Monday night features a small four-game slate, but this article has three player props worth targeting. A lot of the top defenses in the league will be on display tonight, so don’t expect a flurry of points being scored. We consider that as we dive into props featuring Joel Embiid, Jayson Tatum, and Paolo Banchero.
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NBA Player Prop Picks
Joel Embiid Under 32.5 Points
Taking an under on the league’s highest scorer is a little risky, but the matchup against the Heat has been one that Joel Embiid historically struggles with. Embiid is having an incredible season, averaging a league- and career-high 33.1 points per game while shooting 53.1% from the field. However, reaching 33 points is a massive ask for any player on any night, regardless of the matchup. Embiid has scored 33 or more points in only four of his last 11 games.
The Heat, and specifically Bam Adebayo, are elite at defending the paint. They have allowed a league-best 45 points per game in the paint this season. In 10 regular season games against Adebayo, Embiid has averaged just 22.9 points per game while shooting 46.8% from the field. He has eclipsed 33 or more points in two of those 10 games. This game also features by far the lowest total on the slate at 217 points, which doesn’t leave much breathing room for Embiid.
Jayson Tatum Over 4.5 Assists
Celtics star Jayson Tatum continues to elevate his production every season. In his sixth year, Tatum is now averaging career-highs in points, rebounds, and assists as the Celtics hold the best record in the league. Jaylen Brown remains out, which increases Tatum’s usage rate from 32.5% to 35.7%. His assist numbers also go up as Tatum has captured five or more assists in five of his last seven games without Brown in the lineup. In a larger sample size, Tatum has had five or more assists in 12 of his previous 17 games, with four assists in four of his five misses.
The Knicks have come to life with the addition of Josh Hart, but the Celtics are still trying to hold off the Bucks for the top seed in the Eastern Conference. In his last four games playing at Madison Square Garden, Tatum has averaged 28 points and 6.3 assists per game. Tatum is also second behind Marcus Smart this season, averaging 8.5 potential assists per game. Playing without Brown, Tatum will have plenty of opportunities to reach the over on his assist prop.
Paolo Banchero Under 19.5 Points
Another under that looks intriguing on this slate is with likely rookie of the year Paolo Banchero. He burst on the scene immediately and still leads the Magic with 19.7 points per game. However, over the past month or so, Banchero’s scoring has stabilized as he has failed to score 20 or more points in eight of his 10 games. During that time, he is averaging only 15.4 points per game while shooting a meager 35.3% from the field.
As opponents continue to catch on to his playing style, the Pelicans will deploy their ninth-ranked Defensive Rating onto the fantastic rookie. Even with Zion Williamson out, Herb Jones will make Banchero’s life awfully difficult in this matchup. Outside of Jonathan Isaac, who remains out, the Magic have a lot of players who can fill up the scoreboard if Banchero continues to struggle. The tough matchup and disappointing month of February lead us to this under.
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