdown in every NFL game he’s played. With Watson as the starter, the Texans are 8-3 against the spread as road underdogs, good for a 43.6% return on investment (per Bet Labs). UPDATE (Nov. 16): WR Will Fuller (hamstring) and LT Laremy Tunsil (knee) are questionable. Ravens NT Michael Pierce (ankle) is doubtful.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys ($6,700 DK, $8,100 FD): Dak is coming off a 397-yard, three-touchdown Sunday Night Football performance, and he’s the No. 5 fantasy quarterback with 24.3 DraftKings points per game. The Lions have allowed the second-most air yards and yards after the catch combined per game to opposing teams with 478.3. Dak has a position-high seven Pro Trends on DraftKings. UPDATE (Nov. 16): Lions QB Matthew Stafford (back) and DT Da’Shawn Hand (ankle) are out. S Tracy Walker (knee) is questionable.
Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers ($6,700 DK, $8,000 FD): No. 1 wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders (ribs) suffered an injury on Monday Night Football and is questionable for Week 11. If Sanders plays, Garoppolo will have some appeal. He’s disappointed this year, but in Week 9, he had a season-best 317-yard, four-touchdown passing performance against the Cardinals, who are dead last with a 40.7 PFF coverage grade. UPDATE (Nov. 16): TE George Kittle (knee) and Matt Breida (ankle) are doubtful. Sanders (ribs) is a questionable game-time decision.
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills ($6,600 DK, $7,800 FD): Allen’s 6.4 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A) is a Daniel Jones-level mark that leaves a lot to be desired, but he’s No. 2 at the position with 7.4 carries and 1.6 red-zone carries per game. The Dolphins are No. 30 in pass defense DVOA, and Allen put up 21.3 FanDuel points against them in Week 7.
They are without perimeter corners Xavien Howard (knee, IR) and Ken Webster (ankle), and they have moved Jomal Wiltz from the slot to safety, so for the past two weeks the Dolphins have hilariously deployed undrafted backups Nik Needham, Ryan Lewis and Chris Lammons in Patriots-style shadow coverage. Allen and wide receiver John Brown could hook up for a few big pass plays. UPDATE (Nov. 16): Dolphins S Reshad Jones (chest) is expected to play.
Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,500 DK, $7,600 FD): Winston has a league-worst 14 interceptions and a lowly 59.7% completion rate, but he trails only Matthew Stafford with his 10.6 intended air yards and 1.4 yards beyond the first-down marker per attempt (per Next Gen Stats).
Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore (thigh, hamstring) exited Week 10 and seems doubtful for Week 11. Without him, wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will respectively have much easier matchups against cornerbacks Eli Apple on the perimeter and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson in the slot. Winston has a position-high 67% Bargain Rating on FanDuel. UPDATE (Nov. 16): Lattimore is out.
Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders ($6,100 DK, $7,400 FD): Carr has career-high marks with a 70.8% completion rate and 8.2 AY/A this year. He is on the positive side of his splits with 21.0 DraftKings points and a 76.9% Consistency Rating across his 13 career games as a home favorite. The Bengals are No. 32 in pass defense DVOA, and No. 1 corner Dre Kirkpatrick (knee) has been out since Week 7. The Raiders have a slate-high 29.5-point implied Vegas total. UPDATE (Nov. 16): Kirkpatrick (knee, IR) is out.
Ryan Finley, Cincinnati Bengals ($5,000 DK, $6,300 FD): He will have an almost nonexistent ownership rate, and the Raiders have allowed the third-most DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks with 24.3 per game. Slot cornerback Lamarcus Joyner (hamstring) seems likely to miss Week 11, and as bad as he has been with his 76.5% catch rate allowed, backup Nevin Lawson is probably worse, so slot receiver Tyler Boyd could gift a lot of fantasy points to Finley. UPDATE (Nov. 16): WR A.J. Green (ankle) is out. Joyner is out.
FantasyLabs Positional Breakdowns
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Pictured above: Lamar Jackson
Photo credit: USA TODAY-Sports