Week 11 features an 11-game main slate that kicks off at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
The top three quarterbacks by projection are all favored by at least a touchdown this week. As we’ve discussed, that doesn’t mean they can’t have a ceiling game without the opposition pushing the pace. It does mean those games are slightly less likely, though, especially in this case, where the three underdog teams are all much better defensively against the pass.
This is why I’m going a bit off the board at the high end with Justin Fields ($6,900). He’s returning from a four-week absence to take on the Lions in Detroit. The Lions rank fourth in yards allowed per rush attempt and just 24th against the pass — making them decidedly a pass funnel defense.
Especially when you consider what little rushing production they’ve allowed this year has largely been against rushing quarterbacks, Lamar Jackson scored 9.6 DraftKings points on the ground against Detroit, while Geno Smith ran for a season-high in yards while scoring 26 total fantasy points.
With Chicago as seven-point underdogs and the matchup tilting production his way, all signs are pointing in Fields’ direction. Especially at the low ownership we currently have him projected for, that makes him an excellent tournament play with or without receiver stacks.
How is Brock Purdy ($5,800) still priced under $6,000? He’s now topped 21 DraftKings points in the last five contests with Deebo Samuel ($6,300) active, with the Niners scoring at least 30 in every game Samuel has played in.
Purdy doesn’t need to produce much on his own to end up with a big score. They come as a result of the elite talent around him, with Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk ($7,200), Christian McCaffrey ($9,300), and George Kittle ($6,400) all among the league’s best at creating yards after the catch.
Rostering Purdy is a cheap way to gain access to the bulk of those players’ production without having to guess right on who has the big day or spend up at their price tags. Obviously, CMC’s rushing production doesn’t benefit Purdy, but the Bucs are a pass funnel defense that should tilt San Francisco to the passing game.
I have a hard time considering anyone but Purdy for cash games, as he leads our projections in Pts/Sal. He’s also a strong GPP play, though that probably comes with a need to pick out which of his pass catchers has the big day. I plan on trusting SimLabs for that one.
The top options at the slate mentioned above are, of course, still in play. Josh Allen ($8,200) is coming off an ugly Monday night football performance where he threw two interceptions in an upset loss against the Broncos. Neither pick was really his fault, though, and the public could be unreasonably down on him following the bad game. He’s still the overall QB1 in fantasy points this season.
Tua Tagovailoa ($7,700) has had some monster games this season but hasn’t topped 27 DraftKings points since September. It’s not a particularly appealing matchup against a Raiders team unlikely to keep pace, but that doesn’t tend to matter for Miami. It’s hard to predict when he’ll blow up again, but I want to roster him when his ownership is lower than usual.
Dak Prescott ($7,300) rounds out the group. He’s topped 24 DraftKings points in four straight, with three of those going over 30 and one going over 40. The 40-point game was a blowout against the Giants, so gamescript may not matter for him, either. Dallas seems to have (finally) shifted to a more pass-centric attack, making those scores more than just a statistical anomaly. On the other hand, that newfound approach will be put to the test against the league’s worst rushing defense.
Finally, we come to Kyler Murray ($6,100) who returned for the Cardinals last week. While he didn’t have a big fantasy game, he had a solid yards per attempt of 7.8, which would be good for sixth in the NFL if he qualified. More importantly, his rebuilt knee seemed fine. He ran for 33 yards and a score on six attempts on the ground. Against a Houston team that plays fast and can certainly put up points, this game has sneaky shootout potential.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
I’ll take the $700 in savings on Austin Ekeler ($8,600) over Christian McCaffrey ($9,300) at the top of the running back scale this week. Injuries have ravaged the Chargers, with Ekeler and Keenan Allen ($9,000) the last remaining competent skill position players on the field.
With Allen banged up, Ekeler could see an even larger role than the 26 opportunities he saw last week. Those led to “just” 21.50 DraftKings points against a stout Lions run defense. This week, he draws the Packers, who rank 22nd in DVOA against the run.
It’s also a game that the Chargers could look to control on the ground, given the poor offense on the other side. They’re only slight favorites, but won’t need to take any risks offensively to keep pace. While McCaffrey has been far more efficient, Ekeler should have the better role and matchup this week.
Which isn’t to say CMC is a bad play. He leads our median projections with a healthy lead over Ekeler. However, there’s only one football for the 49ers to spread to all of their weapons, injecting a touch of uncertainty into McCaffrey’s projection. I’d still prefer him if salary didn’t matter, but that $700 could go a long way this week.
Everyone rushed to play Devin Singletary ($5,300) in Week 9 against the Bucs — and he was a huge disappointment, running for just 26 scoreless yards on 13 carries. Then, as so often happens, he broke out in Week 10 at low ownership, with a 30/150/1 line in a better matchup against the Bengals.
Week 11 looks like it should be closer to Week 10. It’s an excellent matchup against Arizona, with Houston favored by 5.5 points against the league’s 28th-ranked rushing defense. Arizona has allowed the highest Plus/Minus against of any team on the slate to the position, and Singletary is the clear lead back this week.
He also projects as the most popular back on the slate, which makes him primarily a cash game option. His lack of pass-game involvement limits his ceiling, especially if the Cardinals can keep pace offensively and make Houston stay aggressive. That’s not something I’m willing to bet against at high ownership, especially right after his breakout game last week.
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, but it might be the last call for Tony Pollard ($6,600) as a high-end fantasy option. The Cowboys’ lead back has put up nothing but duds since around Week 3, which was the last time he scored even 18 DraftKings points. On the other hand, Dallas has faced plenty of tough run defenses in that span. This week they’re massive favorites against Carolina — the worst run defense in the league. The field has mostly (and justifiably) given up on Pollard, but I’m willing to get hurt again.
Somewhat quietly, Travis Etienne ($7,200) has one of the most locked-in workloads in the league. He trails only Josh Jacobs ($6,800) in carries in one less game, and has one fewer opportunity than McCaffrey. He had a dud last week against a tough 49ers defense in a blowout loss but is favored by a touchdown against the Titans this week. They’re a tough matchup for backs, but the gamescript could outweigh that. I prefer him over Jacobs, a 13.5-point underdog, for that reason.
The Lions improbably produced two big fantasy days at running back last week, with Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,000) and David Montgomery ($6,500) both topping 20 points. They’re too expensive to play together, but both are viable this week. I slightly prefer Montgomery against his former team, not because of a “revenge game” narrative, but because of the game script.
Detroit leaned on Gibbs heavily over the past few weeks with Montgomery injured and could look to preserve the rookie as big favorites here. Montgomery is also another week removed from his own injury, making him a safer bet for volume than last week.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
It feels like it’s been a long time since we had Tyreek Hill ($9,300), but he’s back to reclaim his throne atop the projections in Week 11. There’s not much more that needs to be said about Hill, who’s topped 25 DraftKings points in six of his nine appearances this season.
There’s not much rhyme or reason to his ceiling games, as his game-breaking speed can get him there on just a couple of targets. Miami is heavily favored against a Raiders team that’s more easily attacked on the ground, but that won’t matter if Hill breaks two or three long touchdown runs.
His price tag makes him somewhat hard to fit in cash games, but you’ll want at least some exposure to him in GPPs. He has the best chance of breaking the slate of any player this week.
It’s an extremely interesting weak for cheap wide receivers this week, with a handful all boasting solid price-considered projections. Rather than try to settle on one — let’s briefly mention a few.
Michael Wilson ($3,400) and Rondale Moore ($3,300) both get huge boosts with the return of Kyler Murray to the Cardinals. They saw six and eight targets respectively last week, with Wilson’s the more valuable downfield variety. Murray sure does love to check down to Moore, though, keeping him in play at full-PPR DraftKings. I prefer Wilson for GPPs and Moore for cash games, as the former has a wider range of outcomes.
Curtis Samuel ($3,600) returned from injury to see six targets against a tough Seattle defense last week. This time, he faces off against the lowly Giants. He’s seen at least four targets in all but one game this season while mixing in for the occasional rushing attempt. He’s a high-floor, no ceiling play, similar to Moore.
With Nico Collins likely to miss another game and last week’s breakout player Noah Brown also unlikely to play, Robert Woods ($3,700) will be the de facto number two option for the explosive Texans passing attack. Bobby Trees isn’t the player he used to be, but he’s too cheap for his role if Collins does in fact miss another week.
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,800) has been the model of consistency this year, with at least 100 yards or a touchdown in every game he’s played in. He should have no problem repeating that feat against a pass-funnel Bears defense at
Coors Ford Field in Week 11. His ceiling is a bit too low for his price tag, but he’s a rock-solid option for all contest types.
I don’t love the matchup for CeeDee Lamb ($9,200) in Week 11. As mentioned above when discussing Tony Pollard, Carolina is the easiest team in the league to run the ball on. They also play zone at a high rate, where Lamb’s big games have come against man-heavy defenses. Still, his recent results are undeniable — he’s averaging 29.5 DraftKings points over the past three weeks with Dallas leaning on their passing attack. I’ll be below the field on Lamb, but I will include him in some rosters in case he keeps the hot streak going.
While he didn’t fit neatly in either the “Stud” or “Value” section, Tank Dell ($5,900) might be my favorite wideout play this week. With the Texans receivers banged up, he’s a safe bet for a third straight double-digit target share. Given his seemingly strong connection with rookie CJ Stroud ($7,000), that’s a good bet for production. I’d downgrade him a bit if Collins returns, but Dell is the alpha receiver in Houston.
