Thursday presents a five-game slate. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic at Milwaukee Bucks – $12,000
Doncic (ankle) is questionable tonight, but he played through a questionable tag Monday and finished with a triple-double of 62.5 DraftKings points in 41.2 minutes vs. the Nets. The superstar should suit up again tonight, and he will be worth paying up for with LeBron James (groin) and Rui Hachimura (knee) sidelined for the second game in a row.
In the 112 minutes Doncic has played as a Laker with James and Hachimura off the floor, Doncic’s usage leaps 9.8 percentage points to 39.9%, and his assist percentage skyrockets 16.8 percentage points to 55.7%. These are truly incredible rates, and Doncic scores a mammoth 1.9 DraftKings PPM with this expanded workload, via the On/Off Tool. Facing a Bucks defense that has always had trouble slowing down point guards with Damian Lillard at the helm, Doncic has a ceiling over 70 DraftKings points.
Top Value: Tre Jones vs. Brooklyn Nets – $5,000
With the Bulls very shorthanded on guards, Jones is a core play for this short slate. Josh Giddey (ankle) and Lonzo Ball (wrist) are doubtful, while Ayo Dosunmu (shoulder) is done for the season. Jones has started in four straight games with Ball and Dosunmu out and produced 31.4 DraftKings points in 32.3 minutes per game with the starting job. Giddey was available for all these games, and with the guard now missing from the picture, Jones should approach 40 minutes and see an increased usage rate.
Jones’ usage rises 1.2 percentage points to 17% with Giddey, Ball, and Donsunmu off the floor this season, resulting in 1.0 DraftKings PPM. The Nets rank 23rd in defensive rating since the All-Star Break, and Jones has 40 DraftKings point upside in this optimal situation.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
a
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Austin Reaves at Milwaukee Bucks – $7,500
With James and Hachimura inactive Monday vs. the Nets, Reaves thrived as the Lakers’ No. 2 option behind Doncic. In 36 minutes of work, Reaves flirted with a triple-double and posted 44.5 DraftKings points. Thanks to his usage and assist rates increasing 3.2 and 8.5 percentage points, respectively, Reaves is amassing 1.3 DraftKings PPM with James and Hachimura off the court this season, via the On/Off Tool.
Reaves should top 40 DraftKings points tonight, and he is an appealing spend at this $7,500 salary, which is too low for life without James and Hachimura.
Top Value: Jordan Goodwin at Milwaukee Bucks – $3,600
Continuing with the shorthanded Lakers, Goodwin is an excellent punt play. With James and Hachimura unavailable Monday, Goodwin saw his largest role since joining the Lakers, logging 24 minutes off the bench, en route to 30.5 DraftKings points vs. the Nets. Goodwin has always been a strong fantasy asset when given significant playing time throughout his career, and with 20-25 minutes off the bench again tonight, Goodwin should score nothing less than 20 DraftKings points.
In the 61 minutes Goodwin has played as a Laker with both James and Hachimura off the floor, Goodwin is scoring an outstanding 1.5 DraftKings PPM with an 18% usage rate.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1.
NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Coby White vs. Brooklyn Nets – $7,300
White should operate as the Bulls’ top player with Giddey joining Ball and Dosunmu on the sidelines. With those three guards off the court this season, White’s usage rises 3.8 percentage points to 27.8%, and he supplies 1.2 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool. White has made two starts this season with Giddey, Ball, and Dosunmu inactive this season, and White was awesome with 45.1 DraftKings PPG in those contests.
White warranted a $9,000 price tag for tonight’s situation, and he is a must-play at only $7,300.
Top Value: Kevin Huerter vs. Brooklyn Nets – $4,300
Huerter is another elite value from the depleted Bulls. The ex-King has scored at least 25 DraftKings in five of his last seven games even with Giddey active for all these tilts. With the guard now missing from the equation, Huerter has the potential for over 30 DraftKings points against this struggling Nets team, and he is the top value on the slate.
Our ShotQuality projections are slating Huerter for 32 minutes of action tonight, and for the 10 occasions he has logged over 30 minutes this season, the wing is producing 30.1 DraftKings PPG.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jimmy Butler vs. Sacramento Kings – $7,900
While Jonathan Kuminga (ankle) will return tonight, he should see a small workload with this being his first game since January 4th. Meanwhile, Brandin Podziemski (back) is out, putting more on the plate of Butler. With Podziemski inactive for the last two, Butler has been excellent, scoring 43.75 DraftKings points vs. the Pistons and 52.5 DraftKings vs. the Trail Blazers.
Butler is averaging 1.4 DraftKings PPM with Podziesmki off the floor since joining the Warriors, and Butler is a great contrarian option to attack in GPPs on Thursday.
Top Value: Cameron Johnson vs. Chicago Bulls – $6,100
Johnson is in great form, scoring at least 37 DraftKings points in three straight games. During this span, the forward is leading the Nets with 31.9 minutes per game and is shooting a strong 47.1% on three pointers. Johnson scored 32 DraftKings points in his one start against the Bulls this season, and this time around, Noah Clowney (ankle) will be out for Brooklyn, which should open up a few extra minutes of work for Johnson.
Johnson should exceed 5x value in this spot, and the sharpshooter is a solid mid-tier target for all formats.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $11,700
Not only are the Lakers missing James and Hachimura, but Jaxson Hayes (knee) is also sidelined. The veteran has been starting at center since Anthony Davis was traded, and with Hayes missing, Los Angeles is very thin up front, with Alex Len and Trey Jemison being their only healthy centers. Both players are weak defenders, and Antetokounmpo should feast against the shorthanded Lakers.
The former MVP is leading the NBA with a 35.3% usage rate this season, and Antetokounmpo will be on his home floor, where he is averaging 60.9 DraftKings PPG this season.
Top Value: Wendell Carter Jr. at New Orleans Pelicans – $4,800
Carter Jr. has recorded at least 27 DraftKings points in four of his last six games, and he is the best center value on the slate in this elite spot vs. the Pelicans. New Orleans ranks second-to-last in defensive efficiency, and they have major issues inside, allowing the second-most points in the paint and the third-most rebounds this season.
There isn’t a better matchup for centers in the league, and Carter Jr. should cruise past 5x value. In our ShotQuality projections, the big man is a top-three value on the slate.
