For Wednesday night, we get the largest slate of the season so far, with 13 games on the schedule. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
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Top Ceiling: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. New Orleans Pelicans – $10,400 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel
Gilgeous-Alexander has been outstanding this season and should continue to thrive tonight vs. the Pelicans. Excluding a 33-point blowout loss to the defending champion Nuggets that severely limited his minutes, Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 59.75 DKFP in his three other starts this season. Not only does the guard rank top five in the league in usage rate this season (35%), Gilgeous-Alexander also ranks top-20 in assist percentage (28.6%), resulting in a massive 1.5 DraftKings PPM.
New Orleans is a solid defense – they rank ninth in efficiency – but this contest carries the third-highest total on the slate (227.5 points), and Oklahoma City’s implied team total is the fifth largest on the board (115.5 points) via FantastyLabs Vegas page.
Additionally, the Thunder will be at home tonight. Gilgeous-Alexander has always been more productive on his home floor throughout his career, and when playing behind an implied team total of at least 112 points at home over the last two seasons, the rising star has generated 53 DraftKings PPG, via the Trends tool.
Top Value: Bones Hyland vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $5,100 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
With the Clippers trading away Robert Covington, Nic Batum, KJ Martin, and Marcus Morris in the James Harden deal and the superstar not available to make his Clippers’ deal last night, Hyland got the start for Los Angeles and delivered 25 DraftKings across 32.2 minutes in a win over Orlando.
The guard has always commanded a high usage rate, and even though he shared the first unit with Russell Westbrook, Paul George, and Kawhi Leonard, Hyland still finished with a healthy 20.5% usage rate in the victory. Now, with Harden already ruled out for tonight, Hyland should continue to see over 30 minutes of work as a starter, and his usage could grow even further if either Leonard or George are rested, with this being the second leg of a back-to-back set for the Clippers.
Nonetheless, Hyland should have zero issues beating his current salaries with a full complement of minutes and is a terrific value play for all formats. In the 20 career games the guard has received a minimum of 25 minutes, Hyland is producing 33.3 DraftKings PPG.
Top Ceiling: Anthony Edwards vs. Denver Nuggets – $9,300 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel
Edwards shouldn’t be a common name in GPPs tonight and is a sharp high-end contrarian play. Notably, FantasyLabs projections forecasted him to be less than 1% owned on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Leading the Wolves with a 30% usage rate this season, Edwards is scoring 1.2 DraftKings PPM and has recorded at least 47 DraftKings in two of his first three starts.
The Nuggets are a top-five defense in efficiency thus far, but Edwards was tremendous against this club last season, supplying 46.5 DraftKings PPG across nine matchups. Plus, the Wolves will be at home tonight, and over the last two seasons, the wing has provided nearly five DraftKings PPG more on his home floor than when competing on the road.
Denver is only favored by 2.5 points for this tilt, and when competing in a spread under five points at home over the last two seasons, Edwards has exposed his opponents for 48 DraftKings PPG, via the Trends tool.
Top Value: Malcolm Brogdon at Detroit Pistons – $5,700 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel
Priced under $6K on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Brogdon is vastly underpriced for his current role and is a value play that needs to be rostered. While he comes off the bench, Brogdon has seen the biggest upgrade to his workload with Anfernee Simons (out, thumb) on the shelf. In these last three without the guard, Brogdon is scoring 32 DraftKings points in 29 minutes per game with a team-high 30% usage rate.
While the Pistons rank 10th in defensive efficiency, they could get weaker if Jalen Duren (questionable, ankle) sits. Nevertheless, Brogdon is a safe investment for at least 30 fantasy points this evening.
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Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum vs. Indiana Pacers – $10,300 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel
While the Celtics are the largest favorites on the board tonight at -11.5 over the Pacers, a Boston blowout easily could come via a Tatum explosion, and perusing his huge ceiling in GPPs tonight is a terrific way to differentiate yourself from the field – via FantasyLabs projections, Tatum is only forecasted to be around 2% owned on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The superstar is leading the Celtics with a 30.7% usage rate and 1.4 DraftKings PPM this season, and this Indiana club he is facing ranks fifth in pace, which is a huge upgrade for this Boston squad that ranks 23rd.
