The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a five-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Damian Lillard stands out in his own tier. He’s the most expensive PG by $2,000 on FanDuel and $1,400 on DraftKings, and his average of 1.23 FanDuel points per minute this season ranks first at the position. He’s in a decent spot against the Mavericks as evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.28. He should be a popular target on a slate with very few stud options.
Value
Derrick White is starting to solidify his role in the Spurs’ backcourt and has played at least 32.5 minutes in each of the past two games. He might not see as many minutes on Tuesday — those previous two games were both blowouts — but he’s still projected for 28 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s averaged a respectable 0.74 DraftKings points per minute this season, and that combination of playing time and production would make him a nice value at $4,200.
Fast Break
The Suns are a really interesting team on Tuesday’s slate. They’re going to be without Devin Booker and T.J. Warren, which opens up a tremendous amount of minutes and usage for the rest of the roster. They’re also in a fantastic spot against the Kings, who have played at the second-fastest pace this season.
You’re probably going to want to get some exposure to the Kings.
One way to do it is with Elie Okobo. He’s played at least 29 minutes in three straight games and has seen a usage bump of +2.7% with Booker and Warren off the court this season. Okobo also has a nice individual matchup, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.60 on DraftKings.
De’Aaron Fox looks like a strong play on the other side of the same matchup. The Kings own the highest implied team total of the day at 114.25 points, which is not all that surprising given the Suns’ league-worst rating in defensive efficiency. His price has decreased considerably since its peak on FanDuel, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past two games.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The return of Lauri Markkanen did nothing to dampen the fantasy numbers for Zach LaVine, who posted 48.3 FanDuel points in his last outing. He’s gone for at least 39.6 FanDuel points in six of his past seven games, yet his salary has actually decreased by $300 over that time frame. He has a tough matchup on paper against the Pacers, who currently rank fourth in the league in defensive efficiency, but their defense has been less stout with Victor Oladipo off the court this season.
LaVine leads all SGs with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $8,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 75%.
Value
The Kings own a trio of interesting SGs on Tuesday’s slate. Buddy Hield is the most expensive option on DraftKings and has been a strong value this season, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.29. His production has waned a bit recently, but he’s still averaging 0.96 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He owns the highest minute projection of the trio, and his $6,000 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 75%.
Bogdan Bogdanovic has been on fire recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +8.05 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. His salary has increased by $1,300 over that time frame, but his current $5,800 price tag still results in a Bargain Rating of 95%. He’s seen at least 30 minutes in four of his past five games, which makes him pretty safe despite coming off the bench.
Iman Shumpert is the cheapest of the bunch and can’t be discounted as a true punt play. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games, and players with a comparable salary and minute projection have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.78 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).
Fast Break
Evan Fournier has struggled this season but looks like a prime candidate for some positive regression. He’s shot just 41.4% from the field and 29.2% from 3-point range, both of which are well below his marks from last season. His price has decreased by $1,000 since the start of the year on FanDuel, which could make him an interesting buy low candidate.
Jamal Crawford should be one of the biggest benefactors from the Suns’ current injury situation. He might not see a huge bump in playing time — he played just 17 minutes in their most recent game — but he’s seen the largest usage bump on the team with Booker and Warren off the court this season. Very few players offer the same kind of upside as Crawford at a comparable price tag.
Small Forward
Stud
Josh Richardson is the most expensive option at the SF position on FanDuel, but there’s more risk than usual with him on Tuesday. For starters, the Heat are getting healthier, and Tyler Johnson is expected to make his return after missing each of the past six games. His presence could result in a few less minutes for Richardson and could lower his usage rate as well.
Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Josh Richardson
Richardson also has a subpar matchup against the Magic, who have played at one of the slowest paces this season. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.30 on FanDuel, and the Heat’s implied team total of 105.0 is the fourth-lowest mark on the slate. Richardson is still projected for 21-25% ownership on FanDuel, which makes him a strong fade candidate.
