Tight end is one of the most difficult positions to nail down each week. It’s a position where you can spend all the way up, pay all the way down, or look somewhere in between. Tight ends derive a bunch of their value from scoring touchdowns, which can be difficult to predict on a week-to-week basis.
In this piece, I highlight tight ends who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by the award-winning expert ranker, Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Or you can just use our NFL DFS sims to effortlessly create advanced lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace.
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Top NFL DFS Cash Game Picks
George Kittle ($5,700 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel)
Brock Bowers and Trey McBride have battled it out for the top TE spot this season. However, Kittle joins them as a legit third option in Week 7. Kittle is arguably on the backside of his career at 33 years old, but he’s still getting the job done at a pretty high level. He has five touchdowns through his first six games, and his 13.0 yards per reception and 9.4 yards per target are still inline with his career averages.
The only thing keeping Kittle back has been volume. He’s averaged just six targets per game, which is well below the top options at the position. However, that could change in Week 7. The 49ers lost yet another receiver in Week 6, with Mike Evans going down with an Achilles injury. He’s expected to sit out this week, joining guys like Deebo Samuel, De’Zhaun Stribling, Ricky Pearsall, and Demarcus Robinson on the sidelines.
With the team so thin at receiver, they could lean a bit more on Kittle and Christian McCaffrey. We saw that play out last week. Evans was limited to just a 40% snap snare, and Kittle responded with a 29% target share. It was his top mark of the season, and if he can maintain that figure moving, he’s poised for monster production. The 49ers are one of the best offensive teams in football, so a target share near 30% in San Francisco could pay massive dividends.
Add in the fact that Kittle is available at a discount compared to the top tight ends in fantasy, and he owns the top projected Plus/Minus for Week 7. The matchup vs. the Falcons is also a plus, with Atlanta allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to the position.
Tyler Higbee ($3,500 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel)
If you’re not paying up for Kittle, Higbee stands out as a really strong alternative. He’s already been a solid part of the Rams’ passing attack of late, posting a 14% target share over the past four weeks. He’s scored at least 9.2 fantasy points in three of those contests, and he’s finished as a top-14 TE in each.
Higbee should see a clear uptick in opportunities in Week 7. Davante Adams has been ruled out for 6-10 weeks with a hamstring injury, and he’s posted a 21% target share this year. Those looks are going to have to go somewhere, and the team’s tight ends are prime candidates to pick up the slack. With Terrance Ferguson also still out of the lineup, Higbee stands out as the biggest potential beneficiary.
Higbee would move close to must-play territory if Puka Nacua is also unavailable. He suffered a calf injury at practice on Thursday, and while the injury isn’t considered serious, his status vs. the Raiders is reportedly in jeopardy.
Even with Nacua projected in, Higbee ranks third at the position in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus. He’s a nice source of savings if you’re looking to pay up aggressively at some of the other positions.
Top NFL DFS Tournament Picks
Tucker Kraft ($4,700 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel)
The Packers are starting to heat up. They’ve won three straight games, and while their defense has been primarily responsible for the turnaround, their offense has also been better. They’re ninth in EPA per play over the past three weeks, with most of that success coming via the pass.
The Packers should see a bump to their run game with the return of Josh Jacobs, but he may not be 100% up to speed yet. They still figure to throw primarily through the passing game, and Kraft has become an increasing part of it. He owns a 19% target share over the past four weeks, and he’s been at 20% or higher in two of his past three.
Kraft still has the potential for more. He had six touchdowns in just eight games last year, but he’s found the paint just once this season.
He has plenty of scoring potential this week. The Packers are taking on the Lions in the game with the highest total of the week (53.5). Detroit has been dreadful defensively this season, and they’ve been historically bad against tight ends. They’re allowing 26.8 0.5-PPR points per game to the position, which is absolutely ridiculous. Opposing TEs have averaged 10.2 receptions, 109 yards, and 1.8 TDs per game against Detroit, and while that can’t continue all season, it clearly gives Kraft a bump for Week 7. He has the second-highest optimal lineup rate at the position in SimLabs.
Trey McBride ($7,400 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel)
On FanDuel, the gap between the highest-priced TEs and the midrange options isn’t nearly as stark as it is on DraftKings. Case in point: McBride costs $200 less on FanDuel, despite the salary cap being significantly higher. McBride is a whopping $2,700 more expensive than someone like Kraft on DraftKings, but that gap shrinks to just $1,700 on FanDuel.
It makes McBride a strong tournament option vs. the Broncos. Denver has the reputation for being an elite defensive team, and they are fifth in EPA per pass attempt so far this season. However, they haven’t been quite as good against tight ends as they have against receivers. They’ve allowed the 14th-most fantasy points per game to the position, and McBride is not the typical tight end.
McBride could also be a bit overlooked this week. He’s projected for less than 10% ownership on FanDuel, with Kittle and Brock Bowers both expected to be more popular. That makes him an interesting pivot. He just barely trails Kittle in terms of projected Plus/Minus, and he trails only Kittle and Kraft in terms of optimal lineup rate.
Contrarian NFL DFS Tournament Picks With Upside
Sam LaPorta ($4,800 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel)
LaPorta will be on the other side of Kraft in the Lions-Packers showdown. There is expected to be plenty of fantasy value on both sides, but the Lions are listed as three-point home favorites. It gives them the top implied team total on the slate.
LaPorta hasn’t exactly been a focal point of the Lions’ offense this season (18% target share), but he is a frequent option around the goal line. He has a 31% end zone share, which has resulted in three touchdowns through five games. He currently ranks fifth at the position in fantasy points per game.
The Packers are a tough matchup for tight ends, but LaPorta still has some appeal at his midrange salary. He’s fourth at the position in projected DraftKings Plus/Minus, and he’s No. 3 in SimLabs optimal lineup rate.
Isaiah Likely ($5,300 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel)
It is perhaps a bit disrespectful to Likely to call McBride and Bowers the “Big Two” at tight end. So far this season, Likely has been just as good as those guys. He trails only Bowers in terms of fantasy points per game, and no TE has scored more fantasy points overall. His 28% target share ranks second at the position, and he’s finished as the top scorer at TE in three of his six games. That’s pretty damn elite, even if Likely wasn’t expected to be in that territory at the start of the year.
Likely’s price tag has yet to reflect his increased production. He’s more than -$2,000 cheaper than Bowers and McBride on DraftKings, and he’s at least -$1,700 cheaper than both players on FanDuel.
That makes him an interesting tournament option in a tough matchup vs. the Texans. Houston has a very good defense, but they haven’t been quite as dominant as they were last year.
Harold Fannin ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel)
The Browns’ offense has ranged from mediocre to bad for most of the year, but they’re in a quality spot this week vs. the Titans. Tennessee has been one of the worst defensive teams in football this season, including a No. 27 ranking in EPA per pass.
Fannin has been pretty quiet for most of the season, but he did have a TE3 finish back in Week 3. He also displayed plenty of promise as a rookie. There’s ultimately no denying his talent, even if his situation isn’t ideal.
Fannin has the second-largest discrepancy between optimal lineup rate and projected ownership on DraftKings, trailing only Kittle.
Pictured: George Kittle
Photo Credit: Imagn
