The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a seven-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
The Boston Celtics have been slumping recently, dropping four straight games and six of their last eight. That said, they’re in a prime get-right spot today vs. the Washington Wizards, who have been one of the best matchups in fantasy this season. The Wiz rank just 26th in defensive efficiency, and the Celtics’ implied team total of 122.0 ranks second on the slate.
Kyrie Irving should be one of the prime beneficiaries of this matchup. He’s been playing a ton of minutes recently, logging at least 35 in three of his last four games. He’s averaged 1.36 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he can do some serious damage with that much playing time. Irving is a top target today on DraftKings, where his $8,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Value
Rajon Rondo re-entered the Lakers starting lineup in his last game and ultimately scored 47.4 FanDuel points in 37.5 minutes. He is already confirmed to remain in the starting lineup for tonight’s contest vs. the Bucks, which makes him a really appealing target across the industry. That game has a total of 239.5 points, so it should provide one of the best fantasy environments on the slate.
Fast Break
Patrick Beverley has seen a nice boost in value recently. He’s logged at least 36 minutes in each of his past two games and has scored at least 38.5 FanDuel points in each. He’s increased his fantasy production to 0.90 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and has an excellent matchup vs. the Sacramento Kings, who have played at the second-fastest pace in the league this season. Beverley is a particularly strong target on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 93%.
Kemba Walker has been a strong value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.92 over his last 10 games on DraftKings. He’s also posted a Consistency Rating of 90% over the past month, yet his salary has still decreased by $400 over that time frame. He’s an excellent target at $8,200 on DraftKings in a plus matchup vs. the Brooklyn Nets.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The Anthony Davis saga in New Orleans has overshadowed the fact that Jrue Holiday has played some of the best basketball of his career this season. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.48 on DraftKings this season and +3.98 over his past 10 games. He’s scored at least 43.25 DraftKings points in four of his last five contests, yet his salary has decreased by $1,200 over the past month.
Holiday is in an elite spot today vs. the Phoenix Suns. They rank just 29th in defensive efficiency this season, giving Holiday an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.25. His 13 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position on DraftKings, where his $7,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Value
Here’s what I said about Bogdan Bogdanovic the last time he was on the slate:
What does Bogdanovic have to do to get some respect? He remains criminally underpriced on DraftKings at $4,900 despite the fact that he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his last seven games. He’s averaged 1.00 DraftKings points per minute this season and is currently projected for 28.3 minutes in our NBA Models.
He responded by dropping 58.0 DraftKings points on the Bucks in 43 minutes, but he still remains extremely affordable at $5,400 for today’s matchup vs. the Clippers. He’s averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute this season and is currently projected for 31.8 minutes in our NBA Models, which makes him an extremely safe investment.
Fast Break
Lou Williams is a classic boom-or-bust type of player, and he’s had a lot more booms than busts recently. He’s scored at least 45.8 FanDuel points in three of his last six games and has logged at least 32 minutes in three of his last four. He’s averaged a stout 1.27 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and should benefit from the fast-paced matchup vs. the Kings.
Kevin Huerter was limited to just 23 minutes in his first game back from injury but saw 30.5 minutes in his most recent contest. That should be enough playing time for him to return value at his current $3,500 salary on DraftKings given his average of 0.74 DraftKings points per minute. He also has a nice matchup vs. the Bulls, who rank just 24th in defensive efficiency this season.
Small Forward
Stud
It’s hard to ignore what LeBron James has been doing lately. He’s been playing a ton of minutes recently, seeing at least 37 in six of his last seven games, and he’s scored at least 63.5 DraftKings points in all but one of those contests. Head coach Luke Walton knows that riding LeBron is his best chance of getting this team into the playoffs, so expect another massive workload for LeBron tonight vs. the Milwaukee Bucks. He leads the position with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings, and his $11,400 salary results in a Bargain Rating of 93%. He’s the safest option on the board for cash games.
Value
Harrison Barnes is another member of the Kings who is underpriced at the moment. He’s coming off 38.5 DraftKings points in his most recent contest and has posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his last five games. The injury to Marvin Bagley, who is out for at least the next week, should solidify his playing time in a nice matchup vs. the Clippers.
Fast Break
LeBron is the clear top target at the position for cash games, but Giannis Antetokounmpo could be an interesting option for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) on FanDuel. He’s been priced down to just $11,000, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 96%, and he leads the position with 14 Pro Trends. He’s averaged 1.80 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, giving him plenty of upside at his current salary. Of course, there is plenty of downside as well since Giannis was limited to just 24 minutes in his last game.
Otto Porter has been an awesome value for the Bulls recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in five of his last six games on DraftKings. The only exception was a game in which he logged just 14 minutes due to injury, and he should return to his normal workload tonight in a great matchup vs. the Hawks. He’s averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which makes him a nice target at $6,300.
Power Forward
Stud
Julius Randle is another member of the Pelicans who has been overlooked recently. He’s played at least 34 minutes in each of his last four games and has averaged 1.28 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he has unsurprisingly returned value in each of those contests. He’s in a great spot today vs. the Phoenix Suns, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.18, and his $8,000 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 89%.
Value
Harry Giles is expected to be a popular option today on DraftKings, where he is currently projected for 21-25% ownership. It’s easy to see why: He’s currently priced at just $3,100 and figures to take on a larger workload with Bagley sidelined. He’s averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he doesn’t need to play much to be a strong value at his current salary. He’s also coming off 30.75 DraftKings points in just 17.5 minutes in his last contest, so he has a strong ceiling as well.
Fast Break
Marvin Williams has been a reliable fantasy producer of late, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.83 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. That said, his salary has actually decreased by $400 over that time frame, and his current $4,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%. He has a nice matchup today vs. the Brooklyn Nets, who have given up big games to opposing big men all season.
Montrezl Harrell is a strong buy-low target today vs. the Kings. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in three of his past four games on FanDuel but has played at least 26.5 minutes in each of his last two. He’s averaged 1.26 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and the Kings represent an excellent matchup.
Center
Stud
Al Horford isn’t exactly priced like a stud at $6,400 on DraftKings but has provided stud-like production recently. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.71 over his last 10 games on DraftKings and is in a wonderful spot today vs. the Washington Wizards. They rank just 29th in rebound rate in addition to struggling defensively, giving Horford an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.60 on DraftKings. He’s an elite target on DraftKings, where his current salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Value
Willie Cauley-Stein also figures to benefit from the injury to Bagley. He’s coming off 32 minutes in his most recent contest, which is the most he’s played in nearly a month. He’s averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute this season and owns one of the best matchups of the day vs. the Los Angeles Clippers. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.08, and his $4,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Fast Break
I’m not sure if Brook Lopez vs. the Lakers really counts as a #RevengeGame, but I’m interested nonetheless. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past eight games on DraftKings, yet his salary has decreased by $500 over that time frame. The Lakers are a strong matchup, giving Lopez an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.68.
John Collins is questionable today for the Atlanta Hawks, and his absence would likely result in a few additional minutes for Dewayne Dedmon. He’s averaged 1.07 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and his $5,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 82%.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured: Kings C Willie Cauley-Stein
Photo Credit: Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports