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NFL DFS Tight End Picks
With one player leading the median, ceiling AND Pts/SAl projection this week, I’m making the executive decision to combine those entries. That player is none other than Trey McBride ($4,400), henceforth to be known as Trey McGronk.
McGronk is finally free from the shadow of both Zach Ertz and awful quarterback play, with two games of 24 or more DraftKings points in his past three. The lone exception was the matchup with Cleveland, where Clayton Tune was under center for the Cardinals.
He’s been dominant otherwise and has a quarterback in Kyler Murray who likes to check down to his tight ends. This could be the last week we see him even this cheap, even with his salary rising nearly $2,000 since ERtz initially went down. With no cheap viable options, McGronk is a lock for cash games — and a fine GPP play as well.
Outside of McBride, the tight end position is fairly open in Week 11. Evan Engram ($4,300) projects just behind him against the Titans, both in median projection and Pts/Sal. I’ve been calling for Engram as a regression candidate for months now, but his touchdown allergy shows no sign of improving. He has the volume to break the slate if he ever finds the end zone — but that continues to be a big if.
Sam LaPorta ($5,800) has emerged as the No. 2 passing option for the Lions behind St. Brown. That keeps him in the weekly conversation at tight end. However, the game script suggests Detroit will play run-heavy this week, which lowers his chances of a big game. Lowers, but doesn’t eliminate.
George Kittle ($6,400) is coming off consecutive big games but is the slate’s most expensive tight end. While his odds of repeating that production for three weeks is somewhat low, his ownership is as well. The matchup with the Bucs is a good one for tight ends as well. They allowed Dalton Schultz ($5,000) to post a 10/130/1 line in Week 9.
Schultz is viable again here, just like the other secondary pass catchers in Houston. Like Robert Woods, his projection is much stronger if Noah Brown misses this game, but he’ll have a solid (by tight end standards) share of the passing volume regardless.
Editor’s note: Brown was ruled out after this article was submitted.
GPP Roster Construction
My favorite GPP builds this week are those built around the 49ers. They’re tough for single entry play as it’s hard to guess right on which skill position player has the best game, but for multi-entry contests, we can mix and match various pairings. The presence of some solid, cheap wide receivers also makes these builds more valuable, as you can pay down at a couple of spots and still fit another star (Hill, Allen/Ekeler, etc.) in 49ers builds.
One player I want to be overweight on the field this week is Tony Pollard. It’s hard to believe he forgot how to play football when named the starter in Dallas, and it’s literally the best possible matchup for him this week. It’s entirely possible it might never happen for him, but he’ll be low owned with his cheapest salary all year.
I’ll also have builds featuring each of the top quarterbacks on the slate with their primary pass catchers, as well as a few focused around the Lions/Bears game. I prefer Fields to Goff now that the former is only $300 more, with easy bringbacks on the Lions side in St. Brown and the running backs.
For more GPP thoughts, check out how I’m using our new SimLabs tool to build tournament rosters this week.
With the top options all having considerable flaws, I see no reason not to play Purdy in cash games. It’s incredibly hard for him to fail with the weapons around him, and his price tag is still way too low for his production. You could make a case for any of the expensive options, but finding the salary is difficult this week.
It’s partly because I’d love to be able to fit both McCaffrey and Ekeler in my cash game lineups. Ekeler should have a massive workload, and pairing McCaffrey and Purdy all but guarantees exposure to every 49ers touchdown. Remember, San Francisco has topped 30 points in every game with Deebo Samuel active this season.
Devin Singletary is a tough fade for me this week as well. I’m not expecting Week 10’s performance again, but the matchup and game environment should be nearly ideal. That’s assuming Dameon Pierce is out again, as currently projected. Singletary’s case is only helped by the injuries to Texans receivers — they could skew more run-heavy with a depleted receiver room.
It’s effectively impossible to fit a high-priced receiver and both top backs, but pivoting from one of Ekeler/McCaffrey to Tyreek Hill, Keenan Allen, or St. Brown are all options as well. You could then play four wide receivers with the remaining two backs, or find another cheapish running back. Both options project similarly, though the range of outcomes is wider when paying up for wideout — particularly with Hill.
From there, we have a slew of cheap wide receivers to consider, along with Tank Dell. I don’t particularly want to play three Texans, so I’ll probably land on Dell and two non-Houston cheapies if rostering Singletary. You certainly could play Dell/Singletary/Woods together, though. It’s fairly cheap and should capture the vast majority of their scoring.
The only potential pivot from McBride at tight end is Engram. I can almost see the case for making the swap if using Rondale Moore as one of the cheap wideouts, but I would only go that route if the extra $100 helps elsewhere in the lineup.
Finally, defense is wide open this week. There are not really any cheap options projecting particularly well, so it’s probably best to find the salary for one of the mid-$3,000 defensive units. I did mention the Titans ($2,900) as a defensive line mismatch earlier in the week, but they aren’t the most comfortable play — nor are they all that cheap.