The Week 10 NFL Dashboard
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Week 10: Running Backs
This is the ‘special’ election edition of the piece. By that, I mean that I’m going to try to make it shorter, basically out of necessity, as I was unable to do any work on this piece on Tuesday night because I instead was watching the TV for hours with people I didn’t know in an act of awkward, forced, and alcohol-fueled adult socialization.
Anyway, you’ve been warned. I’m going to try to make this shorter (which, frankly, would be good for all of us).
RB Pricing
As I highlighted in the RB Breakdown last week and several weeks before that, RB salaries are inflated on DraftKings and deflated on FanDuel (per our Bargain Rating metric).
You can still find some value on DK, but the RBs at the top of the salary scale tend to have the worst Bargain Ratings, so if you’re looking for discounted production on DK you’ll probably want to pay down. Or, phrased differently, if you pay up on DK, you’re not just getting an expensive RB. You’re getting an expensive RB priced at a premium. On DK, only one RB with a top-12 salary has a Bargain Rating higher than 10 percent. You’ll want to arbitrage where/when you can.
On FD, the relative value is everywhere. If you look at the FD Player Models, you’re basically swimming in green. If you like RBs — if they are crucial to your lineups and central to your strategies — it makes sense to get your exposure to some of the stud RBs on FD, where many of them have Bargain Ratings of at least 95 percent.
The Big Six
This week’s Big Six (in terms of pricing) is a formidable bunch. Per our Trends tool:
And that includes a number of games in which some of these guys weren’t even the lead backs on their teams.
Here they are:
• David Johnson: $8,400 DK (RB1), $9,400 FD (RB1)
• Ezekiel Elliott: $7,900 DK (RB2), $8,900 FD (RB2)
• Le’Veon Bell: $7,700 DK (RB3), $8,100 FD (RB4)
• Melvin Gordon: $7,100 DK (RB4), $8,300 FD (RB3)
• Devontae Booker: $7,800 DK (RB5/6), $7,800 FD (RB5/6)
• Jay Ajayi: $7,000 DK (RB5/6), $7,800 FD (RB5/6)
A few things about these guys:
- They are available within a fairly wide salary range. Johnson is $500 more expensive than Zeke, who in turn is at least $800 more expensive than at least the bottom half of the cohort RBs. These are the clear top RBs, but this week there are tiers within tiers.
- They are all workhorses who, at least mostly, seem likely to get the supermajority of RB action on their team. They’re valuable because of their high expected volume.
- They are all three-down workhorses with good pass-catching skills. Yes, even Ajayi. You don’t have a 50-535-4 receiving stat line in your final year of college if you suck as a pass-catching back. And by “you,” I guess that I could actually mean you, but I really mean “Ajayi.”
To quote Lord Tennyson: “Half a league onward.”
The Big Johnson
Johnson is easily the current RB1 in points per game (PPG) . . .
. . . and he’s priced as the RB1. If you want him, you’ll have to pay fair value — although he still might be too cheap. On this week’s NFL Daily Fantasy Flex podcast, Johnson was (I think) the first player mentioned as a #ChalkLock for Week 10. He’s highly desirable. FantasyLabs Co-founder Peter Jennings (CSURAM88) couldn’t get enough ‘skill game prop’ action on him.
The Cardinals are slate-high 13.5-point home favorites with a slate-high implied Vegas total of 30.75 points, and they’re playing against the 49ers, who are allowing a league-high 32.5 PPG to opponents. The 49ers have a classic RB-friendly funnel defense in that they are 19th against the pass in Football Outsiders’ Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) but 32nd against the rush. Johnson might have so much excess production in this game that he’ll decide to give some of it to backup RB Andre Ellington ($3,500 DK, $4,500 FD), like so:
In Week 5, Johnson destroyed this same 49ers team (in San Francisco) with 27 carries and three receptions for 185 yards, two touchdowns, and 36.5 DK and 32.0 FD points — and now (per our Matchups tool) the 49ers defensive line is at less than full strength.
Unsurprisingly, the 49ers are allowing NFL-high marks of 36.1 DK and 31.4 FD PPG to RBs.
