The Defenses and Kickers Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s main NFL slate. For more of our weekly football content, visit our NFL homepage.
Per the Trends tool, so far this season defenses with a salary of at least $3,500 on DraftKings (37 teams) have averaged 9.73 points with a +1.59 Plus/Minus and 7.3 percent average ownership, while defenses with a salary of at least $4,800 on FanDuel (42 teams) have averaged 8.90 points with a +1.58 Plus/Minus and 6.1 percent average ownership. Nearly halfway through the season, paying up for defenses has been slightly more valuable on DraftKings. That said, defenses on FanDuel have continued to close both the PPG and Plus/Minus gaps recently.
The Big 2 Defenses
- Philadelphia ($3,800 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel)
- Cincinnati ($3,600 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel)
Let’s swim move.
Brotherly Love
The Philadelphia Eagles welcome San Francisco and their rookie quarterback C.J. Beathard to town as massive 13-point favorites with the 49ers implied to score the second-lowest point total (16.5) on the main slate. Philly’s point projection (12.1) and projected Plus/Minus (+3.79) both lead the slate by a healthy margin. The Eagles are expected to be the mega-chalk at defense this week: We currently have them projected at 17-20 percent ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Defenses with comparable salaries favored by 10-16 points have historically produced 10.08 points with a +1.41 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and 9.49 points with a +1.36 Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Per Football Outsiders, San Francisco’s offensive line has been below-average in pass protection, ranking 20th as a unit and allowing an 8.0 percent adjusted sack rate. The Eagles have accumulated 18 sacks (tied for ninth) and should be able to increase that total against the leaky offensive line of the 49ers. Philadelphia has allowed 32.5 percent of drives to end in an offensive score (tied for 11th) and have generated the seventh-highest turnover percentage (14.3 percent) on opposing offensive drives (Pro Football Reference). So far this season, the Eagles have produced a +1.14 Plus/Minus with 42.9 percent Consistency on DraftKings and a +1.29 Plus/Minus with 42.9 percent Consistency on FanDuel. They have scored more than eight points in only one game this season, but that could change in Week 8.
You Don’t Live in Cleveland, You Live in Cincinnati
For those of you too young to understand that headline, do yourself a favor and check out the great Sam Wyche going off on the mic mid-game. The Cincinnati Bengals are currently the No. 1 rated defense for both DraftKings and FanDuel in the Adam Levitan and Bales Models. The Bengals have the highest ceiling projection for both sites, and their 3.9 projected sacks are the most for DraftKings’ main slate. The Colts, who have allowed a league-worst 11.6 percent adjusted sack rate, have provided a fantasy feast for opposing defenses this season: They have allowed the most DraftKings PPG (13.15), including three games of 20 points or more, and the fourth-most PPG on FanDuel (12.0). Indianapolis quarterback Jacoby Brissett has been sacked 25 times at a rate of 11.1 percent (both NFL-highs). Meanwhile, the Bengals have registered 18 sacks (tied for ninth) with the sixth-best sack percentage (8.8 percent) in the league.
Cincinnati is currently favored by 10.5 points at home, and the Colts are implied to score a slate-low 15 points. In the very few instances since 2014 (10) in which an opposing team has been implied to score 15 points or less, the opposing defense has averaged 13.60 PPG with a +5.01 Plus/Minus on DraftKings and a +5.62 Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Bump and Run
Jam ’em at the line.
New Orleans Saints ($3,400 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel): The Saints catch a Chicago team allowing 11.29 DraftKings PPG (fourth-most) and 12.17 FanDuel PPG (third-most) at home as nine-point favorites. New Orleans has forced opposing offenses into a turnover on 15.4 percent of drives (fifth-most) and gets to face Mitch Trubisky, who has been sacked at a frighteningly-high rate of 15.4 percent in limited reps this season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($2,600 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel): Tampa has a 90 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings, where Carolina has allowed a robust 10.57 PPG and +4.28 Plus/Minus to opponents this season. The Panthers have the second-worst adjusted sack rate (10.0 percent) in the league, and the Bucs are currently projected for 2.3 sacks.
Pittsburgh Steelers (Not on DraftKings’ main slate, $4,400 FanDuel): Checking in with our highest projected sack total (4.2) of the week, Pittsburgh has had at least two sacks in every game this season; they’ve averaged 3.25 sacks per game in their last four games. As luck would have it, Detroit’s offensive line has surrendered the fourth-worst adjusted sack rate (9.5 percent) to opponents this season.
The One Big Kicker
Let’s put it through the uprights.
As the incomparable Eminem once said, “Guess who’s back, guess who’s back, guess who’s back.” No, it’s not Mr. Kotter; it’s Stephen Gostkowski ($5,200), who’s back atop the kicking salary spectrum this week. Gostkowski and the Patriots are favored by 7.5 points at home and implied to score 28 points against the Los Angeles Clippers Chargers. Gostkowski’s 12.3-point projection and +3.84 Plus/Minus both rank second on this slate. In general, kickers at home playing for teams implied to score 25-31 points have averaged 8.94 PPG with a +0.79 Plus/Minus. Gostkowski has performed better than that in these situations, producing 9.90 PPG and a +1.52 Plus/Minus with steady 71.4 percent Consistency in 21 games.
The Onside Kick
Get the hands team out there.
Jake Elliott ($4,800): His team is implied to score the most points on the slate (29.5), and he has our highest median projection (12.8). Elliott has yet to score less than 10 points in a game this season and has connected on a field goal of 50 yards or longer in four of six games. I study kickers every week — until FanDuel starts charging more than $5,000 for Jake, you should play him.
Randy Bullock ($4,600): Nobody allows more points to kickers than the Indianapolis Colts. Seriously, the Colts have allowed a league-high 12.5 PPG and +4.61 Plus/Minus to kickers this season. Bullock’s Bengals are implied to score the fifth-most points on the slate (25.5).
