NBA DFS (Thursday, January 16): Top Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings

Thursday delivers a five-game slate. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.

Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.

You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.

Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.

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NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Top Ceiling: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – $10,500

Gilgeous-Alexander is the No.1 play on the slate in this marquee matchup between the Thunder and Cavaliers, who are the top-two teams in the NBA this season based on record. Gigleous-Alexander finished with 51.25 DraftKings points when these clubs went head-to-head last week, and the superstar should have an even better outing tonight, with this rematch being on his home floor. This season, Gilgeous-Alexander is scoring 1.5 DraftKings PPM with a 33.4% usage rate, and he has been 3.0 DraftKings PPG better on his home floor than when on the road.

This game carries the highest total on the slate (232.5 points), and the Thunder are only favored by 1.5 points. In spreads of five points or less this season, Gilgeous-Alexander is producing 57.1 DraftKings PPG (nine games), via the Trends Tool.


Top Value: Scoot Henderson vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $5,800

Regardless of this being a tough matchup with the Clippers ranking fourth in defensive efficiency, Henderson is a core play for this five-game slate with Deni Avdija (ankle) doubtful and Jerami Grant (face) out. With these two inactive Tuesday vs. the Nets, Henderson started and looked like a former lottery pick, finishing with a career-high 59 DraftKings points across a season-high 38.5 minutes with a team-high 27.8% usage rate.

Henderson should start and see a similar workload tonight, which clearly isn’t reflected in his current salary. Wiith Avdija and Grant off the floor this season, Henderson is generating 1.1 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool.

Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:

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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Top Ceiling: Devin Booker at Washington Wizards – $9,100

Bradley Beal (ankle) is doubtful, and Booker is in a dream matchup vs. the Wizards, who rank dead last in defensive efficiency and fourth in pace. The Suns own the highest implied team total on the slate by a comfortable margin (121.75 points), and Booker is scoring 1.3 DraftKings PPM with Beal off the floor this season, thanks to his usage increasing 1.5 percentage points to 30.8%.

Booker is, without question, the top shooting guard on the slate and should outproduce his price tag.


Top Value: Grayson Allen at Washington Wizards – $4,200

Allen is also an appealing option from the Suns with Beal missing. Allen is averaging 21.7 DraftKings points in 24.8 minutes per game with Beal inactive (seven games), and Allen is red hot right now, shooting 56.3% on three-pointers in his last five games.

Washington is giving up the second-most made three-pointers per game, and Allen is a great, cheap way to attack the Suns’ slate-high implied team total. In our ShotQuality projections, the veteran has a ceiling north of 30 DraftKings points.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1.

 

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Top Ceiling: Norman Powell at Portland Trail Blazers – $7,300

While the Clippers have yet to release their injury report, Kawhi Leonard sitting tonight feels inevitable after he played a season-high 23.5 minutes last night. Our ShotQuality projections are anticipating Leonard to be inactive, and if that is the case, Powell will be a strong target against this Portland defense that ranks 26th in defensive efficiency.

With Leonard inactive this season, Powell is generating 34.8 DraftKings points in 32.9 minutes per game with a 28.4% usage rate. Powell has already faced the Blazers twice without Leonard this season, and he has scored 43 DraftKings points in each matchup.


Top Value: Lu Dort vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – $4,000

At this low salary, Dort is a strong, affordable way to gain another share of this elite setting between the Thunder and Cavaliers. The wing posted 23.5 DraftKings points across 33.5 minutes when these two teams met last week. Oklahoma City will be without Isaiah Hartenstien (calf) this time around and let’s not forget Chet Holmgren (hip) remains sidelined.

Dort should see 30-35 minutes with the Thunder shorthanded and out produce this low salary. In spreads of five points or less this season, Dort is amassing 21.7 DraftKings PPG (nine games), via the Trends Tool.


NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Top Ceiling: Jalen Williams vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – $8,000

Continuing with depleted Thunder, Williams is one of the best spends on the board tonight. The forward had no issues facing the Cavaliers and their No.10 ranked defense last week, posting 52.25 DraftKings points across 35.5 minutes. As noted above, both Hartenstien and Holmgren are out tonight, and in the five games these two have missed this season, Williams has been a stud with 50.6 DraftKings PPG.

The absences of Hartenstien and Holmgren will result in Williams playing some center, which naturally boosts his rebounding numbers. Williams has 50-DraftKings point upside tonight and can be rostered with full confidence.