Per Bryan Mears’ Market Share Report, Johnson has an absurd 77.31 percent market share of the Cardinals’ carries, 21.79 percent of its targets, and 66 percent of its opportunities (10 carries) within the 10-yard line over the past four games. One way or another, he’s likely to get his production.
A freak athlete — at 224 lbs., Johnson (per Player Profiler) has an elite 95th percentile SPARQ-x score — Johnson has scored 21 TDs across his 24 career games even though he has started only 13 of them.
If Rob Gronkowski were a RB who were used as if he were the best player on his team, he’d be Johnson.
We are expecting him to be exquisitely chalky. Right now, he has slate-high FantasyLabs ownership projections of 31-40 percent — and our ownership projections have been amazingly accurate this year.
He’s so chalky that he’s nicknamed his penis “The Big Chalkson.” It’s possible. You probably can’t disprove that claim.
If you don’t mind paying up for a RB, Johnson’s your guy. This week, the best RB in the NFL has the best matchup in the slate. It’s like Romeo finally meeting Juliet. What could go wrong?
Johnson is a top-three RB in Pro Trends with eight on DK and 15 on FD, and he’s the highest-rated DK and FD RB in the Levitan and Sports Geek Player Models.
By the way, I know that my Johnson is probably three times longer than it needs to be . . .
. . . Did I just forget to put the word “blurb” in that last sentence?
Are You a Geek for Zeke?
One week after showing Ohio what it’s missing, Zeke is headed to Pittsburgh to partake in a battle of RBs: Zeke vs. Le’Veon. If I were Davis Mattek, I’d say something like, “That sh*t’s gonna be lit.”
The Cowboys rookie leads the NFL with 891 yards rushing. The two backs who immediately trail him — DeMarco Murray and MG3 — have both played in nine games. Zeke has played in only eight.
I still think that it doesn’t make sense to draft a RB with a top-five pick — Derrick Henry, available with a second-round pick, probably could’ve been a stud on the Cowboys — but that’s separate from whether Zeke’s a great DFS asset now that the Cowboys have him.
As I said last week, Zeke is basically Helen of Troy. He’s hot, but that doesn’t mean that the Cowboys should’ve risked everything on him Trojan-style. And, yet, now that they have him — since they have him — since they’ve irresponsibly claimed him as their own — they might as well get as much enjoyment out of him as possible.
With 111.4 rushing yards per game (YPG), he’s easily the only RB in the league with a mark above 100. And he’s proven himself to be a competent receiver, with a catch rate of 84.2 percent. As a point of comparison: DeMarco’s is 81.4 percent, and Le’Veon’s is 78.3.
The Cowboys are 2.5-point road underdogs implied to score 24 points against the Steelers, who are allowing 29.4 DK and 25.0 FD PPG to RBs. He’s yet to see fewer than 19 opportunities in any game this season.
On the season Zeke is getting a healthy 24.5 opportunities per game, and over the last four games he has six carries inside the 10-yard line:
The Cowboys are the only team in the league to run more often than they pass, and Zeke is doing a lot with his opportunities, ranking second in the league in evaded tackles and runs of at least 15 yards (per Player Profiler).
Zeke leads DK with nine Pro Trends and is second on FD with 13. At 21-25 and 17-20 percent on DK and FD, Zeke has the slate’s second-highest FantasyLabs ownership projections.
His Le’Veownership Will Be High
Relative to the other RBs in the slate, Bell has slipped a little bit, but he’s still having a great season:
Over the last four games, Bell has been a usage monster, with 81.25 and 23.12 percent of the Steelers’ carries and targets. He has almost as many targets as wide receiver Antonio Brown (23.70 percent) over the last month. Per Player Profiler, Bell’s 92.1 percent Opportunity Share is first in the NFL.
If there are two (minor) issues with Le’Veon, it’s these:
- Le’Veon doesn’t get touches near the goal line.
- The Steelers are playing against the Cowboys.
It’s true that Le’Veon doesn’t get the volume of goal-line opportunities that other workhorse backs get. This year he’s gotten only two opportunities inside the 10-yard line. Some workhorse RBs get that many opportunities per game. At the same time, Le’Veon is a top-six starting RB in PPG without scoring a TD yet.
For his first three years, Bell averaged one TD for every 189.4 scrimmage yards. Through five games, he has 659 yards. At some point, Bell is going to experience some positive (and probably massive) TD reversion.
As far as Bell playing against the Cowboys, who are eighth in rush DVOA and play at one of the slowest paces in the league, Bell should be fine. The Steelers are 2.5-point home favorites implied to score 26.5 points. Bell has done well over the past three years as a home favorite:
Also, over the last three years, Bell has (albeit in a small sample) done well against run defenses ranked comparably. Per RotoViz:
Bell is chalky, but he makes for an intriguing pivot play down from Johnson and Zeke, given his 17-20 percent ownership projections.
Bell is the highest-rated RB in the CSURAM88 Model on FD, where he has a 99 percent Bargain Rating.
Eating Too Much Can Spoil Your Appetite
Even if you (read: I) think that MG3 is a near-talentless hack who feasts on the soft carbs of massive volume, you still have to appreciate him for what he is:
MG3 leads the NFL with 193 rush attempts and 11 TDs from scrimmage. He has 38 targets over nine games. Over the last four games, he’s had 14 opportunities inside the 10-yard line as well as a league-high 86.67 percent of his team’s rushes and 13.25 percent of its targets.
The Chargers are 3.5-point home favorites implied to score 26 points against the Dolphins, who are 16th in rush DVOA. As a home favorite this year, MG3 has balled out:
Like Le’Veon, MG3 has 17-20 percent projected ownership and is a potential pivot play down from Johnson and Zeke.
He has scored a TD this year against every team he’s played except for the Broncos. He also leads the league in TDs rushing inside the 10- and five-yard lines (nine and eight).
He’s the f*cking Catalina Wine Mixer.
Danger, Will Robinson, Danger!
Over the last three weeks, Booker hasn’t been horrible as the Broncos lead RB:
At the same time, he plays at a replaceable position, and last week backup RB Kapri Bibbs ($4,000 DK, $4,600 FD) turned nine snaps into three touches, 80 scrimmage yards, and a touchdown. In the NFL, they might call that a breakout. In reality, everyone else calls that an outlier.
Last week, Booker sucked. He had only 22 yards on 10 carries and caught only one of his three targets for eight yards — but he was clearly the lead back, seeing the field on 46 (82 percent) of the team’s offensive snaps.
There are reports that Bibbs could play ahead of Booker this week — or at least substantially steal some of the opportunities that previously would’ve gone to him. Unless we receive more clarity on this situation — follow the FantasyLabs News feed for updates — Booker is a dangerous option for cash games.
But you absolutely must have some exposure to him (and probably Bibbs) in guaranteed prize pools, because the Broncos are playing at the Coors Field of daily fantasy football.
In 2013, the Saints allowed only 19.0 PPG to opponents — the fourth-lowest mark in the league. In 2014, they allowed 26.5 PPG — ‘good’ for 28th. Last year, they were dead last (29.8 PPG), and this year they’re 30th (29.8 PPG). In this period of notable defensive sh*ttiness, the Saints have allowed opposing teams to do what is almost unthinkable: Score more points on the road than at home. When teams play at the Superdome . . .
. . . they get their freak on.
But who am I kidding? Anytime, anywhere, to anyone, the Saints defense is happy to give it up. The Saints are 25th in rush DVOA and 32nd in pass DVOA against RBs. They’re allowing a league-high 1.75 TDs per game to RBs. They’re also allowing 31.4 DK and 27.8 FD PPG to RBs — the second-highest marks in the NFL.
The Broncos are implied to score only 23 points as 2.5-point underdogs. Guess what? When the Seahawks scored only 20 points at the Superdome in Week 8, Christine Michael still got a TD, and C.J. Prosise still had over 100 scrimmage yards.
Here be upside.
Booker has five to eight percent projected ownership; Bibbs, two to four percent. Last week, the Saints allowed career journeyman DuJuan Harris to turn 10 carries and five receptions into 142 yards, a TD, and 24.2 DK and 20.7 FD points.
At least a modicum of exposure to Booker and/or Bibbs is warranted.
This Is How I Feel About Ajayi
Really . . .
. . . that is exactly how I feel about Ajayi.
He’s like that Hansel:
The Dolphins are 3.5-point road underdogs implied to score only 22.5 points against the Chargers. Meh. Those are just numbers. Ajayi right now is the f*cking boss hoss of the universe and is officially the second-coolest Jay in the sports industry.
