The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Yesterday was a nice appetizer, but tonight is the main course. Wednesday features an 11-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guards
Studs
Chris Paul is the highest-priced PG on FanDuel and appears to be in a wonderful spot vs. the New Orleans Pelicans. The Rockets lead all teams with an implied team total of 118.25 points, and Paul has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.42. That said, the big total doesn’t necessarily make Paul a must-play: He averaged a Plus/Minus of -2.17 on FanDuel with a comparable total last season (per the Trends Tool).
The Hornets are expected to play at a faster pace this season, which could lead to big things for Kemba Walker. Charlotte averaged 100.5 possessions per game last season – the ninth-fastest pace in the league – and could push that even higher this year. Substituting Jeremy Lamb for Michael Kidd-Gilchrist in the starting lineup should also give the Hornets the chance to increase their offensive efficiency. Walker averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute, and he seems poised to improve upon that this season. He’s a nice value at $7,600 considering his Bargain Rating of 93%.
Values
Dallas has arguably the best matchup of the day vs. the Phoenix Suns. The Suns ranked dead last in defensive efficiency last season and played at the second-fastest pace, which made them the best team to target in fantasy. Point guards in particular crushed the Suns, averaging a higher Plus/Minus vs. Phoenix than any other team in the league.
Dennis Smith Jr. had a strong rookie season, averaging 0.96 fantasy points per minute. He was extremely effective in major pace-up situations such as this one, averaging a Plus/Minus of +4.77 on FanDuel. He’s priced at $6,600 today, giving him a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Utah is another team with a nice matchup. The Jazz are taking on the Sacramento Kings, who posted the fourth-worst defensive efficiency last season. Ricky Rubio put together a really nice second half last season, averaging 16.0 points, 5.96 assists and 5.14 rebounds per game starting on Feb. 1. The Jazz own an implied team total of 107.5 points, and Rubio averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.46 on FanDuel with a comparable implied team total last season.
Fast Break
De’Aaron Fox should see the majority of minutes at the PG position for the Kings this season and is priced at just $5,200 on FanDuel. He has a difficult matchup vs. the Jazz but is still a bargain considering his expected role.
Mike Conley is priced at just $6,500 on DraftKings, which seems way too low if he’s back to 100%. He’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.69 with a comparable salary.
The Spurs are known as a strong defensive team, but they could have a major liability at the PG position this season. Dejounte Murray was the best defensive PG in the league per ESPN’s Defensive Real Plus/Minus (DRPM) last season, but he’ll miss the season with an injury. That results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +7.51 for Jeff Teague on DraftKings, which is the top mark on the slate.
Shooting Guard
Studs
Unlike Paul, James Harden seems poised to dominate in his matchup vs. the Pelicans. He averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.49 on DraftKings with a comparable implied team total last season, and he eclipsed 64 DraftKings points in two of four meetings vs. the Pelicans last season. There are a lot of studs in consideration on today’s slate, but Harden should be near the top of the list. He averaged a slate-best 1.53 fantasy points per minute last season.
Devin Booker looks like one of the best values of the day on DraftKings, where his $7,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%. He’ll likely spend more time this season at the PG position, which could be massive for his fantasy value: He averaged more points and assists per 48 minutes at PG than SG last season (per 82games.com):
He averaged 1.14 fantasy points per minute last season and could be poised to eclipse that mark in 2018-19.
Value
Jeremy Lin has SG eligibility on DraftKings and should see a healthy role with the Hawks this season. He will serve as the backup PG to Trae Young but should still see plenty of playing time at both guard positions. He’s priced at just $4,000 on DraftKings and averaged 0.91 fantasy points minute last season, which makes him one of the best potential sources of value on today’s slate. That said, he’s not going to fly under the radar: He’s projected for greater than 41% ownership on today’s slate.
Fast Break
Jimmy Butler is fully expected to play for the Timberwolves today despite the fact that he desperately wants out of Minnesota. No one at the position is projected for more minutes than he is at 37, and he averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute last season. He seems underpriced at $6,700 on DraftKings.
Lamb has historically been a fantasy superstar when he sees significant playing time, which should happen a lot more frequently this season. He’s projected for 29 minutes, and Lamb has averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.11 on FanDuel with a comparable minute projection.
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Small Forward
Stud
There has been some serious buzz about Giannis Antetokounmpo this offseason, which should make him a popular target on today’s slate. The Bucks are expected to play at a faster tempo this season, which should obviously be a huge plus for Giannis: He’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.89 on FanDuel in pace-up situations. With both Milwaukee and Charlotte vowing to play faster this year, this game has some underrated shootout potential.
The Bucks will also have more perimeter shooting on the floor for today’s contest after signing Brook Lopez and Ersan Ilyasova in the offseason. Giannis should have more room to operate in the pick-and-roll, and he’ll have more 1-on-1 situations in the paint, which should lead to increased scoring and assist opportunities. Giannis is priced at just $10,900 on DraftKings, giving him a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Value
Kyle Anderson averaged 0.86 fantasy points per minute last season and should see a solid amount of playing time for the Memphis Grizzlies. He’s projected for 32 minutes on today’s slate and owns one of the highest Projected Plus/Minus marks in our NBA Models.
Fast Break
Chapter 2 begins tonight for Kawhi Leonard after he forced his way out of San Antonio this offseason. The Raptors are an excellent landing spot, ranking third in offensive efficiency last season, and he has the potential to see more playing time than he did under Gregg Popovich. He averaged 1.34 DraftKings points per minute in limited playing time last year, so he could be a nice value at just $8,100 on DraftKings.
No one on today’s slate is projected for a better Plus/Minus than Cedi Osman. He should take on a larger role for the Cavs this season, particularly with J.R. Smith already ruled out for today’s contest.
Taurean Prince, who should see all the playing time he can handle for the Atlanta Hawks this season, averaged a solid 0.86 FanDuel points per minute in 2017-18. The Knicks represent a nice matchup for SFs, giving Prince an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.20.
Power Forward
Studs
Power forward was a disaster at times last season but is loaded with quality options today. Anthony Davis headlines the position and will be looking to start another dominant fantasy season today vs. the Houston Rockets. DeMarcus Cousins is no longer in town, which should only help Davis achieve that goal: He averaged a usage rate of 33.1% and 1.60 DraftKings points per minute with Cousins off the floor last season.
That said, the Rockets were one of the few teams to keep Davis in check last season. He averaged a Plus/Minus of -5.07 on DraftKings in three meetings and exceeded salary-based expectations just once. He could still be worth some consideration on DraftKings considering his Bargain Rating of 99%, but he seems a bit overpriced at $12,400 on FanDuel.
This is a big season for Kevin Love. LeBron James decided to take his talents to Los Angeles, which leaves Love as the biggest show in town. He was a dominant fantasy force when he got the opportunity to run the show in Minnesota and averaged 1.44 DraftKings points with LeBron off the court last season. He’s priced very fairly to start the season at $8,300 on FanDuel, and that price could skyrocket if he played like he did in his final season with the Timberwolves.
Value
Montrezl Harrell was one of the top per-minute producers in the league last season, averaging 1.17 FanDuel points per minute. He should see a few extra minutes this season with both Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan now out of town, and his $3,800 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Fast Break
Speaking of Griffin, he’s an interesting pivot away from guys such as Davis and Love on today’s slate. He’s expected to be the offensive focal point for the Pistons this season and offers one of the most diverse skill sets in the league. His ability to fill up the stat sheet gives him upside in an excellent matchup vs. the Brooklyn Nets.
Aaron Gordon is another PF capable of putting up a big game. He’s a freak athlete who shot a career-best 33.6% from 3-point range last season, resulting in an average of 1.04 fantasy points per minute. He should see plenty of minutes after signing a massive extension in the offseason.
Jonathan Isaac could also make some sense for the Magic. He spent most of his rookie season dealing with injuries but averaged a solid 0.76 DraftKings points per minute. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.60 vs. the Miami Heat and is expected to play much more in his sophomore campaign.
Center
Stud
The center position is another deep one on today’s slate, but Nikola Jokic appears to be in the best spot. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.39 on FanDuel vs. the Los Angeles Clippers and averaged an elite 1.34 fantasy points per minute last season. He had the tendency to disappear at times last season, but there are very few players in the league who can do what he does on a basketball court. Jokic averaged 10.1 rebounds and 6.1 assists and shot 39.6% from 3-point range last season; the only other player to hit those thresholds for a full season was Larry Bird.
Value
Brook Lopez looks like a major value on DraftKings at just $4,800. He averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minute last season and should play significantly more for the Bucks than he did for the Lakers in 2017-18. The Hornets are also an excellent matchup, giving Lopez an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.58.
Fast Break
The center position in Orlando appears to be in transition after the Magic spent a top pick on Mo Bamba in the NBA draft. That said, Nikola Vucevic is still starting for the time being, and he averaged 1.27 DraftKings points per minute last season. He’s also historically loved facing the Miami Heat, scoring at least 45.75 DK points in all three matchups last season.
There are a lot of potentially underpriced centers on DraftKings, but Marc Gasol might be the best value. He’s priced at just $6,600 and averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute last season. His matchup vs. the Pacers is also a good one, with Gasol going for at least 46.25 DraftKings points in each matchup last season.
Alex Len looks like one of the best center values on FanDuel at just $5,100. The Hawks are dealing with injuries in their frontcourt at the moment, with both John Collins and Dewayne Dedmon expected to miss today’s contest. Len is projected for 27.8 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.60 on FanDuel with a comparable minute projection.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: Anthony Davis and James Harden
Photo credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports
