Sunday features a five-game slate starting at 6 p.m. ET on DraftKings and a six-game slate starting at 5 p.m. ET on FanDuel
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
After playing 43 minutes last night, Luka Doncic is the stud point-guard option yet again Sunday. He leads the league in both scoring and fantasy points per game. Even in a relatively down game by Doncic’s standards, he still nearly had a triple-double with 24 points, nine assists, and seven rebounds. Even though value may be tough to come by on this slate, getting exposure to Doncic always feels like a necessity given his incredible upside.
This is a very tough spot for Doncic, as the Bucks lead the league in defensive rating (105.9), entering Sunday’s games. Despite the incredible start for Doncic, the Mavericks have a 9-9 record and have lost three-straight games while only scoring 103 points per game during that time. They have the lowest implied total on the slate at 104.75 points, but they also play at the slowest pace in the league. Even playing slow, Doncic’s production is extremely high this season.
The point guard with the highest projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings is Malcolm Brogdon. Jayson Tatum‘s absence Sunday will open the door for several Celtics value plays, but Brogdon is rating out as the best one. He has yet to start a game this season, but with Tatum out for the first time all season, that may change. Brogdon is only projected to play 23 minutes, but that seems on the lighter end, and he is still grading out as a superb value.
The Celtics are still seven-point home favorites without Tatum, as they lead the league with a 15-4 record and have won 11 of their last 12 games. Brogdon has been mediocre in his first season with the Celtics, averaging 13.3 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game. However, in his lone game against the Wizards, Brogdon had 23 points off the bench in only 23 minutes of action. He is too cheap, especially if he draws the start.
Ja Morant doesn’t have quite the ceiling of Doncic, but he is also averaging a career-high in points with 28.6 per game this season. His peripherals are also very high at 7.3 assists and 6.1 rebounds per game. Morant has a double-double in three of his last five games. Using our On/Off Tool, when Desmond Bane is off the floor, Morant has a team-high +3.8 DraftKings Plus/Minus and a +2.6% usage rate. When fading Doncic, Morant is the next best pay-up point guard.
Trae Young and Dejounte Murray are only FanDuel-eligible Sunday due to their 5 p.m. ET tip-off time, but both are worthy options playing against the Heat without Jimmy Butler on defense. Young leads the Hawks in both points and assists this season, while Murray leads the league with two steals per game. Murray may set up a little better for FanDuel scoring, but both guards are great options on the FanDuel six-game slate as five-point home favorites.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Donovan Mitchell has made quite a statement in his first 17 games in a Cavaliers uniform. He is averaging a career-high 30 points per game while shooting an absurd 50.1% from the field and 42.5% from behind the arc. Even though scoring is what he does best, Mitchell is also averaging a career-high 5.4 assists and 4.1 rebounds per game. Mitchell’s peripherals take a hit playing alongside Darius Garland, but he still is averaging a 31.3% usage rate.
The Cavaliers have won four of their last five games and have a cupcake matchup against the Pistons on Sunday. The Cavaliers are seven-point road favorites despite losing their last five road games, as the Pistons have the worst record in the league at 5-16. Not only that, but they rank 29th in defensive rating and allow 117.4 points per game. Mitchell has also been dialed in from long distance this season, averaging four 3-pointers made per game. Over the last three games, Mitchell has made five per game. There’s so much to like about Mitchell even with Garland playing.
Cam Reddish is questionable to play Sunday after missing three-straight games with a groin injury. If he plays, Reddish is one of the best values on the slate at $4,000 on DraftKings and $4,100 on FanDuel. Finally getting the playing time he deserves, Reddish played well over 30 minutes for three-straight games before his injury. Reddish had scored double-digit points in four-straight games, as he finally caught his groove.
Reddish has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel for Sunday’s slate. Reddish has started in half of the games in his first full season with the Knicks, as his playing time has skyrocketed recently. In his last four games played, Reddish is averaging 16.5 points per game while shooting 53.5% from the field. In those games, Reddish also accumulated nine steals. A great salary saver if he plays.
With Jayson Tatum ruled out, many will flock to Jaylen Brown on Sunday, and rightfully so. He is projected to be one of the highest-owned players on both DraftKings and FanDuel, as his usage rate climbs +6.8% with Tatum off the floor this season. Brown has a lot of similarities to Mitchell, as he is averaging a career-high in points and rebounds while shooting over 50% from the field. Last season in five games without Tatum, Brown averaged a double-double with 30.4 points and 10 rebounds per game. The Wizards have been better defensively, but Brown’s usage rate Sunday will make him tough to fade.
Bradley Beal is another great option at shooting guard in this game against the Celtics. It is rare to see so many shooting guards in play, especially on a smaller slate. Beal has only played in 13 games this season, but he is yet another shooting guard who is shooting over 50% for the first time in his career. Beal is a part of the 50-40-90 club, as he is shooting 40.3% from behind the arc and 90% from the charity stripe. Choose your shooting guard wisely Sunday.
NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Not having Tatum on this slate makes the small forward position look really weak. However, with Joel Embiid, James Harden, and Tyrese Maxey out Sunday, Tobias Harris is the clear-cut stud small forward option. Over the last three games without those top three players, Harris has averaged 22 points per game while attempting 20 or more field goals in each game. During that time, he has a 29.5% usage rate while averaging 35.3 DraftKings points per game.
