Our Lineup Optimizer is an incredibly powerful tool inside our Player Models, particularly when creating a large number of lineups. However, it’s just that — a tool. We still have to make decisions. Otherwise, everyone would have the same 150 lineups in each contest.
This is intended more as a teaching piece than a step-by-step guide. These rules are suggestions that can show you how to translate your read on these games into lineups.
Each week I’ll go over my favorite DFS angle for the given week and go over some of our Lineup Optimizer settings that are worth considering.
Now, let’s get to it!
My Favorite Week 10 NFL DFS Angle
This is a really tough week overall at the running back position, with holes that can be poked in almost every top-end running back this week. Saquon Barkley has the cleanest spot overall in terms of matchup, but he also leads the slate in price. Dameon Pierce looks likely to lead the slate in ownership despite facing the Giants, who have objectively been great at stopping opposing running backs this year.
Two guys that have my eye are Jonathan Taylor and Jeff Wilson. Taylor entered the year as RB1 but has had his season derailed by injury. I am waiting to hear more reports regarding any possible playing time concerns in his return this week, but first-time head coach Jeff Saturday might be wise to lean on his stud running back on Sunday.
Jeff Wilson is a more thin play, but he does provide good leverage off the Dolphins’ passing game and immediately stepped into a 50% snap share his very first week in town. The Dolphins are home favorites against a terrible Browns rush defense, which gives me hope for a big game if Wilson gets up to around 65% of snaps this week after outplaying Raheem Mostert in his debut.
Lineup Optimizer Rules to Consider
Below are the rules to consider for Sunday. For more context on optimizer rules or the Showdown format in general, check out my NFL Showdown Primer.
Minimum salary cap: 99.6%. Leaving more than this causes you to lose significant win equity.
Flex positions: WR, RB.
Optimal tournament construction includes stacking your quarterback with at least one, but usually two, pass-catcher(s) from the same team and at least one pass-catcher from the opposing team.
A mobile quarterback with a big rushing game is more likely to only need one teammate paired. These settings can be accomplished through rules in the “Position” tab or through the Player Correlations tab for more control.
For the second week in a row, I think Justin Fields is the only quarterback I will be actively looking to single stack with, given his cheap price and rushing ability.
You want to avoid pairings like Davante Adams with Josh Jacobs in GPPs to assure your ceiling isn’t capped. The Player Groups tab gives you more control over the process, but the Position tab can be used to completely group out running back paired with a wide receiver from the same team.
Winning GPP lineups typically use 2-3 players that are less than 10% owned. The Lineup Optimizer allows you to accomplish this quickly.