We’re in the stretch of the season where 10-game slates are the prevailing size, thanks to international games and bye weeks. This week, we once again have a clear top game featuring my Detroit Lions, with a 53.5-point total that’s five points higher than any other game on the slate.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud: Jordan Love ($6,000) Green Bay Packers (+3) at Detroit Lions (53.5 Total)
Jordan Love is technically tied for the highest median projection at quarterback and comes in at third in ceiling projection. However, he’s the cheapest of the whole group of QBs at the top and has the best matchup in the best game environment on the board as his Packers take on the Lions.
Detroit’s passing defense could get a bump this week, as they’ll be fresh off a bye week and returning star safety Brian Branch. However, a bump to the Lions’ passing defense might mean moving from “historically awful” to “still quite bad, actually.” They’ve allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks and tight ends this season, as well as the second most to wide receivers. You’d be hard-pressed to find a defensive metric that doesn’t equate to “Detroit is miserable against the pass.”
Plus, the Lions’ own explosive offense – their 32.8 points per game is tied for the league lead – forces aggression out of their opponents. And this game is indoors in Detroit, which removes any potential risk related to weather or field conditions from the equation. Essentially, everything is pointing up for scoring in this game, with much of that coming through the air for the underdog Packers.
Love is a cash-game lock and a strong tournament play with only ownership as a downside. There are enough unique ways to build around this game that ownership isn’t a major concern, though, so it’s full steam ahead on the Love train this week.
Value: CJ Stroud ($5,700) Houston Texans (-10.5) vs. New York Giants (42.5 Total)
Personally, I’m not feeling especially compelled to go below Love in terms of salary expenditure at quarterback, at least in cash games. With that said, Stroud, at $300 cheaper, narrowly edges out the Packers signal caller in terms of Pts/Sal projection and is a far less popular option.
After struggling to keep any receivers healthy this season, Houston suddenly has a plethora of options, including the newly acquired Marvin Harrison Jr., who was a college teammate of Stroud’s. Last week, Harrison’s first in Houston, Stroud topped 300 yards passing and three touchdowns in a shootout win over the Jaguars in London. Now he gets a much softer passing defense in the Giants.
The bad news is that, with Houston favored by double digits, they might not need much passing offense. However, with starting running back David Montgomery unlikely to play, they could opt to continue attacking through the air even with a big lead. That amount of uncertainty makes Stroud sketchy for cash games but an intriguing tournament option.
Obviously, pairing Stroud with pieces from the Giants is one way to work around that, and I’ll be using SimLabs to build around Stroud instead of trying to guess right on stacking partners and bring-backs myself.
Quick Hits
Jared Goff ($6,800): Goff is a slightly tough click for me this week thanks to his ownership, which is a bit ahead of Love at the top. However, so is his ceiling projection, which leads the slate. Goff and the Lions have the highest team total on the slate. It just comes down to how many of their points come through the air or on the ground. I personally prefer the Lions’ running game thanks to how this matchup shakes out (as well as the ownership discrepancies), but Goff is a very good play on paper.
Brock Purdy ($6,600): Purdy is tied with Love for the highest median projection on the slate, with his $600 in additional salary making him a potential “pay up to be contrarian” pivot. He’s taking on a Falcons team that hasn’t been in a game with fewer than 49 points since Michael Penix returned, so this one could turn into a shootout. I laid out how I’m approaching this contest in my Trenches Report this week.
Matthew Stafford ($6,400): While we’re approaching panic time for the 2-4 Rams, Stafford has still topped 25 DraftKings points in three of six games this season. The reigning MVP has obvious stacking partners and a good matchup against the Raiders (see the previously linked offensive line matchup report). He’s also projecting to be less popular than Love and Goff, so he’s another potential tournament option.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
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