The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at Los Angeles Clippers – $9,600 DraftKings, $10,600 FanDuel
One of the highlights of Thursday’s four-game slate is a fascinating rematch between the Clippers and Thunder, who met on Tuesday. The game is jam-packed with storylines and brings the highest Over/Under on the slate. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander gets a revenge narrative against the team that traded him to OKC, and it should be another chance for him to prove he has truly arrived as an elite play in almost every matchup.
SGA has the highest ceiling projection of all point guards on both DraftKings and FanDuel and the second-highest ceiling projection of any player on the slate. Even at his elevated salary, he has outproduced salary-based expectations in five of his eight most recent games.
On Tuesday against the Clippers, he had 31 points, four assists, and seven rebounds for 44.25 Draftkings points and 41.4 FanDuel points.
The Thunder have been carefully managing his minutes, and he has played just eight games since the All-Star break. In those games, he has averaged 50.9 DraftKings points and 49.8 FanDuel points while producing 1.39 DraftKings points and 1.36 FanDuel points per minute. He has scored at least 29 points in his past eight games and averaged 35.0 points per game over that span.
With that production level, as long as he’s available, he should be the top point guard to build around if you can get his salary to work with the rest of your roster construction.
Top Value: Dennis Smith Jr. at New Orleans Pelicans – $5,100 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel
If you decide to go cheaper at point guard, Smith brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on DraftKings and the highest of any point guard with a salary of $6K or under on FanDuel.
Since the season-ending injury to LaMelo Ball, Smith has stepped into a more active role for the Hornets. His usage rate is 17.6% on the season, but over his nine most recent games, it has increased to 19.9%. He has taken at least 10 shots in five of his past six games, and even though he’s in a shooting slump (3-for-21 over his past two games), the fact that he’s getting the chances indicates potential upside.
Despite the shooting woes of the past few games, he has been producing enough non-scoring numbers to bring a good floor. He’s tallied at least six assists in eight of his past nine games and multiple steals in over half of those contests. Over those nine games, he has averaged 0.95 DraftKings points and 0.96 FanDuel points, which is enough to make him a good play at this price since he’s projected for 26.1 minutes with a 19.1% usage rate in this matchup against New Orleans.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell at Brooklyn Nets – $8,400 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel
Mitchell has the highest ceiling projection of any shooting guard on DraftKings and trails only SGA at the position on FanDuel. He and the Cavs are visiting the Nets in a game that could end up being an Eastern Conference playoff preview. The Cavs currently have the No. 4 seed, while the Nets are the No. 6 seed. Like the Thunder-Clippers matchup, this is also a rematch of a game from Tuesday night.
In his first season with the Cavs, Spida has almost exactly matched his stats from his time in Utah, with a slight increase in scoring and a slight decrease in assists since he’s playing alongside Darius Garland. Mitchell has scored at least 20 points in nine of his 10 most recent contests, averaging 29.4 points, 44 DraftKings points, and 41.8 FanDuel points per game.
On Tuesday, he had 31 points, five boards, and three assists for 42.75 DraftKings points against the Nets. You can see how that matchup played out for Mitchell and the Cavs using our new Game Flow tool:
Top Value: Eric Gordon vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $5,300 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
The Clippers will be playing their first game since losing Paul George (knee) for a few weeks. George landed awkwardly after going up for a rebound on Tuesday and will likely miss the rest of the regular season. His minutes and usage will likely open up several value options for the Clippers, and Gordon is one player likely to get a boost.
In the nine games the Clippers have played in March, Gordon has been very involved, averaging 29.5 minutes per game with a 16.9% usage rate. He has averaged 13.4 points, 20.9 DraftKings points, and 19.6 FanDuel points in those nine games, with a production rate of 0.71 DraftKings points and 0.67 FanDuel points per minute. Those rates get a big bump with George off the floor, though, improving to 0.93 DraftKings points and 0.85 FanDuel points while his usage rate jumps to 23.4%.
Several Clippers will have to step up to fill in while PG13 is sidelined, and Gordon should be one of the best value plays on the board this Thursday. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards on DraftKings and the sixth-highest at the position on FanDuel. He also has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward on DraftKings.
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Kawhi Leonard vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $9,900 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
Without George, Kawhi must step up and carry the Clippers to the postseason. He has shown he can still put up monster games this season, and this looks like the perfect spot for him to step up and deliver another huge stat line. Leonard has the highest ceiling projection on the entire slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel, indicating that even though he’s expensive, he’s actually underpriced.