Top Value: Kyle Kuzma vs. Phoenix Suns – $6,100

Kuzma finally looked like himself again this past Monday, delivering 42.75 DraftKings points across 35.3 minutes in a tough matchup vs. the Timberwolves, who rank sixth in defensive efficiency. This was the most playing time Kuzma has seen since October, which is a very encouraging sign that he is back to full strength. Now, after the strong performance against Minnesota, Kuzma is in a much easier spot tonight vs. the Suns, who rank 25th in defensive efficiency.

Plus, Malcolm Brogdon (foot) remains out for Washington, and with him off the floor this season, Kuzma’s usage increases by 1.5 percentage points to 28.2%. In this situation, Kuzma should have no issues surpassing 5x value.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Top Ceiling: Alperen Sengun at Sacramento Kings – $8,900

Sengun posted 44.5 DraftKings points in his lone meeting with the Kings last month, and he has scored at least 46.75 DraftKings points in three of his past four starts, which has been attributed to the absence of Jabari Smith Jr. (hand). The forward will remain out tonight, and with Smith Jr. off the floor this season, Sengun’s usage jumps 3.9 percentage points to 31.4%, and he provides 1.5 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool.

This game should be competitive throughout, with Sacramento only favored by 4.5 points, and Sengun is underpriced for his upside.


Top Value: Jaylin Williams vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – $3,300

After missing the five games the Thunder were without both Hartenstien and Holmgren earlier this season, Williams is now healthy and should receive 20-25 minutes tonight with his team short on big men. Particularly, going against a Cavaliers team that starts two natural big men in Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, the Thunder need Williams’ size in this matchup.

Williams is collecting 1.1 DraftKings PPM this season, and he has been productive when given a sizable role. Williams has exceeded the 20-minute threshold twice this season, first with 26 DraftKings vs. the Hornets last month and then with 32.75 DraftKings points vs. the Wizards this past Sunday. Cleveland is a tougher matchup than both these squads, but nevertheless, Williams should destroy his near minimum salary with an expanded role tonight and is an elite punt play, regardless if he starts or not. In our ShotQuality projections, Williams is the No.1 value on the slate by a mile.

Thursday delivers a five-game slate. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.

Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS, going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.

You can also use our SimLabs Lineup Generator, a tool that creates the most user-friendly lineup generation process.

Note: Projections, Ownership projections, and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials
 

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Top Ceiling: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – $10,500

Gilgeous-Alexander is the No.1 play on the slate in this marquee matchup between the Thunder and Cavaliers, who are the top-two teams in the NBA this season based on record. Gigleous-Alexander finished with 51.25 DraftKings points when these clubs went head-to-head last week, and the superstar should have an even better outing tonight, with this rematch being on his home floor. This season, Gilgeous-Alexander is scoring 1.5 DraftKings PPM with a 33.4% usage rate, and he has been 3.0 DraftKings PPG better on his home floor than when on the road.

This game carries the highest total on the slate (232.5 points), and the Thunder are only favored by 1.5 points. In spreads of five points or less this season, Gilgeous-Alexander is producing 57.1 DraftKings PPG (nine games), via the Trends Tool.


Top Value: Scoot Henderson vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $5,800

Regardless of this being a tough matchup with the Clippers ranking fourth in defensive efficiency, Henderson is a core play for this five-game slate with Deni Avdija (ankle) doubtful and Jerami Grant (face) out. With these two inactive Tuesday vs. the Nets, Henderson started and looked like a former lottery pick, finishing with a career-high 59 DraftKings points across a season-high 38.5 minutes with a team-high 27.8% usage rate.

Henderson should start and see a similar workload tonight, which clearly isn’t reflected in his current salary. Wiith Avdija and Grant off the floor this season, Henderson is generating 1.1 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool.

Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:

a

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Top Ceiling: Devin Booker at Washington Wizards – $9,100

Bradley Beal (ankle) is doubtful, and Booker is in a dream matchup vs. the Wizards, who rank dead last in defensive efficiency and fourth in pace. The Suns own the highest implied team total on the slate by a comfortable margin (121.75 points), and Booker is scoring 1.3 DraftKings PPM with Beal off the floor this season, thanks to his usage increasing 1.5 percentage points to 30.8%.

Booker is, without question, the top shooting guard on the slate and should outproduce his price tag.


Top Value: Grayson Allen at Washington Wizards – $4,200

Allen is also an appealing option from the Suns with Beal missing. Allen is averaging 21.7 DraftKings points in 24.8 minutes per game with Beal inactive (seven games), and Allen is red hot right now, shooting 56.3% on three-pointers in his last five games.

Washington is giving up the second-most made three-pointers per game, and Allen is a great, cheap way to attack the Suns’ slate-high implied team total. In our ShotQuality projections, the veteran has a ceiling north of 30 DraftKings points.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1.