Ajayi has gotten double-digit opportunities in only his last four games played. How has he done?
To quote Austin Powers . . .
Over the last four games, Ajayi has 72.22 and 7.69 percent of the Dolphins’ carries and targets as well as team-high marks of nine carries and one target inside the 10-yard line. Yes, over the last four games, Ajayi has been targeted near the goal line as many times as WR Jarvis Landry has. As I mentioned at the top, Ajayi isn’t a bad receiver. He has a 78.6 percent catch rate on the year.
Ever since Arian Foster suffered an injury in Week 2, Ajayi has on average been a beast:
He’s the cheapest back of the cohort, and (not counting the uncertain Booker) he’s projected to have the lowest ownership of the Big Six at 17-20 and 13-16 percent on DK and FD.
That’s pretty ideal.
And it doesn’t hurt that the Chargers are 19th in rush DVOA and allowing 30.5 DK and 26.0 FD PPG to RBs — the third- and fourth-highest marks in the slate.
Up the Gut
Three yards and a cloud of dust.
Todd Gurley ($5,300 DK, $7,000 FD): In the game with the slate’s lowest total, the Rams are two-point road underdogs implied to score 19 points against the Jets, who are second in rush DVOA and 30th in pass DVOA:
Gurley will be involved, given his 72.73 and 13.04 percent market share of the Rams’ rushes and targets over the last four games, but his situation is less than ideal.
At the same time, he’s a guy who’s averaging 22.25 opportunities per game and projected to be owned at two to four percent. He deserves to be sprinkled in some GPP lineups.
Gurley (thigh) is officially questionable for Week 10. He’s likely to play, but the thigh issue isn’t doing him any favors.
LeGarrette Blount ($4,900 DK, $6,400 FD): #Contrarianism, can you dig?
Blount leads the NFL with nine rushing TDs and has been basically just as good with quarterback Tom Brady as he was without him:
All it takes is a couple of goal-line carries for Blount to be a worthwhile investment at two to four percent projected ownership, and he’s second only to MG3 with 13 opportunities inside the 10-yard line over the last four games.
James White ($4,500 DK, $5,400 FD): Just in case the Pats abandon the running game against the Seahawks . . .
. . . he should be considered in stacks with Brady.
Terrance West ($5,700 DK, $6,500 FD): He’s not a sexy player, but he has 66.28 percent of the Ravens’ carries and six goal-line opportunities over the last four games, and the Ravens are eight-point home favorites implied to score 26.5 points against the Browns, who defensively are 29th in rush DVOA and allowing 28.8 DK and 26.6 FD PPG to RBs.
Also, Kenneth Dixon ($3,900 DK, $4,600 FD) had nine carries and two targets last game. Two games from now, he could be Ajayi 2.0.
Of course, they do play on Thursday night, so . . .
Robert Kelley ($3,600 DK , $5,300 FD): Have you ever heard of a value trap? I mean, there’s hope. Jordan Howard took it to the Vikings in Week 8.
Speaking of which . . .
Jordan Howard ($6,000 DK, $6,900 FD): Unbowed, unbent, unbroken, Howard is still the rushing king of the NFC North. The Buccaneers are allowing 26.5 DK and 24.2 FD PPG to RBs. Ever since he first got double-digit opportunities in a game . . .
. . . he’s been more than viable.
Spencer Ware ($6,700 DK, $7,300 FD): Ware has cleared the NFL’s concussion protocol and is expected to play this week. In his six full games . . .
. . . Ware has been a RB1.
The Panthers are fourth in rush DVOA and 23rd in pass DVOA, so there’s a chance that Ware could get funneled out of the game. At the same time, what are the Chiefs going to do: Let QB Alex Smith throw the ball?
Doug Martin ($5,800 DK, $6,500 FD) and Peyton Barber ($3,900 DK, $5,700 FD): The Buccaneers are implied to score 22.75 points at home in a pick’em with the Bears, who are 23rd in rush DVOA. One of these guys is highly likely to get the majority of the RB touches.
Be sure to monitor Martin’s situation. He’s currently questionable and expected to be a game-time decision. He’s someone to avoid if there are indications that he could be limited.
James Starks ($4,200 DK, $5,300 FD), Ty Montgomery ($6,500 DK WR, $6,200 FD RB), and Don Jackson ($3,000 DK, $5,200 FD): Starks might (not) be back in Week 10, Montgomery might (not) be limited either physically (by his sickle cell trait) or strategically (by the coaching staff, which could use him only in a passing-down role), and Jackson might (not) get more touches if Starks can’t play or Montgomery is limited. Monitor this situation. We might (not) get some clarity.
DeMarco Murray ($6,900 DK, $7,400 FD): On the one hand foot, the Murracle has a toe injury that is limiting his productivity and upside. On the other, that injury has made his price and ownership projection drop — but he’s still averaging 19.3 carries and 4.8 targets for 114.8 yards and one TD per game. Over the last four games, he has 10 goal-line opportunities.
GPP exposure is warranted, even with a tough matchup against the Packers. Also, Murray finished the week not on the Titans injury report. The significance of his injury has perhaps been exaggerated.
Devonta Freeman ($6,800 DK, $7,000 FD): Tevin Coleman (hamstring) is officially out, leaving Devonta with the vast majority of the Falcons’ backfield opportunities. Devonta has been somewhat inconsistent this year because of Coleman’s emergence, but he’s still pacing for almost 1,500 scrimmage yards as the lead RB on the highest-scoring team in the league.
And even when Coleman has been active . . .
. . . Devonta has gotten his.
In theory his matchup is tough, but he should be able to get production against an Eagles funnel defense that is first in pass DVOA but 11th in rush DVOA and 25th in pass DVOA against RBs.
The Super Models
This week, we have two runners (besides Johnson and Bell) at the top of some of our Pro Models:
• Darren Sproles: $4,300 DK, $5,100 FD
• Rashad Jennings: $3,600 DK, $5,600 FD
Get on your bikes and ride!
“Even The Smallest Person Can Change the Course of the Future”
By NFL standards, Sproles is a hobbit, but he’s the unlikely creature whom Eagles head coach Doug Pederson has chosen to carry the Ring. In his six games this year with at least eight opportunities, Sproles has been productive:
Now, even if you don’t think that Sproles should be the lead back, consider this: He’s unquestionably due for some positive TD reversion. Up to this season, across his career he’s averaged one TD for every 146.3 yards — and that’s not counting his nine TDs as a return man. This year, he has only one scrimmage TD on 59 rush attempts, 37 targets, and 526 yards.
If Sproles continues to get his touches and yards, the TDs should come.
And it certainly doesn’t hurt that this week he’s playing at home against the Falcons, who are allowing 28.8 PPG to opposing teams and 27.8 DK and 23.8 FD PPG to RBs.
He’s currently the highest-rated FD RB in the Bales Model.
The WOAT
Jennings is the f*cking WOAT, but he’s so cheap on DK, where he’s the highest-rated RB in the Bales and CSURAM88 Models.
Why does he rank so highly in those models?
He has an 82 percent DK Bargain Rating, a +5.22 Projected Plus/Minus, and a favorable Vegas situation. The Giants are 2.5-point home favorites implied to score 24.75 points against the Bengals.
On the season, Jennings is averaging 12.8 rushing attempts and 2.8 targets per game. He’s yet to have fewer than 13 opportunities in any game played. It’s hard to find that kind of volume for only $3,600 DK — especially if you’re worried that the Vikings defense is going to shut down Kelley.
Unlike the Vikings, the Bengals aren’t stout against the run, ranking 22nd in rush DVOA and allowing 26.2 DK and 23.0 FD PPG to RBs.
You’re hoping for a TD — but at least the Bengals are giving up a TD per game to the position.
Can we be done?
The Coda
Mark Ingram ($5,400 DK, $6,300 FD) and Tim Hightower ($4,600 DK, $6,200 FD) are playing at home against a Broncos funnel defense that is second in pass DVOA and 20th in rush DVOA. You know what to do.
Positional Breakdowns & Tools
Be sure to read the other Week 10 positional breakdowns:
• Quarterbacks
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends
Also, visit our suite of Tools to research all of the slate’s RBs for yourself, and peruse all of the slate’s tournaments in our Contest Guide.
Good luck this week!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
