Specifically, I will be focusing on players’ ownership projections and Leverage Scores within our FantasyLabs Models to identify these contrarian targets. Leverage Scores are a combination of a player’s projected ceiling and ownership. In other words, a high ceiling combined with a low ownership projection means a high leverage score.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups for single-entry or 3-entry max tournaments and our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments. Our optimizer allows you to create up to 300 lineups with the click of a button.
The Lineup Optimizer has endless customization opportunities.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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NFL DFS High-Leverage Stack
Justin Fields ($6,900) + DJ Moore ($5,600)
While the Lions are getting plenty of attention this week – Amon Ra St. Brown is expected to be one of the top three most owned players on the slate according to the BLITZ projections – everyone is sleeping on their opponent in the Bears. Both Fields and Moore are slated to be less than 5% owned on DraftKings via the BLITZ projections, making this stack an elite way to gain leverage in GPPs.
This dome matchup in Detroit carries the second-highest total on the slate (48 points), and this is a much better spot for the Bears’ passing game than most believe. After a strong start to their season, the Lions’ defense has crumbled recently, allowing the second most yards per pass over the last three weeks (8.8). Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert both had massive fantasy performances against Detroit during this stretch, and Fields should continue this trend with some big numbers in his return this Sunday.
Fields (thumb) has missed the last four games but has been a full participant in practice this week and will start vs. the Lions. Before getting hurt early in his Week 6 matchup vs. the Vikings, Fields was averaging 7.5 yards per attempt in his first five starts of the year while throwing for 11 touchdowns. The mobile quarterback was also rushing the ball eight times a game during this span. Fields had topped 30 DraftKings points in back-to-back starts before going down in Week 6, and for the season, he ranks fifth in DraftKings points per dropback (0.58). To put the icing on the cake, Fields has been exceptional in totals of at least 45 points over the last two seasons, amassing 28.5 DraftKings PPG, via the Trends Tool.
Moore has struggled sans Fields but should be revitalized with his quarterback returning this weekend. In the five full starts Fields has made this season, Moore has led the Bears with a 24% target share, including 15 targets over 20 yards, which ranked third in the NFL through Weeks 1-5. During this time, the wideout ranked fifth at his position in DraftKings PPG (23.8) and third in DraftKings points per touch (4.41).
Both Fields and Moore are underpriced for their ceilings, and this pairing is a stack you need to have some exposure to in large tournaments.
NFL DFS Running Back Leverage Pick
Brian Robinson Jr. ($5,800)
Not only is Robinson Jr. one of the best running back values on the board, but he is also expected to be way overlooked, with the BLITZ projections slating him to be only around 5% owned on DraftKings. Robinson Jr. is in a superb spot this Sunday vs. the lowly Giants. New York is the 10th worst-graded defense on PFF, and they are allowing the third most yards per rush (4.6). Furthermore, the Giants are yielding the second-most rush yards (1,117) and second-most rushing touchdowns (11) to running backs.
Washington presents a healthy implied team total of 23.25 points, and as nine-point home favorites over New York, the Commanders should rely on their running game and feed Robinson the ball. The second-year back has been Washington’s clear No.1 rusher this season, with him handling 73.3% of the running back carries, including 18 red zone attempts in 10 games.
Robinson Jr. should approach 20 touches in this ideal setting and has a strong chance to find the end zone. On the DraftKings Sportsbook, the back is a -110 favorite to score a touchdown this Sunday, which are the best odds of any player in this contest.
The Commanders handing this 2-8 Giants club their fourth straight loss this Sunday is an inevitable outcome and when Washington has come out victorious this season, Robinson Jr. has been great, contributing 20.6 DraftKings PPG.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick
Cooper Kupp ($8,100)
After a few quiet performances, Kupp should get back on track this Sunday, with Matthew Stafford (thumb) returning. In the five games Kupp has played with Stafford starting at quarterback, Kupp has led the Rams in target share (33.3%), red zone targets (5), and targets greater than 20 yards (7).
The wideout is facing a solid Seahawks’ defense, but Kupp will be at home, and this NFC West matchup sports the third-highest total on the slate (46.5 points, via FantasyLabs Vegas page. The Rams rank 11th in pass rate this season and should be forced into a pass-heavy gameplan as one-point underdogs. Kupp owns a career average of 25 DraftKings PPG (five games) and has scored at least 22 DraftKings points in five of his last six divisional matchups.
At this season-low salary and with the BLITZ projections forecasting him for single-digit ownership on DraftKings, Kupp is an elite GPP spend this weekend.
NFL DFS Tight End Leverage Pick
Dalton Kincaid ($4,900)
The BLITZ projections are slating Kincaid to be only around 11% owned on DraftKings this week, which is far too low for this budding star. With Dawson Knox (wrist) on IR, Kincaid has thrived as the Bills’ featured tight end over the last three weeks, scoring 16.9 DraftKings PPG. To put in perspective how great this number is, if this was Kincaid’s average for the season, he would rank second among tight ends in DraftKings PPG. During this three-game stretch, the first-round draft choice by the Bills has tied Stefon Diggs for the most targets on the team (24). Overall, Kincaid has been targeted on 23% of his routes while running a route on 91% of his team’s dropbacks.
Kincaid has found the paydirt twice in these last three games, and this weekend, the 24-year-old meets a Jets’ defense that has given up the most touchdowns to tight ends this season (6). Kincaid brings huge upside in this spot and needs to be your most owned tight end for this slate at this reasonable salary, as we likely won’t see him this cheap again this season.
Note: player and ownership projections may change leading up to lock. Be sure to check out the Player Models for any changes.