The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a three-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook continues to dominate from a fantasy perspective. He’s failed to post a triple-double in each of his past two games but has made up for it by scoring at least 41 points in each contest. That versatility is what makes Westbrook such an awesome fantasy asset. He’s averaged a slate-best 1.83 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and has posted an average Plus/Minus of +11.19 over his past 10 games.
Westbrook is in a mediocre spot against the Nuggets, who have played at the third-slowest pace this season. Still, Westbrook leads the position with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings and provides one of the safest floors and highest ceilings on the slate. He’s a particularly strong value on DraftKings, where his $11,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%.
Value
The Magic have the best matchup of the day against theKnicks, who rank 27th in defensive efficiency this season. Their implied team total of 111.5 represents a significant increase when compared to their season average of 106.0, which makes them a strong team to target on this slate.
They have two interesting options at the PG position. D.J. Augustin will start and handle the majority of the minutes, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.77 over his past 10 games. He’s coming off 31.75 DraftKings points in his last contest, giving him nice upside at his current salary.
Jerian Grant is one of the better pure values at the position on FanDuel, where his $3,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 70%. He’s averaged a stout 1.20 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and is currently projected for 21 minutes in our NBA Models.
Fast Break
Kyrie Irving has one of the better individual matchups at the position given his Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.48 on DraftKings. His salary has decreased by $800 over the past month, and his current $8,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%.
The Nuggets’ implied team total of 120.5 is the top mark on the slate, and they’re in a massive pace-up spot against the Thunder. They’re a tough team to target in DFS because they have such a balanced roster, but Jamal Murray has nice upside at his current salary.
Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jamal Murray
Murray’s price has decreased by $800 over the past month and he’s averaged 1.00 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Shooting Guard
Stud
There’s no real stud at the SG position on this slate. No one owns a salary of greater than $6,000 on FanDuel, and no one at the position is current projected for more than 30 FanDuel points in our Models. Punting one or both spots at SG is definitely a viable strategy.
If you’re going to pay up, Evan Fournier seems like the best option. He’s coming off a poor performance in his last game but posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his four prior contests. No one at the position is projected for more than his 34.5 minutes, and he’s averaged a respectable 0.82 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.
Value
Marcus Smart has been priced down to $4,100 on DraftKings, giving him a Bargain Rating of 93%. He’s increased his fantasy production to 0.85 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and has played at least 30 minutes in each of his past four games. He’s simply too cheap at his current price tag.
Fast Break
It’s impossible to ignore what Damyean Dotson has done lately. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past five games, including scoring 42.25 DraftKings points in his most recent contest. He remains affordable at $4,200 on DraftKings for Tuesday’s matchup against the Magic, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Allonzo Trier might be the preferred Knicks’ SG on FanDuel. He’s $1,700 cheaper than Dotson, and Triert’s $3,700 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 82%. He hasn’t been as effective as Dotson recently but is still seeing a heavy amount of playing time, logging at least 26.5 minutes in three of his past four games. He should command lower ownership than Dotson as well, which increases his appeal for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Small Forward
Stud
Paul George hasn’t been quite as good as Westbrook recently, but he’s still been an awesome fantasy value.
Credit: Rob Ferguson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Paul George
George has posted an average Plus/Minus of +9.39 over his past 10 games on DraftKings despite the fact that he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in two of his past three games. No one on the slate is projected for more than his 39.4 minutes, and he’s averaged a stout 1.52 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
George is a particularly strong target on DraftKings, where his $10,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%.
Value
Gordon Hayward has seen a solid reduction in playing time with the Celtics back at full strength, but his salary has dropped by $600 on DraftKings over the past month. He’s priced at $4,300 for Tuesday’s matchup against the Raptors, and Hayward has averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He doesn’t need to play much to potentially pay off his reduced salary.
Fast Break
Will Barton is a nice way to get some cheap exposure to the Nuggets on FanDuel. He’s seen a price decrease of $1,100 over the past month, and Barton has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.13 with a comparable price tag (per the Trends tool).
Kawhi Leonard is another interesting buy-low target on FanDuel. He hasn’t played particularly well recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of -1.12 over his past 10 games, which has caused his salary to decrease by $800 over the past month. He’s scored at least 47.5 FanDuel points in each of his first three games against the Celtics this season.
Power Forward
Stud
Paul Millsap has been playing some of his best basketball of the season recently, scoring at least 45.75 DraftKings points in each of his past three games. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.14 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and has also played at least 31 minutes in each of his past three games.
He’s been priced up substantially on FanDuel for Tuesday night’s matchup against the Thunder but remains very reasonably priced on DraftKings. His $6,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Value
Khem Birch doesn’t offer much in terms of upside, but he has been a reliable fantasy producer recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past nine games on FanDuel thanks to an average of 1.08 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He also has the best individual matchup of the day at the position, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.94.
Fast Break
Aaron Gordon benefits from the same elite matchup as Birch and obviously possesses much more upside. He’s coming off a subpar performance in his last game but posted a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in each of the three games prior. He shouldn’t command as much ownership as Millsap, which makes him a strong pivot for GPPs.
Marcus Morris isn’t going to put up a ton of eye-popping performances, but he’s slightly underpriced at $5,100 on FanDuel. He’s averaged 0.91 FanDuel points per minute this season and has posted an average Plus/Minus of +2.76 with a comparable salary this season.
Center
Stud
Paying up at center will likely be a popular strategy on this slate, and that starts at the top with Nikola Jokic.
Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Nikola Jokic
Jokic’s average of 1.64 DraftKings points per minute over the past month trails only Westbrook’s on this slate, and Jokic has posted an average Plus/Minus of +2.49 over his past 10 games. His salary has also decreased by $700 over that span, and his current $10,000 price tag on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%. He leads the position with 13 Pro Trends, and his matchup against the Thunder results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.93.
Value
Mitchell Robinson has averaged a dominant 1.30 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and has the potential to see a larger workload today with DeAndre Jordan unlikely to suit up. He played 30 minutes without Jordan in their last game and responded with 45.0 DraftKings.
Robinson has proven to see a special shot blocker — he’s averaged 4.4 blocks per 36 minutes this season — which gives him big upside at his current salary.
Fast Break
Marc Gasol is the ultimately luxury item for the Raptors. They really don’t need to ask to much of him given the fact that their roster is loaded with quality players, but its nice to know that they have him if they need him.
Gasol moved into the starting lineup in their last game and ultimately responded with 16 points, five rebounds and five assists in 23.5 minutes. His limited playing time caps his upside, but he has the potential to be a strong value at $5,700 on FanDuel. His Bargain Rating of 85% is the top mark at the position by a considerable margin.
It seems unlikely that many people will roster Nikola Vucevic on this slate. Most will either opt to pay all the way up for Jokic or go down to someone like Robinson, which makes Vucevic an interesting target for GPPs. He has arguably the best matchup at the position against the Knicks, who he torched for 56.5 FanDuel points in their last matchup.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: Raptors PG Kyle Lowry
Photo Credit:Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
