NBA Fantasy Breakdown (Sat. 1/12): Target Donovan Mitchell Playing Point Guard

The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.

Saturday features a six-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Point Guard

Stud

Russell Westbrook headlines the point guard position today and is coming off 83.25 DraftKings points in his most recent contest. He recorded 24 points, 24 assists, and 13 rebounds in a double-overtime loss to the San Antonio Spurs. He’ll face the same team on today’s slate, and the Spurs have struggled against point guards this season, giving Westbrook an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.59. He leads the position with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where his $11,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.

Value

Devin Booker is doubtful for today’s contest vs. the Denver Nuggets, which means we can continue to roster De’Anthony Melton. He’s seen a team-high usage bump of +3.1% with Booker off the court this season, resulting in an average of 0.87 FanDuel points per minute. The Nuggets do represent a difficult matchup — they currently rank 10th in defensive efficiency and 27th in pace — but Melton seems to cheap at just $4,400 on FanDuel.

Fast Break

Kemba Walker is in one of the best spots of the day vs. the Sacramento Kings. They’ve played at the second fastest pace this season, and the Hornets’ resulting implied team total of 114.0 ranks fifth on the slate. Walker’s salary has also decreased by $1,000 over the past month on FanDuel, which could make this an excellent time to buy low on him.

Elfrid Payton has seen reduced minutes over his past three games, which the Hornets have won by an average of 23.3 points. He should return to his normal workload today vs. the Timberwolves, which makes him an excellent target at just $5,600 on DraftKings. He’s averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute this season, and his current price tag results in a Bargain Rating of 98%.

Shooting Guard

Stud

Donovan Mitchell thrived for the shorthanded Jazz last night. He got the opportunity to play point guard and responded with nine assists, which was tied for the most of his career. He also contributed as a scorer, resulting in 57.3 FanDuel points in just under 33 minutes.

Mitchell has been scoring the bell well in general recently, totaling at least 26 points in each of his past four games, and his additional upside as a distributor makes him really appealing today vs. the Bulls. His 11 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position on FanDuel, where his $8,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.

Value

On the other side of the same matchup, Zach LaVine is priced at a discount at just $6,100 on DraftKings. The Jazz are obviously a difficult matchup, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +0.28, but LaVine’s current salary represents a decrease of $1,300 over the past month. He’s been a solid value with a comparable price tag this season, posting an average Plus/Minus of +1.42 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).

Fast Break

The Hornets have a pair of interesting shooting guard options in Jeremy Lamb and Malik Monk. Lamb looks like the better value on FanDuel, where his $5,800 salary represents a decrease of $700 over the past month. He’s averaged 0.95 FanDuel points per minutes this season and is currently projected for 33.5 minutes in our NBA Models, which would make him a strong target in a plus-matchup vs. the Kings.

Monk is worth some consideration on DraftKings at just $3,600. He’s averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he doesn’t need to play many minutes to potentially return value at his current salary.

Dennis Schroder has been a major disappointment over his past 10 games, posting an average Plus/Minus of -1.78 on DraftKings. That said, his salary has decreased to $4,700 in a great matchup vs. the Spurs, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.59. He doesn’t offer much downside at his current salary.

Small Forward

Stud

Paul George was arguably the fantasy MVP of the first half of the season, but Westbrook’s recent increase in usage puts a severe damper on his outlook moving forward. George played 46 minutes in their most recent contest but still failed to post a positive Plus/Minus in that contest. He still leads the position with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel, but it seems unlikely that both he and Westbrook can both post big games at their current salaries.

Value

Royce O’Neal appears to be the bigger winner for the Jazz given their current injury situation, tallying a whopping 39.5 minutes of playing time yesterday vs. the Lakers. That number is slightly inflated by the fact that the game turned into a blowout, but he still figures to see a huge workload as long as Ricky Rubio, Dante Exum, and Raul Neto are all sidelined. He’s impossible to ignore at the absolute minimum on FanDuel and deserves to be one of the highest owned players on the slate.

Fast Break

T.J. Warren should continue to get some additional shot attempts with Booker out of the lineup, which gives him upside at $6,800 on FanDuel. He scored just 27.9 FanDuel points in his most recent contest but had posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his three prior games.

Davis Bertans has been one of the primary beneficiaries of Rudy Gay’s absence recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus three of his past four games. He’s a solid value at $3,700 on DraftKings but does offer much in terms of upside.

Power Forward

Stud

Anthony Davis has been a bit overshadowed by James Harden recently, but his level of play has been equally ridiculous. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.86 over his past 10 games, and the only thing that has really been able to stop him recently has been blowout. He’s averaged a ridiculous 1.79 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and is currently projected for 39 minutes in our NBA Models, which makes him extremely tough to fade.

Davis is also in a decent spot vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.49. He leads all power forwards with 12 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where his $11,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.

Value

Derrick Favors is another member of the Jazz who could benefit from their current injury situation. He saw 25.5 minutes in yesterday’s contest despite barely playing in the fourth quarter, which bodes well for his outlook moving forward. He’s averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he can do some damage with additional playing time. He’s priced at a discount at just $5,100 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%.

Fast Break

Aaron Gordon has seen a massive price decrease over the past month on DraftKings, which could make him an intriguing option at just $6,400. He has a tough matchup vs. the Celtics but has big upside at his current salary.

Josh Jackson and Richaun Holmes could both be interesting targets for the Phoenix Suns. Jackson has the safer floor and leads the position with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $5,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.

Holmes also has some appeal for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) at just $3,800. He’s averaged 1.26 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, which gives him huge upside if he sees some additional playing time.

Center

Stud

Rudy Gobert looks like one of the strongest plays of the day on FanDuel, where his $8,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 60%. That doesn’t sound all that impressive, but it’s surprisingly strong for a high-priced center on FanDuel. He’s in an elite spot today vs. the Bulls, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.69.

Value

The center position for the Hornets could be a source of value today. They’ve split the minutes pretty evenly between Bismack Biyombo and Willie Hernangomez, and both players have an excellent matchup today vs. the Kings. Biyombo looks like the better target on FanDuel (86% Bargain Rating), while Hernangomez makes more sense on DraftKings (95% Bargain Rating).

Fast Break

Nikola Vucevic leads the center position with 14 Pro Trends on DraftKings and has averaged an elite 1.52 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s in a difficult spot vs. the Celtics, but Vucevic scored 24 points and pulled down 12 rebounds in his first meeting with Boston this season.

Good luck!

News Updates

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Pictured: Utah Jazz G Donovan Mitchell
Photo Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports