Monday features Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs at 8:30 p.m. ET. The Thunder are listed as 6.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 219.5 points.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
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Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
The Spurs closed out the Timberwolves in convincing fashion, winning Games 5 and 6 by an average of 29.5 points. They are 8-3 in the postseason with a +159 point differential. The Spurs will now enter the Western Conference Finals as a sizable +210 series underdog against the defending NBA champions.
It has been an eventful postseason for Spurs superstar Victor Wembanyama. He had an injury that made him miss a game, was ejected for a nasty elbow, and posted a triple-double, including a postseason-record 12 blocks. Priced at $1,000 more than the next player, Wembanyama is in a class of his own tonight.
In the eight games that Wembanyama was not either hurt or ejected, he averaged 24.3 points, 12.4 rebounds, five blocks, and 56.3 DraftKings points per game. Despite his Captain salary being $18,000, Wembanyama is drawing a slate-high 25% projected ownership. He is the best Captain play on the slate.
The Thunder have had no stress in their first two series, sweeping both the Suns and Lakers by an average of 16.6 points per game. They are heavily favored in this Western Conference Finals series and have a great chance to go back-to-back. Being a 6.5-point favorite, they are projected to score 113 points.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was announced as the regular-season MVP award winner for the second straight year. His fantasy production this postseason has been consistent, but he lacks the elite ceiling that Wembanyama can provide. Gilgeous-Alexander is still drawing around 20% projected ownership at the Captain position.
In four games against the Spurs, Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 29.5 points per game while shooting 50.6% from the field. The Spurs had the third-best defensive rating during the season and are leading the playoffs with a 102.2 defensive rating. This is a difficult spot, but Gilgeous-Alexander has found success.
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NBA DFS Mid-Range Picks
Leading the mid-range pricing tier is Thunder big man Chet Holmgren. In his third postseason, Holmgren has looked much more comfortable. He is averaging a career playoff-best 18.6 points and 9.1 rebounds per game, while shooting 60% from the field and 38.7% from downtown. He has two double-doubles.
With an elevated salary, Holmgren’s projected ownership at the Captain and utility position is low, making him a contrarian pay-up option. Holmgren and Wembanyama have a history of not liking each other, and that has hurt Holmgren. He is only averaging 10.5 points per game and shooting 38.7% from the field against the Spurs this season. The Spurs and Wembanyama make this a difficult matchup for Holmgren.
The biggest news of Game 1 is the status of Thunder forward Jalen Williams. After missing six playoff games, Williams is expected to be back tonight with no restrictions. Williams is projected to play 32 minutes with a 25% usage rate. He averaged over 20 points per game in his first two playoff appearances.
Williams has flip-flopped with Holmgren in salary, but they both feel too expensive since they are battling for the second-best option on the Thunder. This is a situation where it makes the Thunder better but makes both players limited in ceiling fantasy points. Williams is the preferred of the two, but this is a tough spot.
The Timberwolves changed their game plan in Game 6, which came back to bite them when sharpshooter Stephon Castle caught fire from behind the arc early. Castle made five of his seven 3-point attempts and finished with 32 points, 11 rebounds, and six assists. He recorded a playoff-high 57.8 DraftKings points.
Projected to play 34 minutes with a 25% usage rate, Castle is drawing the third-highest Captain ownership at 12%. Castle has increased his scoring by over three points per game from the regular season to the postseason and is shooting a blistering 44% from long distance. He is a fantastic mid-range play tonight.
Second-year pro Ajay Mitchell will likely go back to the bench in favor of Jalen Williams in the starting lineup. However, in his six postseason starts, Mitchell was incredible, averaging an impressive 21.2 points and 36.4 DraftKings points per game. He is going to be difficult to keep on the bench playing this well.
Mitchell has been the go-to player over their last two games. He accumulated over 45 DraftKings points in both games while shooting 61.1% from the field with seven steals and one points-and-assists double-double. Even coming off the bench now, Mitchell is still intriguing at his sub-20% projected ownership.
De’Aaron Fox is questionable to play tonight due to an ankle injury, but he played through the injury last game and had a near double-double with 21 points and nine assists in only 24 minutes. At the utility position, Fox has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus and is drawing 50% projected ownership.
Outside of the last game, Fox struggled shooting the ball against the Timberwolves’ long defenders. In his first five games, he shot a putrid 38.3% from the field. However, against the Thunder during the regular season, Fox averaged 17.2 points and 6.2 assists per game while shooting 53.2% from the field.
Consistently playing 25+ minutes a night in a starting role, Isaiah Hartenstein has value at his $7,000 price tag. Over his last five games, Hartenstein has been incredibly consistent, averaging a near double-double with 10.6 points and 9.8 rebounds per game. He has posted 26+ DraftKings points in each game.
Not only has Hartenstein been a monster on the glass and scoring in the paint, but his defense has taken another leap forward. He has at least one steal in each of his last seven games and has seven blocks in eight playoff games. Even playing alongside Williams, Hartenstein is a strong value play in all formats.
It is only a matter of time until rookie Dylan Harper takes over the lead guard position for the Spurs. In his last three games, Harper is averaging 17 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 32.3 DraftKings points per game with one double-double. He is shooting 65.5% from the field and has made all 11 free throw attempts.
Due to his recent play, Harper has seen his salary increase rapidly. The salary increase is the main reason why Harper is currently drawing around 15% projected ownership. Despite coming off the bench, Harper is my favorite player to take a chance on at this ownership. He is not even a bad option for a cheap Captain.
Staying in the Spurs’ backcourt, Devin Vassell is the starting small forward and provides a level of consistency that is worth targeting. He is going to play well over 30 minutes and has a great chance to score 25+ DraftKings points. Vassell has been able to capture fantasy points on both ends of the court.
Vassell is one of the Spurs’ premier perimeter shooters. He averaged over two 3-pointers per game against the Timberwolves last series, with seven steals and three blocks in six games. He has scored double-digit points in all 11 playoff games. His usage rate is low, but he plays enough to pay off his salary.
Julian Champagnie is yet another Spurs player who is consistent in his fantasy production. He has two steals in five straight games and leads the Spurs with 2.5 made 3-pointers per game in the postseason while shooting 45.2% from long distance. Champagnie is drawing 25% projected ownership tonight.
Defending the 3-point line has been one of the Thunder’s biggest problems this postseason. They are allowing opponents to make 12 3-pointers per game at 36%, which is the most by far of any of the remaining four teams. This is a great series and matchup for Champagnie to get hot from the perimeter.
Cason Wallace was nonexistent in 19 minutes last game for the Thunder, recording only three points and two rebounds for 7.5 DraftKings points. However, in his previous four games, Wallace averaged 10.8 points and accumulated over 20 DraftKings points in each contest. He has value at his $4,800 price tag.
Wallace is the Thunder’s version of Champagnie. He is averaging two made 3-pointers per game in his last six games while shooting 54.5% from long distance. The matchup on the perimeter is not nearly as good for the Thunder, but Wallace will still have plenty of opportunity to return value at his salary tonight.
Keldon Johnson is a boom-or-bust fantasy option that has seen his salary hover around $4,400. His last two games are a perfect example of his fantasy outlook. Last game, Johnson was a bust with only three DraftKings points in 10 minutes. In his previous game, he erupted for 21 points and 29 DraftKings points.
Johnson is one of the few Spurs players who has had success against the Thunder during the regular season. In his five games, Johnson averaged 14.2 points and 4.6 rebounds per game, while shooting 52.7% from the field and 46.2% from behind the arc. He averaged 2.4 3-pointers per game against them.
NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Alex Caruso ($4,000): Caruso drawing fewer than 10% ownership at this cheap salary feels way too low. He did take a massive leap with Jalen Williams out of the lineup, but Caruso provides fantasy upside on both ends of the court. He has seven steals in his last three games and has averaged 19.6 DraftKings points in his last six games. Even if his production dips a little bit, he is a strong value.
- Luguentz Dort ($3,600): Dort has made two 3-pointers in three of his last four games but rarely finds any scoring potential outside of his perimeter shot. Mainly known for his intense on-ball defense, he doesn’t capture many defensive stats. He is a stay-away for me even at his $3,600 salary.
- Luke Kornet ($3,000): Kornet is questionable for Game 1, but it is difficult to see him not suiting up. In the Spurs’ Game 6 clincher, Kornet had six points, six rebounds, and four blocks in only 14 minutes. He has displayed an upside worth targeting with and without Wembanyama. The Thunder frontcourt is also big enough to force the Spurs to counter with Kornet in the non-Wembanyama minutes.
- Jared McCain ($2,800): McCain was barely playing prior to the Williams injury, but his perimeter shooting is going to get him playing time in this series. Against the Lakers, McCain shot a scorching 12-for-19 from behind the arc and averaged 15.3 DraftKings points per game. He is projected to play less than 10 minutes, but the Thunder have to give him playing time given how well he is shooting.
- Isaiah Joe ($2,400): Joe was a no-show last game, in his seven minutes only contributing one assist. He is a boom-or-bust option that comes down to how he shoots from downtown. 85% of his field goal attempts have come from a distance, but the concern is his playing time with Williams back.
- Carter Bryant ($2,000): Bryant recorded double-digit DraftKings points in back-to-back games but will only play around 10 minutes in a competitive game, which tonight is expected to be. He can provide fantasy points in a variety of ways, but he is difficult to justify even at his cheap price tag.
- Jaylin Williams ($1,600): Williams was nonexistent in the Thunder’s Game 4 victory over the Lakers, recording 1.2 DraftKings points. However, in the previous eight playoff games, Williams averaged 13.7 DraftKings points per game. Williams has the highest projected Plus/Minus among the value options and is drawing a slate-high 65% projected ownership at the utility position tonight.
- Harrison Barnes ($1,200): Barnes has played in all 11 games and averaged nearly 10 minutes per game. However, his only two double-digit DraftKings points games came in 30+ point blowouts. He is priced near the minimum, which is intriguing for a stars and scrubs lineup build, but Barnes is risky.
Pictured: Victor Wembanyama
Photo Credit: Imagn
