The Eastern Conference Finals continue on Thursday night in New York City after a dramatic Game 1. The Knicks rallied to get the win at home as the Cavaliers struggled after opening a large lead early in the game. Now, the Knicks are looking to take a commanding 2-0 series lead before the series shifts to Cleveland, while the Cavaliers are trying to make up for one that got away by still salvaging a split and seizing homecourt advantage. Let’s take a closer look at this standalone Game 2 matchup from a DFS fantasy basketball Showdown perspective to help you build your lineup for Thursday’s contests on DraftKings.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
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Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
In both the FantasyLabs projections and the ShotQuality projections, Karl-Anthony Towns has the highest median, floor, and ceiling projections for Game 2. He also has the top Plus/Minus projection in a UTIL spot, making him the best stud option on the board, according to both sets of projections.
Towns had 13 points and 13 rebounds in 40 minutes in Game 1, producing 39.25 DraftKings points. While that total isn’t overwhelming, he has stepped up across the playoffs so far, averaging 45.2 DraftKings points per game in his 11 postseason contests, including four games over 50 DraftKings points. He had a pair of triple-doubles against the Hawks and has eight double-doubles in his last nine contests.
The big man brings a high ceiling and a high floor in his heavily involved role, and he has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last nine games coming into this contest.
His teammate Jalen Brunson is slightly more expensive, with projections just below KAT for the most part. He went off in Game 1 to lead New York’s comeback, finishing with 38 points, six assists, and 58.25 DraftKings points. Brunson is averaging an impressive 43.3 DraftKings points per game in the playoffs with over 50 DraftKings points in three contests, including two of his last three.
While Brunson hasn’t been quite as statistically productive as Towns, he has proven that he can step up and produce a monster game if the Knicks need him to carry the offense. He logged a massive 46 minutes in the series opener and has consistently carried a heavy workload while the Knicks have reeled off eight straight wins. Game 1 took a frenetic comeback to get the win, but Brunson will hope to get more support from the rest of the Knicks’ lineup in Game 2.
For the Cavs, the fantasy production starts with the big three of James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, and Evan Mobley. Harden, Mitchell, and Mobley round out the top five in ceiling, median, and floor projections, and they also fall in line behind Towns and Brunson in Plus/Minus projections at UTIL.
Mobley actually has the most value since he’s cheaper than Harden and Mitchell and is coming off at least 44 DraftKings points in four of his last five games. He had 15 points, 14 rebounds, and 44 DraftKings points in Game 1. He has been excellent in the last few games for the Cavs and also has the potential for even more if Mitchell and Harden prioritize getting him the ball early and often.
Mitchell had 29 points and 53.75 DraftKings points in Game 1, and he has 50+ DraftKings points in four of his last six games. Mitchell looked outstanding in the first three quarters but only managed three points while shooting 1-for-6 from the field in the fourth quarter and overtime.
Harden has been the least productive of the Cavs’ big three, posting only 23.75 and 26.0 DraftKings points in his last two games and continuing to struggle with turnovers. He has at least six turnovers in three of his last four games. The Beard has the potential to turn things around with a big game on Thursday, but he’s the highest risk of the five studs in the series since he has been struggling so badly and was also exposed on the defensive end by Brunson in the Knicks’ furious fourth-quarter comeback.
Towns and Mobley are the best plays from the stud group, according to both sets of projections, with Brunson and Mitchell as secondary options and Harden as a high-risk, boom-or-bust option to consider mixing in. Any of the five stars in this section could dominate the contest, but the big men have been more consistent and have strong potential for double-doubles, giving them strong upside to consider in Game 2.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Mid-Range Picks
Just behind the studs, Jarrett Allen and Josh Hart are strong mid-range plays with the potential to outproduce their price point. Allen had 26.75 DraftKings points in Game 1 but had over 36 DraftKings points in two of his last three games against the Pistons. He doesn’t get the usage of Mobley, Harden, or Mitchell, but he can stuff the stat sheet and make the most of his chances.
Allen has the highest Plus/Minus projection of the non-stud options in the FantasyLabs projections, with Hart right behind him. In the ShotQuality projections, Hart is ahead of Allen in Plus/Minus projections, even though he costs a little bit more.
Hart had 13 points and 29.25 DraftKings points in Game 1 and is averaging 31.2 DraftKings points per game in the playoffs. If you have the salary to spend up on him, he’s slightly more stable than Allen, but Allen does have an extremely high ceiling.
OG Anunoby played 34 minutes in his return from a hamstring injury in Game 1 and posted 24.2 DraftKings points on 13 points and five rebounds. He showed a much higher ceiling with over 39 DraftKings points in five of his last six games before the injury, including two games with over 50 DraftKings points.
After knocking off the rust, he could be the key to building a winning lineup if he returns to his previous production. He’s high risk since his Game 1 numbers weren’t great, but it is a good sign that he logged so many minutes and was involved. If you’re okay with the risk, Anunoby actually makes a strong Captain’s Pick consideration for GPP builds since he does offer such a high ceiling.
Even with Anunoby’s return, Mikal Bridges continued his playoff surge, exceeding salary-based expectations for the sixth straight game. He has scored at least 17 points in five of those games, with multiple steals in each of his last three.
Mitchell Robinson played 14 minutes in Game 1 and finished with four points, six rebounds, and 17 DraftKings points. At only $4,000, he is a good bargain play if you are looking for a player who can make a quick impact. He hasn’t played big minutes in the postseason but could be critical against the Cavs’ bigger lineups as this series goes on.
Other mid-range options for the Cavs include Max Strus, Dennis Schroder, and Sam Merrill, who each have good upside if their outside shooting heats up. Merrill has been the best of the bunch lately, relative to salary, finishing with a positive Plus/Minus in six straight games, including his big game in Game 7 against Detroit, when he had 23 points and 30.75 DraftKings points. Merrill has solid upside after scoring double-digit points in each of his last three contests.
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NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Jordan Clarkson ($2,000): In both sets of projections, Clarkson is clearly the top punt pick. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all players under $7,000 in a UTIL spot in both sets of projections. Clarkson played 17 minutes in Game 1 and had only 7.5 DraftKings points. However, the encouraging sign for his fantasy value is that he got so many minutes and has gotten more usage off the bench in previous series. If his usage returns in expanded playing time, he has huge potential at only $2,000.
- Dean Wade ($3,000): Wade has exceeded salary-based expectations in three straight games for the Cavs and gets plenty of playing time. He had 22.25 DraftKings points in Game 1 in almost 30 minutes. He doesn’t typically have high usage, but his big minutes give him a good ceiling and a decent floor to consider as a punt pick.
- Jose Alvarado ($1,400): Alvarado’s role is less certain than Clarkson’s and Wade’s, and he only logged seven minutes in Game 1. He always brings great energy and defensive pressure, though, which makes him a boom-or-bust option in this matchup, depending on whether he gets the minutes or not in Game 2.
- Jaylon Tyson ($1,000): Tyson had some huge games for the Cavs this season and has good upside, but his role has been very small in the playoffs so far. He only played four minutes in Game 1 and didn’t have any fantasy contributions, but he has shown he can chip in meaningful minutes when called on. He’s higher risk than the other punt picks highlighted here, but he does have a high ceiling if coach Kenny Atkinson gives him more work in Game 2.
Pictured: Karl-Anthony Towns
Photo Credit: Imagn
