For Friday night, DraftKings’ main slate will feature the first six games of the night, while FanDuel’s main slate will feature all 10 of the games on the calendar. Due to note that this article only focuses on the first six games of the night, given these players can rostered on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Washington Wizards – $10,900 DraftKings, $11,400 FanDuel
Gilgeous-Alexander shined in an impressive 22-point blowout win over the Clippers last night, posting 54.5 DraftKings points against his former club. After facing this Los Angeles team that ranks 13th in defensive efficiency and 24th in pace, Gilgeous-Alexander gets arguably the best matchup he could ask for, with the Wizards ranking first in pace and 27th in defensive efficiency. Furthermore, Washington is playing their second game in two nights.
The Thunder carry the highest implied team total on the slate in this dream spot (127.75 points) and this game’s total is the second largest on the board (240.5 points), via FantasyLabs’ Vegas page. Gilgeous-Alexander recorded 54.5 DraftKings points in his first meeting of the season with the Wizards last month, and the Kentucky product has erupted for over 60 DraftKings points in four of his last seven starts that have come in a total of at least 240 points. Gilgeous-Alexander is a strong bet to lead this slate in fantasy points and is worth building around tonight.
Top Value: Tyus Jones at Oklahoma City Thunder – $6,100 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel
Opposite of Gilgeous-Alexander, Jones needs to be considered tonight. The Wizards have been relying on the veteran heavily recently, with Jones logging 34.4 minutes per game in his last five – which is a notable upgrade from his 29 minutes per game average for the season – resulting in 42.2 DraftKings PPG during this span. The Thunder are a top-five defense this season, but both of these clubs rank inside the top 12 in pace, and this tilt carries the second-highest total on the slate (240.5 points).
Jones finished with 38 DraftKings points when he faced Oklahoma City last month and brings similar upside tonight.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell at Philadelphia 76ers – $9,500 DraftKings, $10,100 FanDuel
Mitchell (illness) missed last night’s loss to the Magic vs. the Magic but feels likely to suit up tonight after the guard was able to participate in the shootaround yesterday. If Mitchell suits up as expected, he will be an elite GPP target, given most DFS players are expected to overlook him – according to FantasyLabs’ projections, Mitchell is expected to be less than 3% owned on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
The 27-year-old looked terrific before the All-Star break, scoring over 50 DraftKings points in four of his last five starts, including a 56.5 DraftKings point performance vs. the same 76ers’ team he will face tonight. Philadelphia is on the second leg of a back-to-back after losing to the Knicks last night and their defense ranks third-to-last in the league since losing Joel Embiid (knee) nine games ago. With some extra rest on his side after sitting last night, the Cavs should rely on Mitchell if he suits up tonight and he could be a real game-changer in GPPs.
Top Value: Eric Gordon at Houston Rockets – $4,800 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel
With Bradley Beal (hamstring) expected to miss his third straight game tonight, Gordon is an appealing value play despite this tough matchup vs. the Rockets, who rank sixth in defensive efficiency. Beal exited after only five minutes three games ago, and Gordon has started in each of these last two with Beal sidelined.
During this three-game stretch with the shooting guard injured, Gordon has been efficient, producing 28.8 DraftKings PPG while shooting 45.5% from beyond the arc. The veteran supplies 0.8 DraftKings PPM with Beal off the court and should be able to grind out over 5x value tonight as a member of the Suns’ starting lineup.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Scottie Barnes at Atlanta Hawks – $8,800 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel
Barnes has been a stud vs. the Hawks this season, providing 46.5 DraftKings PPG in three matchups, and comes into this final matchup with the club in outstanding form, generating 48.9 DraftKings PPG in his last five starts. Atlanta ranks second-to-last in defensive efficiency and third in pace, and this contest’s total is the highest on the slate by nearly five points (245 points).
Barnes has eclipsed 50 DraftKings points four of the six times he has competed in a total of at least 240 points this season and is simply too cheap for that type of upside.
Top Value: Royce O’Neale at Houston Rockets – $4,100 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
Just like Gordon, O’Neale is a value play that has to be considered, with Beal unlikely to play, regardless of this ugly matchup in Houston. With Beal essentially unavailable for the last three, O’Neale has been a great contributor off the bench for the Suns, amassing 28.8 DraftKings points in 27.7 minutes per game. Albeit a limited sample of 87 minutes, the veteran is producing 1.1 DraftKings PPM with Beal off the floor since he joined the Suns via trade a few weeks ago, via the On/Off Tool.
O’Neale’s salaries clearly don’t reflect this type of production or the role he will see with Beal sidelined, and he is the best punt on the board tonight.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Evan Mobley at Philadelphia 76ers – $7,000 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel
Following the All-Star Break, Mobley wasn’t under a minutes restriction last night, and he finished with 40.5 DraftKings points across 34 minutes in a difficult matchup vs. the Magic, who rank fourth in defensive efficiency. Mobley should continue to see over 30 minutes on a nightly basis going forward, and this is a much easier spot for him tonight, going against the Embiid-less 76ers, who, as noted above, rank third-to-last in defensive rating since the reigning MVP got hurt nine games ago.
Mobley is amassing 41.8 DraftKings PPG in two meetings with Philadelphia this season – which is an impressive average, considering Embiid was active for one of these tilts – and is underpriced for being back to full strength.
Top Value: Lamar Stevens vs. Los Angeles Clippers – $3,900 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel
Stevens has provided a strong veteran presence for this depleted Grizzlies’ team and should receive a solid workload off the bench for the rest of the season. In his first three games since joining Memphis, Stevens has generated 24.5 DraftKings points in 25.1 minutes per game.
The 26-year-old scores 1.0 DraftKings PPM this season and should be able to surpass 20 DraftKings points for the fourth straight game against this Clippers’ team that is playing their second game in two nights and ranks third-to-last in defensive efficiency over their last three games.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Chet Holmgren vs. Washington Wizards – $7,600 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel
Holmgren should feast in this dream spot vs. the Wizards. In addition to their weak defense and fast pace, Washington is yielding the most rebounds and second most points in the paint. The rookie posted 49.5 DraftKings points vs. Washington last month and just recorded 41.5 DraftKings points vs. the Clippers last night.
Holmgren shouldn’t disappoint tonight and is an excellent value at these price points.
Top Value: Bruno Fernando vs. Toronto Raptors – $4,400 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
Fernando will move back to the bench with Clint Capela (adductor) returning tonight, but the latter will be on a minutes restriction, and Fernando should see over 20 minutes of work as Capela’s backup with Onyeka Okongwu (toe) out. Fernando collected 1.13 DraftKings PPM this season, and with 25.6 minutes in the Hawks’ final tilt before the All-Star break last Wednesday, the veteran finished with 26.5 DraftKings points vs. the Hornets.
Despite coming off the bench, Fernando has the potential for a similar performance tonight vs. this Raptors defense that ranks 23rd in efficiency and is an appealing, cheap way to gain another share of this slate-high total (245 points).
