Looking to close out their first-round series in Game 6, the Golden State Warriors are 5.5-point home favorites against the Houston Rockets after losing last game. The total for this contest sits at only 206.5 points, so expect a low-scoring game environment, especially considering this is a close-out game.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check this article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
Despite back-to-back poor performances, Stephen Curry still leads this showdown in projected ceiling and usage rate at 29.4%. Curry has uncharacteristically averaged 26.75 DraftKings points in his last two games while shooting 40% from the field and 29.4% from behind the arc. The Rockets have had a great game plan defending Curry, limiting him to only 25 total field goal attempts in back-to-back games.
A bounce-back game from Curry is expected tonight, but his recent performances make him more of a tournament option than a cash-game play. The Rockets have forced Curry to increase his peripherals, with his scoring slightly down from the regular season. However, he is still a top-tier option at the captain position and a fantastic flex play. There is plenty of value to get exposure to Curry in this close-out game.
Right behind Curry in salary and projected ceiling is Rockets’ center Alperen Sengun. The versatile big man has posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of the five games in this series. He leads the Rockets in points, rebounds, assists, and steals per game this postseason with three double-doubles. Sengun leads this showdown slate in projected ownership at both the captain (27%) and flex (60%) positions.
The matchup for Sengun has been one to exploit against a smaller Warriors frontcourt. He also averaged a points and rebounds double-double against the Warriors during the regular season. In this series the Warriors have a 46.7% rebounding percentage, which is the third-lowest among the 16 playoff teams. Sengun is the most popular play in this game by a comfortable margin and needs to be prioritized.
The Warriors were down 76-49 at halftime of Game 5, so a majority of their starters did not play a full workload. Jimmy Butler, who is coming off an injury, only played 25 minutes and was unproductive, shooting just 2-for-10 from the field. However, when getting a full workload of minutes, Butler has had four great games in this series already, averaging 30 points and 51.9 DraftKings points per game.
Butler is drawing slightly lower ownership than Curry but is $1,400 cheaper and has honestly been better than Curry from a fantasy perspective in the playoffs thus far. Since Butler joined the Warriors at the trade deadline, they are 26-10 with the eighth-best offensive rating in the league. He is a cheaper way to get exposure to the Warriors’ offense than Curry and has displayed ceiling performances in this series.
The last stud to target and player priced at $10,000 or higher is Rockets’ second-year pro Amen Thompson. Known for his elite defense, Thompson has taken a major leap from year one to this year. During the regular season, Thompson averaged a near double-double, stuffing the stat sheet with 14.1 points, 8.2 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.3 blocks per game, while shooting 55.7% from the field.
Most of Thompson’s energy in this series has been chasing around Curry, but he is still averaging 14.4 points per game and shooting 50%. In a must-win Game 5, Thompson dominated with 25 points, six rebounds, five steals, three assists, and three blocks, accumulating 52 DraftKings points. He shot 8-for-12 from the field and 8-for-9 from the free-throw line. A repeat performance would be ideal in this spot.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Mid-Range Picks
After Game 3, where Jalen Green got into a heated exchange with the Warriors, he has seen his playing time drastically drop. In back-to-back games, Green has averaged 26.5 minutes per game and is simply overpriced tonight. He did have a 38-point outburst in Game 2 so he is capable of breaking the slate, but there is a reason Green is drawing less than 5% ownership at the flex position. Green is the ultimate contrarian option, but it is difficult to justify his salary with his recent playing time and fantasy output.
Brandin Podziemski is another boom-or-bust fantasy option. His fantasy range in this postseason has been zero to nearly 50 DraftKings points. Podziemski’s playing time has also fluctuated based on his performance, which is valuable for tournaments. If his shot is falling and he is making the right reads, the Warriors will give him all of the minutes that he can handle. Drawing around 20% projected ownership at the flex position, Podziemski is a viable option in the mid-range tonight at his $8,200 price tag.
Right below Podziemski in salary is Draymond Green, who has resorted to being more of a pest than a fantasy contributor in this series. He has only one game where he barely eclipsed 30 DraftKings points and is averaging 21.5 DraftKings points per game in his five games. Green has only exceeded salary-based expectations once in this series, so it is difficult to prioritize him in this spot. He is more than capable of stuffing the stat sheet in a variety of ways, but there are other better and cheaper options around him.
Veteran Fred VanVleet is one of three players who is projected to play 40 minutes tonight. He has played 40+ minutes in every game but the last one, when the Rockets were up big. VanVleet still recorded 26 points and 33.75 DraftKings points in his 33 minutes played. VanVleet is arguably the best play in this mid-range. He has been very consistent and playing enough to easily return value at his $7,600 salary. If the Rockets are going to bring this series back to Game 7 in Houston, VanVleet will need to have a big game.
Dillon Brooks is in a pricing tier of his own at $6,200. No other player is within $1,000 of Brooks, which makes him an intriguing option. Through the first five games, Brooks is averaging 15 points per game and has double-digit points in every game. He has also made at least two 3-pointers in 12 of his last 13 games, which boosts his floor. Similar to VanVleet, Brooks brings a veteran presence to this young Rockets team and has been consistent in his fantasy production. He is another strong mid-range value option tonight.
Tari Eason has not lived up to expectations despite his mom going to Twitter and saying he would be the second-best player for the Warriors. Eason has averaged 20 minutes off the bench in this series but has only scored double-digit points in one game. His salary has plummeted due to his recent play, but even at $5,000, it is difficult to prioritize him in Game 6. Eason is drawing the second-lowest ownership on this showdown slate at 9%. There are many players priced under him with a higher projected ceiling.
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NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Jabari Smith Jr. ($4,200): Similar to Eason, Jabari Smith Jr. is another Rockets bench player in his third year trying to find his way. He has a higher projected ceiling than Eason but is $800 cheaper. Smith Jr. needs more opportunity. He is only playing 22.4 minutes per game off the bench in this series but is shooting 52% from the field and 43.7% from behind the arc. His outlook is on the rise.
- Buddy Hield ($3,800): Drawing a slate-high 63% projected ownership is Warriors’ sharpshooter Buddy Hield. In his first year with the Warriors, Hield shot 37% from behind the arc, connecting on 2.5 3-pointers made per game. He has carried that over into the postseason, where Hield has 15+ points and 30 DraftKings points in two of his last three games. Hield is easily the best value option.
- Quinten Post ($3,200): Warriors’ backup center Quinten Post has displayed his value, especially in games 2, 3, and 4. In each of those contests, Post recorded either double-digit points or rebounds. Nearly 65% of his field goal attempts have come from behind the arc in this series. Capable of letting it fly and crashing the glass, Post is a fantastic value play that is projected to play 18 minutes tonight.
- Steven Adams ($3,000): Rockets’ veteran center Steven Adams has posted 20+ DraftKings points in three of the five games in this series. Priced at $3,000, that is more than enough to pay off his salary. Adams does most of his damage on the glass but is a capable scorer and has attempted 12 free throws through the five games. Adams’ toughness is needed defensively and he is simply too cheap.
- Moses Moody ($2,800): The main player who kept Game 5 in reach was Warriors’ shooting guard Moses Moody. He shot 9-for-18 from the field, 3-for-7 from behind the arc, and made all four of his free-throw attempts for 25 points. Moody also chipped in nine rebounds, accumulating 46.75 DraftKings points. That performance may have awarded him more playing time for tonight’s Game 6.
- Gary Payton II ($2,400): One of the most consistent value players in this series has been guard Gary Payton II. He has posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of the five games while averaging 14.1 DraftKings points per game. Projected to play 15 minutes with a 17% usage rate, Payton is worth getting exposure to at his cheap salary of $2,400. He is projected for a respectable 25% ownership.
- Kevon Looney ($1,200): Last, but not least, is Warriors’ big man Kevon Looney. It has been an up-and-down series for Looney, but he has displayed an upside that is worth targeting at his extremely cheap $1,200 price tag. Only target Looney in a stars and scrubs lineup build, but he is projected to play 10 minutes and has posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of his last four games of this series.
