NFL DFS is a game of conviction, and below you’ll find a list of flag plants that our panel of DFS analysts are high on for Week 3.
Let’s get right into it.
Week 3 NFL DFS Flag Plants
Sean Koerner: Director of Predictive Analytics for Action Network
David Montgomery ($5,900 DraftKings; $7,100 FanDuel) (Cash)
David Montgomery sneaks into the low-end RB1 discussion this week since the Bears have abandoned the pass and should have a positive game script here against the Texans. Chicago has only averaged 48.5 plays a game, so we could see the volume for the entire offense go up 5-10 plays this week, and Montgomery is a good bet to see 20 or more touches here.
He’s the perfect cash game play this week considering his high floor and relatively cheap price point on all DFS sites.
Chris Raybon: Action Network Analyst
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,200 DraftKings; $7,800 FanDuel) (Cash/GPP)
Over his past eight games dating back to last season, St. Brown is averaging 11.4 targets, 8.5 catches, 92.5 yards, and 1.0 touchdowns per game. He was targeted 10 times in all of them and scored in all but one. Now he faces a Vikings defense on a short week that allowed Eagles WRs to catch 16-of-19 targets for 232 yards and a TD last week.
He caught at least seven passes in each game versus the Vikings last year and averaged an 8.5/75.5/0.5 stat line across the two meetings.
Nick Giffen: Predictive Analyst at Action Network
Jalen Hurts ($7,600 DraftKings; $8,100 FanDuel) (Cash)
Hurts has a higher median and floor projection than Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes, both of whom are priced higher than him. He also projects similarly in points per dollar to Josh Allen but comes in at a cheaper price point.
Washington’s defense has been a sieve so far in 2022, allowing the sixth most yards per game. They’ve given up the fourth most points through two weeks, but perhaps more importantly, my expected score metric shows that Washington should have allowed the most points scored against them over the first two games.
The matchup also suits Hurts well. The Commanders gave up the most rushing yards to the QB position last year. It doesn’t look to be a one-year trend either.
Washington has been in the bottom eight in each of the two seasons under the current coaching regime.
Matt LaMarca: FantasyLabs Contributor/Editor
Kyle Pitts ($4,800 DraftKings; $5,600 FanDuel) (GPP)
Call me a sucker for punishment, but I’m going back to the well with Pitts in tournaments. It feels like his career has been a disappointment, but that’s only because expectations have been sky-high. He managed more than 1,000 receiving yards as a rookie, which is the second-highest mark in league history.
He’s gotten off to a slow start this year, but there are still some encouraging signs. He ranks third at the position in air yards – trailing only Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews – and he’s second in unrealized air yards. Pitts has ultimately underperformed his expected fantasy points by -5.8 PPR points per game, the second-highest mark at the position per Pro Football Focus.
Pitts is down to just $4,800 for this week’s matchup vs. the Seahawks, which is the third-lowest mark of his career. The last time he was below $5,000 on DraftKings, he erupted for 29.9 DraftKings points vs. the Jets. Plenty of people have talked themselves into circles trying to find ways to justify Pitts, but this feels like the week it pays off.
Justin Bailey: FantasyLabs Senior Editor
Tyler Lockett ($5,800 DraftKings; $6,600 FanDuel) (GPP)
Tyler Lockett has a top-five Leverage Score in our models against the Falcons. At just $5,800 in a gross week, he certainly has my interest with a team-high 26% target share and 70.5% Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR). Overall, Lockett boasts a top 15 ceiling projection, but he’s projecting for less than 8% ownership.
Notorious: RotoGrinders Analyst
Dalvin Cook ($7,900 DraftKings; $8,300 FanDuel) (GPP)
It hasn’t been a great start to the season for Dalvin Cook, but there’s no reason to sound the alarm yet. He has played on 73% of the snaps and has handled 18.5 opportunities (carries + targets) per game. The usage is still solid, and we should love the fact that he’s seen 11 targets in the first two games.
With everyone paying up at receiver, paying up at running back is a way to get different in tournaments. Cook gets a home matchup against the Lions, who have been thrashed by enemy backs this season (dead last in fantasy points allowed).
The matchup is there, the game script should be there, and we have a squeaky wheel narrative after Cook only had six carries last week against the Eagles.
Dan Gaspar: RotoGrinders Analyst
Rhamondre Stevenson ($4,800 DraftKings; $5,400 FanDuel) (GPP)
It’s always scary investing in the Patriots backfield as they are often annoying with how they split up opportunities with no true workhorse back. That didn’t change in Week 2 with pass-catching back Ty Montgomery on the IR, but Stevenson did see a noticeable increase in usage in the passing game.
Stevenson was only targeted twice – the same number as co-RB Damien Harris – but Stevenson did run more routes than him (23-to-10) and was simply on the field more often (42-to-27). We have seen the Patriots’ running backs with pass-catching duties deliver on value in the past — think James White — and this happens to be a great spot for pass-catching running backs as Baltimore’s defense has allowed the third most receiving yards to running backs (129) through the first two weeks of the season.
It will be important to monitor Sunday morning inactives as something unexpected like a JJ Taylor call-up could put a damper on Stevenson’s expected usage, but if the roster is similar to last week, then I could see Stevenson getting you 15-20 fantasy points for cheap.
Beermakersfan: RotoGrinders Analyst
Joe Burrow ($6,600 DraftKings; $7,500 FanDuel) (GPP)
This Cincy squad has really suffered from the ‘ol Super Bowl hangover to open the season, but what a “get right” spot they get this week traveling to New York to take on the awful Jets defense. The Jets allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks last season, and there are no signs that this defense will be any better this year allowing 31 points to a Jacoby Brissett-led Browns team and a big game to Lamar Jackson.
Burrow has added value with his legs, totaling 73 rushing yards through the first two weeks, and has two clear stacking partners in stud wideouts Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
This total of 45 doesn’t stand out as much as some of the other games with 50+ point totals, and the masses may hesitate rolling with the Bengals this week making them a fantastic stack in your tournament builds.