In his 10 games since the All-Star break, Leonard has a 26.8% usage rate with a production rate of 1.21 DraftKings points and 1.16 FanDuel points per minute. However, with George off the floor, his usage rate jumps to 32.7% over that same span, and his production jumps to 1.39 DraftKings points and 1.36 FanDuel points per minute.
With more workload resting on his shoulders, he should be in a smash spot against the Thunder, and it makes sense to include him as one of your cornerstone building blocks on this limited slate.
Our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations are also bullish on Leonard’s scoring prospects:
Top Value: Jalen Williams at Los Angeles Clippers – $6,700 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel
Williams was the No. 12 overall pick in the 2022 NBA draft and has quickly established himself as a vital piece of the Thunder’s future. He is only a power forward on DraftKings, where he brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position. He’s a shooting guard and small forward on FanDuel, bringing the highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard and the second highest at small forward behind.
Over his past 10 games, Williams has exceeded salary-based expectations seven times with an average Plus/Minus of +9.48 FanDuel points and +7.33 DraftKings points. Over those 10 games, he has averaged 39.5 DraftKings points and 38.7 FanDuel points and produced at a rate of 1.18 DraftKings points and 1.16 FanDuel points per minute.
He had 38.5 DraftKings points and 38.1 FanDuel points while playing 37 minutes against the Clippers on Tuesday, finishing with 20 points, eight rebounds, and three assists. Williams can be a great fit if you are looking for a mid-priced play with upside.
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Julius Randle at Orlando Magic – $9,100 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel
Randle dropped 57 points on the Timberwolves when he was in my picks on Monday, and I’m ready to go back to the well in this juicy matchup against the Magic. He has the second-highest ceiling projection at power forward on both DraftKings and FanDuel, behind only Kahwi.
After his monster game on Monday that resulted in 65.5 DraftKings points and 59.3 FanDuel points, he came back to earth on Wednesday with 36.5 DraftKings points and 34.7 FanDuel points against the Heat. He only had 15 points in that contest but matched his season-high with nine assists.
Randle posted big double-doubles in his first two matchups with Orlando this season, averaging 49.75 DraftKings points and 45.1 FanDuel points.
Top Value: P.J. Washington at New Orleans Pelicans – $6,400 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel
Washington has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward and the highest at center on FanDuel and is in the top eight at both positions on DraftKings.
Since he returned from his sprained right foot eight games ago, Washington has posted a 22.3% usage rate and averaged 27.1 DraftKings points and 25.3 FanDuel points per game. He has taken at least 10 shots in all but one of those games, showing he has the potential for a big game if he can shake off a mini shooting slump from the past two games and take advantage of this matchup with the Pelicans.
Center
Top Ceiling: Evan Mobley at Brooklyn Nets – $7,300 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
Thursday’s slate is a little unusual, with no center ranking in the top 10 for ceiling projection on either FanDuel or DraftKings. Big men pile up fantasy points efficiently, so they typically bring some of the highest ceilings on the board, but the elite options aren’t in action this Thursday. Mobley is the center with the highest ceiling on both DraftKings and FanDuel, who does make sense as an option from the upper end of the mid-tier salary plays.
Mobley had 27.5 DraftKings points and 26.3 FanDuel points on Tuesday against the Nets, but he eclipsed 40 fantasy points in his three prior contests. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his past nine games, averaging a solid 1.08 DraftKings points and 1.06 FanDuel points per minute and playing a team-high 311 minutes over that span with a 21.9% usage rate.
Paying up at center on this slate could be a great way to differentiate your lineup, and Mobley is the option that brings the highest ceiling.
Top Value: Mitchell Robinson at Orlando Magic – $4,600 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel
Robinson brings the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at center on DraftKings and the fourth-highest on FanDuel. He continues to work his way back into a larger role after his extended absence due to a fractured thumb.
On Wednesday night, he had 10 points and eight rebounds, falling just short of a double-double but still finishing with 27.5 DraftKings points and 30.1 FanDuel points in 25 minutes. In his 14 games since returning, he has averaged 24.4 DraftKings points and 23.6 FanDuel points per game. In a soft matchup against Orlando, Robinson should be a strong play, allowing you to pay up and get the stars you want in other roster spots.
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