Playing against the Magic who rank 26th in defensive rating this season, Harris should be able to get many opportunities at great looks on offense. He is only shooting 3-for-19 from behind the arc over his last three games, so there is room for even more upside. The Magic are allowing 38.3 3-point attempts per game, which ranks as the second-most in the league. His salary has risen, but this could be a huge game for Harris if his shot is falling.
Continuing with the weak small forward position, Wizards forward Deni Avdija has recorded a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in seven of his last eight games. During that tim,e Avdija is averaging 11.6 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 3.0 assists per game. Avdija fills up the stat sheet in a variety of ways, as he is averaging career highs in both rebounds and assists this season. Prioritize Avdija on FanDuel, where he is $4,400 with a Bargain Rating of 87%.
Avdija has a double-double in two of his last three games while scoring well over 30 DraftKings points in each of those games. It is hard to find that kind of value and upside on this slate. Avdija has at least 10 field-goal attempts in five of his last eight games, as his usage rate is starting to creep up. The Wizards are one of the least intriguing teams on the slate, but getting exposure to the cheap Avdija seems like a strong play.
Bojan Bogdanovic is questionable to play with knee and ankle soreness, so we’ll need to monitor our news dashboard the closer we get to lock on his status. If Bogdanovic is able to play, he makes for a solid tournament option given how well he has played in his first season with the Pistons. He is averaging a career-high 20.6 points per game while shooting 49.5% from the field. If Bogdanovic can’t play, look to Saddiq Bey and Marvin Bagley for your Pistons exposure.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
It feels like Doncic and Giannis Antetokounmpo play on the same night all the time, and deciding between the two stars is one of our biggest decisions once again. This time they actually play against each other! After failing to score over 27 points for five-straight games, Giannis has bounced back with three-straight games of 36 or more points and 59.3 DraftKings points per game, while shooting 62% from the field during that time.
Giannis is averaging a career-high 31 points with 11.4 rebounds per game. Jrue Holiday is back in the lineup, but Khris Middleton remains out as Giannis leads the Bucks in points and rebounds for the seventh-straight season. Lock Giannis in for a double-double Sunday, as the Mavericks rank 29th in rebounding percentage this season. This may be a slow-paced game, but Giannis makes a very compelling case against Doncic simply by being much cheaper.
Al Horford has the highest projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel, where he also has dual power forward and center eligibility. Horford stuffed the stat sheet in four games without Tatum last season, averaging 9.5 points, 8.5 rebounds, 5.8 assists, and 2.3 blocks per game. His usage rate and production both increase quite a bit without Tatum on the floor. Like Avdija, prioritize Horford on FanDuel where he is $5,500 with an 89% Bargain Rating.
One of the biggest benefits with no Tatum is the playing time increase. In those four games with no Tatum, Horford played nearly 33 minutes per game. Our Tournament Model has him projected for 33.1 minutes Sunday, which makes him look incredible. Horford has started every game this season and also benefits with no Robert Williams. He is shooting 54.4% from the field, which is his best since the 2013-14 season. Horford looks awesome Sunday.
The Magic are one of the worst teams in the league, but Paolo Banchero at least looks like the real deal. After missing seven-straight games, Banchero returned to action on Friday night and played 36 minutes. It is safe to say he is good to play heavy minutes again Sunday, as he leads the team in points with 23.2 per game. In a repeat matchup at home against the 76ers, Banchero should be able to approve upon his 5-for-12 shooting performance that resulted in only 19 points. Even with a low 106.25 implied team total, Banchero is worth getting exposure to in tournaments.
NBA DFS Center Picks
In his first full season with the Wizards, Kristaps Porzingis is averaging 20.3 points and 8.6 rebounds per game. His usage rate is down a little bit from last year now that Beal is healthy, but Porzingis still has major upside. With Robert Williams still out for the Celtics, their defense isn’t nearly as good. Boston ranks 16th in defensive rating and 24th in rebounding percentage through 19 games this season, paving the way for a Porzingis double-double.
In his lone game against the Celtics this season, Porzingis had 17 points and 13 rebounds while shooting 50% from the field. The Wizards got beat by 18 points on the road, and Porzingis did his damage while only playing 28 total minutes. This game should be more competitive with Tatum out, giving Porzingis hopefully more minutes and another great chance at a double-double. He is the best center to target on this slate.
Another 76ers player who will benefit due to all of the stars being out is backup center Montrezl Harrell. In back-to-back games, Harrell has averaged 15 points and 7.5 rebounds per game while shooting 60% from the field. Harrell has also averaged over 25 DraftKings points in those two games while playing nearly 30 minutes in his last game. He is one of the best value plays on the slate right now at only $4,600 on DraftKings and $4,900 on FanDuel.
The Magic rank 18th in points allowed in the paint this season, but they are a great rebounding team. The lack of value on this slate is quite obvious, but Harrell is one of the better options. He is center-only eligible on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but most of the star power on this slate is coming at the guard and forward positions. Harrell is a great salary saver in lineup builds that are trying to fit in one of Giannis or Doncic on Sunday.
A FanDuel-only pick, Bam Adebayo looks like a strong center option as Jimmy Butler remains out for the Heat. Adebayo is coming off of a season-high 38 points, as he shot 15 of 22 from the field and secured his third-straight double-double. He has eight double-doubles in his last 10 games and could be in for another great game, as the Hawks rank 22nd in rebounding percentage and Hawks center Clint Capela is questionable to play Sunday.
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