NFL DFS Showdown: Lineup Optimizer Rules and My Favorite Angle in Bills-Patriots

Our Lineup Optimizer is an incredibly powerful tool inside our Player Models, particularly when creating a large number of lineups. However, it’s just that — a tool. We still have to make decisions. Otherwise, everyone would have the same 150 lineups in each contest.

This is intended more as a teaching piece than a step-by-step guide. These rules are suggestions that can show you how to translate your read on this game into lineups.

Additionally, this piece focuses on DraftKings Showdown contests, but similar strategies are useful on FanDuel.

For my general Showdown strategy, you can read my Showdown primer.

My Favorite NFL DFS Angle in Bills vs. Patriots Showdown

Rhamondre Stevenson is underpriced as the Patriots do-it-all back this week. In games without Damien Harris, he has a massive floor for an offense that has no other trustworthy pieces. That’s the easy part.

The angle I am planning to exploit is looking to have higher kicker exposure than usual. The unpredictability and unreliability of secondary and tertiary options on these two teams increases the value of kickers on this slate, in my opinion.

Both of these kickers have cracked double digits multiple times this year, with Nick Folk scoring a whopping 17 and 21 DraftKings points this year. While he is unlikely to replicate that kind of legendary performance, this actually looks like a decent game for them on paper.

The current total sits at 43.5, much lower than the typical Bills game — aided by Josh Allen’s noticeably less effective play since injuring his elbow.

The signal here is that points might be at a premium with more stalled drives than we are used to seeing from the Bills offense. Kicker scoring is notoriously difficult to predict, but the same can be said for many of the offensive players in this game.

Lineup Optimizer Rules to Consider

General

• Max 3 players vs. opposing Defense
• Minimum salary cap 90%

Player Correlations

• Pair Captain Mac Jones with at least two Patriots pass-catchers
• Pair Captain Josh Allen with at least two Bills pass-catchers
• Pair Captain pass-catchers with at most one other pass-catcher from the same team.

Player Groups

• Max two kickers and defenses.
• Max two of Patriots wide receivers
• Max one Isaiah McKenzie and Khalil Shakir

Captain Pool (from highest to lowest priority)

Primary Targets

• Stefon Diggs
• Rhamondre Stevenson
• Josh Allen

Secondary Targets (Big Gap)

• Gabe Davis
• Devin Singletary
• Jakobi Meyers (if healthy)

Large-Field GPP Fliers

• Nick Folk
• Tyler Bass
• Isaiah McKenzie
• Nelson Agholor
• Dawson Knox
• Mac Jones