Tatum eclipsed 60 DraftKings points in two of his three matchups with the Pacers last season, and the Celtics’ implied team total is the highest on the slate tonight (123 points). When playing behind an implied team total of 120 points or greater over the last two seasons, Tatum is amassing 54 DraftKings PPG (24 games) and has scored over 60 DraftKings points in a third of those starts.
Top Value: David Roddy at Utah Jazz – $3,800 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel
With the Grizzlies undermanned to begin this season, with Ja Morant (suspension), Steven Adams (knee), Brandon Clarke (Achilles), and Santi Aldama (ankle) all unavailable, Roddy has seen a solid role off the bench, scoring 18.1 DraftKings points in 24 minutes per game. In fact, the 22-year-old has closed three of Memphis’ four games this year with the starters over Ziaire Williams.
Roddy isn’t the most efficient fantasy asset – he is averaging 0.75 DraftKings PPM this season – but clearly is mispriced for his current role and has the potential for over 20 fantasy points tonight against the Jazz, who rank dead last in defensive efficiency.
Top Ceiling: Kristaps Porzingis vs. Indiana Pacers – $8,200 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
Just like Tatum, Porzingis is a player we should have exposure to tonight, regardless of the Celtics being huge favorites. So far in Boston, the Latvian has seen a 21.7% usage rate, which ranks third on the team, only trailing Tatum and Jaylen Brown. Porzingis is supplying 1.3 DraftKings PPM and should flourish in this dream matchup with the Pacers. In addition to Indiana ranking fifth in pace, no team in the league is surrendering more points in the paint than the Pacers.
The Celtics’ implied team total is the highest on the slate (123 points), and Porzingis is averaging 44 DraftKings PPG when playing behind an implied team total of at least 120 points over the last two seasons, via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Jabari Smith Jr. vs. Charlotte Hornets – $5,500 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
After disappointing in the season opener vs. the Magic with only 16.25 DraftKings points – which was a product of the Rockets losing by 30 points – Smith Jr. has been solid in his last two starts, scoring 26.25 DraftKings points vs. the Spurs and then 36 DraftKings points vs. the Warriors. The sophomore forward has seen 36 minutes per game across these two starts and should find himself in the 35-40-minute range tonight, with this matchup with Charlotte presenting a tight spread of only 2.5 points in favor of Houston.
Smith Jr. is collecting 0.8 DraftKings PPM with a 19.7% usage rate so far this season, and this is a perfect spot for him, with the Hornets ranking fourth in pace and allowing the second most points in the paint. A season-best performance is possible for Smith Jr. tonight, and he is a superb mid-tier target to attack in GPPs.
Top Ceiling: Anthony Davis vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $9,800 DraftKings, $11,600 FanDuel
Davis is the best expensive center to consider, especially at only $9,800 on DraftKings. The Kentucky product has been incredible, scoring over 60 DraftKings points in three straight starts. For the season, Davis owns a 26.1% usage rate and is generating 1.5 DraftKings PPM. The Clippers have been the No.1 defense in the league so far, but as noted above, there is a chance one of, or both of Leonard and George are rested for this already shorthanded Clippers’ squad tonight, which would obviously soften this matchup.
Either way, Davis is too cheap for his current form and is very appealing for GPPs, with the big man slated for single-digit ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel, according to FantasyLabs projections.
Top Value: John Collins vs. Memphis Grizzlies – $5,500 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel
Collins has fit in great with the Jazz so far, amassing 31.9 DraftKings points in 31.5 minutes per game through their first four contests. The ex-Hawk has tallied a double-double in three of these four games and was only one rebound shy in that lone outlier.
Going against a Grizzlies’ team that starts two natural big men and with this tilt carrying a tight spread of 2.5 points in favor of Utah, Collins should approach 35 minutes and exceed 30 fantasy points. For both DraftKings and FanDuel, the former Hawk is expected to come with single-digit ownership.