Value
Bojan Bogdanovic — no relation to Bogdan — should continue to reap the benefits of Oladipo’s absence. He’s increased his fantasy production to 0.82 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and has seen a usage bump of +2.0% with Oladipo off the court this season. He has a nice matchup against the Bulls, who are tied for 20th in defensive efficiency.
His $5,200 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Fast Break
The Kings will be without Marvin Bagley for the second straight game, which could result in a bigger workload for Nemanja Bjelica. That didn’t end up being the case in their last game — he saw just under 20 minutes of playing time — but he did post a usage rate of 27.8%. His salary has decreased all the way to $3,900 on DraftKings, and he’s averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Trevor Ariza exploded for 39.3 FanDuel points in their last game, and he did it in just 31 minutes. He has the potential to play much more than that if Tuesday’s game stays competitive, and his $5,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 81%.
Power Forward
Stud
Domantas Sabonis has been an absolute monster recently, scoring at least 38 DraftKings points in six of his past eight games. He very rarely sees big minutes, but he makes the most out of what he’s given: He’s averaged 1.40 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s also seen the largest usage bump on the team with Oladipo sidelined and owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.09 against a soft Chicago interior. He looks like an excellent value at $7,200 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 86%.
Value
Josh Jackson started the season poorly but has come on strong of late. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.45 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, and he obviously stands to benefit from the injuries to Booker and Warren. In the only game that both Booker and Warren have missed this season, Jackson led the team in minutes (38), DraftKings points (31.5) and assist rate (31.8%) and ranked second in usage as well (27.6%).
Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Josh Jackson
Jackson should be one of the highest owned players on the slate.
Fast Break
Aaron Gordon has not been a particularly useful fantasy asset recently, but his salary has decreased to $6,900 on DraftKings for Tuesday’s matchup with the Heat. He’s actually increased his per-minute production over the past month, averaging 1.06 DraftKings points per minute, but his overall numbers have been dragged down by a lack of minutes. He’s an excellent contrarian option for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Lauri Markkanen wasn’t limited much in his first game back from injury and ultimately played 25.5 minutes. He’s currently projected for 30 minutes on Tuesday’s slate, which could make him interesting at $5,400 on DraftKings. He averaged just less than 1.00 fantasy points per minute last season.
Center
Stud
There’s plenty of value on Tuesday’s slate, so paying up for one of the top center options makes sense. That starts with Nikola Vucevic, who has been a man among boys recently. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +9.59 over his past 10 games on DraftKings and has averaged 1.50 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He also has a nice matchup against the Heat, who he’s historically dominated: He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +9.85 over their past nine meetings on DraftKings. He’s been priced up to a career-high on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but fitting him in on Tuesday’s slate shouldn’t be a problem.
Value
If you’re looking to punt the center position — which will definitely be a contrarian strategy on Tuesday — Kosta Koufos could be your guy. He’s priced at the absolute minimum on both DraftKings and FanDuel and entered the rotation for the first time in a month with Bagley out of the lineup in the Kings’ last game. He’s averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute on the season, so he doesn’t need to play much to provide value at such a low salary.
Fast Break
DeAndre Ayton has had an impressive rookie season and could be asked to carry a larger load than usual on Tuesday. He’s seen a usage bump of +2.4% with Booker and Warren off the floor this season, and he’s seen a massive salary decrease of $1,700 over the past month on FanDuel. He leads the position with 12 Pro Trends and owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.73 vs. the Kings.
I’ve basically stopped trying to figure out what the Heat are going to do at center on a nightly basis. It seemed like Hassan Whiteside was squarely in the doghouse heading into their last game — he had played 25 or fewer minutes in four straight — but he exploded for 61.0 FanDuel points in 34 minutes. He has arguably the highest ceiling on the slate regardless of position, but there’s considerable downside as well.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: Nikola Vucevic
Photo credit: Bill Streicher-USA Today Sports
