NFL DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (December 30) for Lions vs. 49ers Monday Night Football

NFL Week 17 will wrap up with a Monday Night Football contest between the Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers. This game was pegged as a potential battle for the top seed in the NFC playoffs before the start of the season, but unfortunately, the stakes are not particularly high. The 49ers have already been eliminated from playoff contention, while this game means absolutely nothing to Detroit. It doesn’t matter if they win or lose this week; they need to beat the Vikings in the final game of the year to secure the No. 1 seed in the conference.

That creates an interesting dynamic with the Lions. There’s a chance that the starters don’t play the full game or see fewer opportunities than usual. The team is already dealing with a myriad of injuries, and getting out of San Francisco without any further damage should be the team’s top priority.

Still, the Lions are listed as 3.5-point road favorites in this spot, and there has been minimal line movement all week. The total on this matchup sits at 50.5 points.

Let’s dive into all the DFS options for Monday Night Football.

You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.

Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).

You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:

NFL DFS Stud Picks

Jahmyr Gibbs is the most expensive player on this slate, and he 100% should be. He’s been the No. 2 PPR running back in fantasy this season on a per-game basis, despite spending most of the year splitting carries with David Montgomery. Montgomery is currently on the shelf, so this should be Gibbs’ backfield moving forward.

The thought of what Gibbs can do with the backfield to himself should terrify anyone who is fading him. Gibbs has played on at least 60% of the Lions’ offensive snaps in six games this season, and he’s turned in five top-10 PPR finishes at the position. He’s yet to finish as worse than RB16 in a game with that many snaps, and he has one finish as the RB1 overall. Basically, he’s been an absolute monster when getting most of the opportunities.

Gibbs has now played in four career games without Montgomery, and he’s averaged 102.3 rushing yards, 4.8 receptions, 35.5 receiving yards, and 0.8 touchdowns per game. That is insane production. Gibbs and Montgomery have also combined to score in all but one game this season, so Gibbs feels like the biggest threat in football to find the paint in any given week.

The matchup vs. the 49ers is also elite. San Francisco has been gauged on the ground this season, ranking 27th in rush defense EPA. They’ve still been respectable against the pass, so it’s a perfect spot for a team that loves to run the football to try to pound the rock.

The only downside with Gibbs is the playoff scenario. As mentioned above, this game means absolutely nothing to the Lions, and it’s possible that they lean on their star players a bit less than usual. The game vs. the Vikings next week will determine whether they get the No. 1 seed or the No. 5 seed, and with the amount of injuries they have on defense, getting the first-round bye is vital.

Of all the players that Dan Campbell could choose to rest, Gibbs is near the top of the list. He plays a physically demanding position, and the cupboard is pretty bare behind him with Montgomery already sidelined.

That’s something to keep in mind, but Gibbs still stands out as the best overall play on the slate in our NFL Models. He leads all players in projected Plus/Minus, and he has one of the top ceiling projections as well.

Amon-Ra St. Brown is the other high-priced option in this matchup, and he’s also had a fantastic season. The Lions haven’t thrown the ball as much as they did last year, resulting in roughly 20 fewer receiving yards per game for St. Brown, but he’s made up for it with a career-best 11 touchdowns.

St. Brown also remains the team’s clear leader in the passing game. He’s posted a 27% target share, so he’s been a focal point when the Lions have had to take to the air.

That gives him an elite ceiling in games where Detroit is forced to throw the ball. We saw that two weeks ago vs. the Bills when St. Brown racked up 18 targets, 14 receptions, 193 yards, and a touchdown.

He’s now finished with more than 40 DraftKings points in two of his past five outings, but when he hasn’t gone off, he’s struggled to return value. He’s scored 19 DraftKings points or fewer in seven of his past nine, so he’s had a pretty wide range of outcomes. Add in the matchup and the fact that he might not see a full complement of snaps, and he feels pretty risky at his current salary.

NFL DFS Midrange Picks

The two quarterbacks headline this price range. Jared Goff is the more expensive option of the two, and he’s had the better fantasy season. He’s QB7 in terms of points per game despite playing for one of the lowest pass-volume teams in football. He’s made up for it with phenomenal efficiency, and he’s taken advantage in the weeks where he has been allowed to air it out. Goff has scored at least 23.07 DraftKings points in three straight games, including 44.06 two games ago vs. the Bills.

However, this is not an ideal matchup for Goff, even if there were zero concerns about him finishing the game. He’s historically had some drastic home/road splits, dipping to just 14.76 DraftKings points per game on the road as a member of the Lions. That’s good for an average Plus/Minus of -5.03, compared to a mark of +2.44 when playing at home (per the Trends tool).

The 49ers have also been significantly better at limiting fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. They’ve allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to the position, giving Goff an Opponent Plus/Minus of -2.2.

Goff is still a quarterback, and quarterbacks will always have value in the single-game format. That said, expectations should probably be tempered.

Brock Purdy stands out as the superior target in our models. He had a disastrous showing in a must-win game vs. the Rams two weeks ago, but he bounced back with 25.12 DraftKings points last week vs. the Dolphins. He’s scored at least 19.36 DraftKings points in seven of his past nine outings, so he’s been a pretty reliable target overall.

The matchup for Purdy is also outstanding. The Lions are middle of the pack in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs, but their defense has been significantly worse towards the end of the season. They’ve been decimated by injuries, and they’ve dropped all the way to 30th in pass defense EPA since Week 13. The game vs. the Bills was obviously a disaster, but they’ve also allowed 31 points to the Packers and 381 yards to the Bears in recent weeks.

Purdy leads all players with a +2.3 Opponent Plus/Minus, and he stands out as clearly underpriced at just $9,400.

The 49ers started the year with one of the most talented groups of skill-position players in the league, but injuries have left them with just a few standouts. That includes George Kittle. He’s turned in one of his best seasons as a professional, averaging 5.2 catches and 74.4 receiving yards per game with eight total touchdowns.

However, Kittle’s target volume has ultimately stayed pretty steady. He’s at 22% for the year, and he’s been between 22% and 24% in three straight games. He’s relying more on efficiency than volume, which poses a bit of a concern vs. the Lions. No team in football has allowed fewer fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, so it’s a brutal spot. Kittle’s salary is also up to a season-high $9,000, so there’s some sell-high merit with him on Monday.

Isaac Guerendo will return to the 49ers’ lineup this week after missing their last contest, and he should step back into a prominent role. He was fantastic in his first start of the year, finishing with 26.8 DraftKings points, and he’s averaged 5.2 yards per carry overall as a rookie.

How the 49ers split the carries between Guerendo and Patrick Taylor will ultimately determine his evening. If he steps right back into a featured role, he’s underpriced across the industry. If it’s more of a committee, then both he and Taylor are overpriced.

Our projections see the first scenario as more likely, making him a strong target at his current salary. That’s particularly true on FanDuel, where his $10,500 salary comes with an 88% Bargain Rating. Taylor stands out as one of the worst options on the slate in terms of projected Plus/Minus, so Guerendo is the clear man to target in the 49ers’ backfield.

Jameson Williams is the big-play specialist in the Lions’ receiving corps. His role has grown in his third professional season, and he’s racked up an 18% target share and 31% air yards share for the year. His average depth of target (aDOT) is 12.9 yards downfield, which is roughly 4.3 more yards than St. Brown.

Ultimately, he’s a boom-or-bust type of player. When he catches a long pass or two, he has the potential to provide outstanding value. When he doesn’t, he’s likely going to bust. He racked up 29.0 DraftKings points last week, but he had 13.0 or fewer in each of his four prior outings. Williams has seen his price tag increase by $1,000 following last week’s performance, so he could be a bit overpriced in a tough matchup.

Jauan Jennings was not expected to be a key part of the 49ers’ offense at the start of the year, but he has stepped into the team’s top WR role following the injury to Brandon Aiyuk. He’s coming off a down performance last week, but he still has a 28% target share and 37% air yards share since rejoining the rotation in Week 10. Those are WR1-worthy numbers.

A matchup vs. the banged-up Lions’ defense stands out as an ideal buy-low spot. Jennings ranks fourth on this slate in projected Plus/Minus, and he has significantly more upside than his salary suggests.

Deebo Samuel benefits from the same matchup as Jennings, and while he hasn’t been a focal point of the offense this season, he was very busy in Week 16. He ultimately racked up nine targets and five carries, finishing with 121 total yards and a score.

Samuel hasn’t been as consistently involved as Jennings this season, but he’s had a target share of at least 23% in back-to-back games. Add in his work as a runner – and his touchdown upside – and he’s another strong target in this price range.

Sam LaPorta has had a slightly disappointing season after taking the league by storm as a rookie. However, his role has grown since the start of the year. He had just a 9% target share through Week 7, but he’s been at a much more respectable 19% since then. He’s also racked up 33% of the team’s end zone targets over that stretch, so he’s live for a touchdown most weeks.

Unfortunately, this is a really tough matchup. The 49ers have been outstanding at limiting fantasy points to all pass-catchers this season, including tight ends. They’ve allowed the third-fewest points per game to the position, so LaPorta will have his work cut out for him. Still, he’s scored double-digit fantasy points in four straight games, and he’s cheap enough that he’s still worth consideration.

NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks

• Defenses & Kickers – These options are always in play for the single-game format. This game is expected to be a bit higher scoring, so the kickers are grading out better than the defenses.
• Tim Patrick ($4,000 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – Patrick has solidified his role as the team’s No. 3 receiver, and he sees snaps on most of the team’s pass plays. He’s been targeted on 14% of his routes run for the year, though that figure did dip to just 4% last week.
• Ricky Pearsall ($3,600 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel) – Pearsall is the 49ers’ No. 3 receiver, and he’s seen around a 10% target share when in the lineup this season. That gives him some appeal against an undermanned Lions’ secondary.
• Craig Reynolds ($3,000 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) – If you are going to bank on the Lions pulling the plug early for Gibbs, Reynolds stands out as a priority option. He should command virtually no ownership, so he’s an elite leverage play if you’re going to fade Gibbs.
• Kyle Juszczyk ($2,400 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel) – Juszczyk typically sees one or two opportunities on a weekly basis. That’s not the most valuable role, but it’s not nothing either.