 

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Top Ceiling: Norman Powell at Portland Trail Blazers – $7,300

While the Clippers have yet to release their injury report, Kawhi Leonard sitting tonight feels inevitable after he played a season-high 23.5 minutes last night. Our ShotQuality projections are anticipating Leonard to be inactive, and if that is the case, Powell will be a strong target against this Portland defense that ranks 26th in defensive efficiency.

With Leonard inactive this season, Powell is generating 34.8 DraftKings points in 32.9 minutes per game with a 28.4% usage rate. Powell has already faced the Blazers twice without Leonard this season, and he has scored 43 DraftKings points in each matchup.


Top Value: Lu Dort vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – $4,000

At this low salary, Dort is a strong, affordable way to gain another share of this elite setting between the Thunder and Cavaliers. The wing posted 23.5 DraftKings points across 33.5 minutes when these two teams met last week. Oklahoma City will be without Isaiah Hartenstien (calf) this time around and let’s not forget Chet Holmgren (hip) remains sidelined.

Dort should see 30-35 minutes with the Thunder shorthanded and out produce this low salary. In spreads of five points or less this season, Dort is amassing 21.7 DraftKings PPG (nine games), via the Trends Tool.


NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Top Ceiling: Jalen Williams vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – $8,000

Continuing with depleted Thunder, Williams is one of the best spends on the board tonight. The forward had no issues facing the Cavaliers and their No.10 ranked defense last week, posting 52.25 DraftKings points across 35.5 minutes. As noted above, both Hartenstien and Holmgren are out tonight, and in the five games these two have missed this season, Williams has been a stud with 50.6 DraftKings PPG.

The absences of Hartenstien and Holmgren will result in Williams playing some center, which naturally boosts his rebounding numbers. Williams has 50-DraftKings point upside tonight and can be rostered with full confidence.


Top Value: Kyle Kuzma vs. Phoenix Suns – $6,100

Kuzma finally looked like himself again this past Monday, delivering 42.75 DraftKings points across 35.3 minutes in a tough matchup vs. the Timberwolves, who rank sixth in defensive efficiency. This was the most playing time Kuzma has seen since October, which is a very encouraging sign that he is back to full strength. Now, after the strong performance against Minnesota, Kuzma is in a much easier spot tonight vs. the Suns, who rank 25th in defensive efficiency.

Plus, Malcolm Brogdon (foot) remains out for Washington, and with him off the floor this season, Kuzma’s usage increases by 1.5 percentage points to 28.2%. In this situation, Kuzma should have no issues surpassing 5x value.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Top Ceiling: Alperen Sengun at Sacramento Kings – $8,900

Sengun posted 44.5 DraftKings points in his lone meeting with the Kings last month, and he has scored at least 46.75 DraftKings points in three of his past four starts, which has been attributed to the absence of Jabari Smith Jr. (hand). The forward will remain out tonight, and with Smith Jr. off the floor this season, Sengun’s usage jumps 3.9 percentage points to 31.4%, and he provides 1.5 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool.

This game should be competitive throughout, with Sacramento only favored by 4.5 points, and Sengun is underpriced for his upside.


Top Value: Jaylin Williams vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – $3,300

After missing the five games the Thunder were without both Hartenstien and Holmgren earlier this season, Williams is now healthy and should receive 20-25 minutes tonight with his team short on big men. Particularly, going against a Cavaliers team that starts two natural big men in Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, the Thunder need Williams’ size in this matchup.

Williams is collecting 1.1 DraftKings PPM this season, and he has been productive when given a sizable role. Williams has exceeded the 20-minute threshold twice this season, first with 26 DraftKings vs. the Hornets last month and then with 32.75 DraftKings points vs. the Wizards this past Sunday. Cleveland is a tougher matchup than both these squads, but nevertheless, Williams should destroy his near minimum salary with an expanded role tonight and is an elite punt play, regardless if he starts or not. In our ShotQuality projections, Williams is the No.1 value on the slate by a mile.

About the Author

Alex Hunter is an avid DFS player who produces NFL and NBA content for FantasyLabs. He has been playing DFS for nearly a decade, dating back to the DraftStreet days and has been in the fantasy/betting content business for over eight years. Alex earned his bachelor’s degree in communications at Worcester State University and has contributed content for some of the biggest outlets in the industry, such as DraftKings Network, Stokastic (formerly Awesemo) and RotoWire, covering NBA, NFL and PGA. Alex is a data-driven analyst that has multiple wins and high finishes in GPPs on his DFS resume, as well as years of being a successful cash-game player. If you have any questions or need any lineup advice, Alex can be found @Hunta512 on Twitter.