Wednesday presents a nine-game slate on DraftKings. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Cade Cunningham vs. Boston Celtics – $10,500
Cunningham has been playing at a superstar level. After erupting for 76.25 DraftKings points vs. the Hawks, the guard posted 58.25 DraftKings points vs. the Clippers in his next start, which was very impressive, given Los Angeles ranks fourth in defensive efficiency this season. Wednesday presents another tough matchup vs. the Celtics, who rank fifth in defensive efficiency, but Boston is playing their second game in two nights, and Cunningham has risen to the occasion of playing the defending champions this season, scoring at least 52 DraftKings points in two of his three matchups with the Celtics.
Cunningham has a ceiling over 60 DraftKings points in our ShotQuality projections and should be low owned in GPPs given he is facing Boston.
Top Value: Lonzo Ball vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $4,700
Ball is rating as the No. 1 value on the slate in our ShotQuality projections and is a strong target for all formats. The guard’s night got cut short Monday due to a laceration to his head, but Ball hasn’t been listed on the Bulls’ injury report for tonight and is a full go, while Nikola Vucevic (calf) is doubtful. Ball had seen at least 28 minutes in three straight games before Monday, and he should see an expanded role with Vucevic absent.
With the center off the floor this season, Ball’s usage rises a team-high 3.7 percentage points, and he produces 1.1 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool. The Clippers are a stout defense, but Ball is clearly underpriced for his expected role tonight.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Jalen Green vs. San Antonio Spurs – $7,500
Green posted 40 DraftKings points in last night’s win over the Bucks, and Fred VanVleet (ankle) will remain out Wednesday for the 11th game in a row. Green’s usage increases 1.4 percentage points to 29.6% with VanVleet off the floor this season, and Green is in a prime matchup vs. the Spurs, who are without Victor Wembanyama (shoulder).
San Antonio’s defensive rating has been at 118.3 with Wembanyama off the court this season, which would be tied with the Jazz for the worst defensive rating in the NBA if it were the Spurs’ average for the season. The Rockets carry the fourth-highest implied team total on the slate (119.5 points), and Green has already torched San Antonio for over 40 DraftKings points in two of his three meetings with the division rival this season. Green should eclipse 40 DraftKings points again tonight and is the best pay-up option at shooting guard.
Top Value: Dyson Daniels at Miami Heat – $6,700
Following the trades the Hawks made at the deadline, Daniels has taken on a more featured role. In his 10 starts this month, Daniels is amassing 41 DraftKings points in 35.9 minutes per game with a 19% usage rate. The wing is a legitimate contender for Defensive Player of the Year, and Daniels’ elite defense gives him a huge ceiling every night. Daniels is leading the NBA with 3.1 steals per game this season, and he has notably racked up seven steals in a game twice this season.
Daniels’ salary on DraftKings remains too low for his current role, and he should exceed five times value tonight, regardless of this being a subpar matchup against a Heat team that ranks 27th in pace.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum at Detroit Pistons – $9,900
Tatum has been brilliant as of late. In his last six starts, Tatum hasn’t scored lower than 45 DraftKings points, and he has topped 50 DraftKings points four times, including a 64.5 DraftKings point showing vs. the Spurs. Tatum’s playmaking has been superb, with him tallying at least seven assists in four straight games, all of which have been double-doubles, and in his lone start against the Pistons this season, Tatum recorded 53.5 DraftKings points.
Tatum is a strong target no matter what, but keep an eye out for the Celtics’ injury report, as they may be without some key players, which would result in boosts for Tatum. Kristaps Porzingis was a late scratch last night vs. the Raptors with an illness, and Jaylen Brown missed the last few minutes of this game with an injury that seemed to be bothering him throughout the contest.
Top Value: Deni Avdija at Washington Wizards – $6,500
With both Deandre Ayton (calf) and Robert Williams (knee) out again tonight, Avdija is an elite value play. With those two centers inactive Monday, Avdija posted 44.5 DraftKings points vs. the Jazz. The forward is supplying 33 DraftKings PPG in the eight starts he has made with both Ayton and Williams inactive this season, and visiting the Wizards tonight, who rank second-to-last in defensive efficiency this season, Portland presents the fifth-highest implied team total on the slate (119 points).
This is the second-largest implied team total the Trail Blazers have seen this season, and let’s not forget, Washington is Avdija’s former team. He should have some extra motivation tonight and easily outproduce this reasonable price tag.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Josh Hart vs. Philadelphia 76ers – $7,900
Hart (knee) made his return from a two-game absence Sunday vs. the Celtics and saw no limitations, logging 40 minutes en route to 47.75 DraftKings points. The versatile wing is now scoring 40 DraftKings points in 37.5 minutes per game this season, which is the second-highest playing time average in the NBA.
Hart has been a menace against the 76ers this season, notching a triple-double in both of his meetings with the division rival, resulting in 55.6 DraftKings PPG. Philadelphia ranks 24th in defensive rating over their last 10 games, and Hart is a safe bet for over 40 DraftKings points; that would become an even better target if Karl-Anthony Towns (questionable, knee) sits. With the center off the floor this season, Hart generates 1.12 DraftKings PPM, thanks to his rebound rate increasing 2.5 percentage points to a large 17.5%, via the On/Off Tool.
Top Value: Jerami Grant at Washington Wizards – $5,400
Just like Avdija, Grant benefits with both Ayton and Williams missing. With these centers absent, Grant sees more work at center for small ball lineups, which boosts his numbers significantly. Grant is averaging 26.3 DraftKings PPG this season, but with both Ayton and Williams inactive, Grant is contributing 32.6 DraftKings PPG (six games).
Ranking second-to-last in defensive efficiency, the Wizards are one of the best matchups Grant could ask for, and he is the No. 1 forward value on the slate in our ShotQuality projections in this elite spot.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Ivica Zubac at Chicago Bulls – $7,400
Kawhi Leonard (foot) will return tonight after missing the last two games, but Norman Powell (knee) will remain out for the Clippers. The veteran is commanding a huge 27.5% usage rate this season, and with Powell missing, Zubac has flourished. The center has made two starts alongside Leonard with Powell inactive this season, and Zubac has dominated on those occasions with 44.1 DraftKings PPG.
Going against a Bulls team that ranks 26th in defensive efficiency and is allowing the most points in the paint this season, Zubac is a tremendous target that has 50 DraftKings point upside.
Top Value: Zach Collins vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $4,400
Opposite of Zubac, Collins is an elite value play with Vucevic expected to miss his second straight game. Collins started in place of Vucevic on Monday vs. the 76ers and finished with 30.75 DraftKings points across 27 minutes. With Collins as their starting center, the Bulls beat Philadelphia by 32 points, and Collins led Chicago in plus/minus in this victory.
With Zubac on the other side, Collins should see close to 30 minutes tonight and surpass five times value with ease. The big man is collecting 1.0 DraftKings PPM this season, and he has recorded at least 24 DraftKings points in each of the five games he has logged over 20 minutes.
