The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Jose Soriano (R) $9,500 Los Angeles Angels (-110) vs. Athletics
It’s been an up-and-down series in Los Angeles against the Athletics, with a three-run game, a 20-run game, and another that went for 11 in extra innings. The A’s are a top-ten offense on paper, but of course they have an extremely hitter-friendly home park, so there’s probably some value to rostering pitchers against them when they’re on the road – or at least the right pitchers.
Soriano might fall into that category. He has a 2.41 ERA that should probably be somewhat higher based on his ERA predictors, but so should his 28% strikeout rate based on his swinging strikes. If he got a little better luck in terms of strikeouts, that would also lower his predictors, so all things considered, his actual performance has been about where it should be.
That actual performance has led to an average of over 22 DraftKings points per game, easily the best on the four-game evening slate. Even if the matchup with the A’s lowers that a little bit, he’s still the favorite to lead all pitchers in scoring. We have him with the best median and ceiling projections on the slate and reasonable ownership, all things considered. He wouldn’t be a standout on a larger slate, but he might be the best option tonight.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Carlos Rodon (L) $7,700 New York Yankees (-171) vs. Toronto Blue Jays
This will be just Rodon’s third start of 2026, after throwing nearly 200 innings last season and finishing with a 3.09 ERA. So far, the results haven’t been anywhere near that good this season, with five earned runs allowed across eight innings. Of course, that’s a very small sample size – and he should continue to work his way back closer to his old form as the season moves on.
Plus, one of his two appearances this season came against the Brewers, who have a wRC+ against lefties about 20 points higher than the Blue Jays’. The other was against the Mets, who are virtually identical to Toronto in that department. He showed some signs of life in that latter engagement, striking out six hitters through 3.2 innings while allowing two earned runs.
Toronto does have an extremely low strikeout rate against southpaws, which caps the upside for Rodon a bit. However, on a four-game slate, we don’t need nearly as much upside to win tournaments, especially at his sub-$8,000 price tag, which is low enough that he leads our Pts/Sal ratings.
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MLB DFS GPP Picks
Spencer Strider (R) $10,000 Atlanta Braves (-141) at Miami Marlins
Similar to Rodon, this is just the fourth start of the season for Strider, though we’re unfortunately not getting a similar salary discount. That’s probably because Strider has been better, with a 2.45 ERA and 31% strikeout rate through 14.2 innings. That’s even more impressive considering that his starts have included away games at Coors Field and games against the Dodgers. With that said, it might be hard to pay off his price point if he remains limited in terms of pitch count, so I’m not exactly rushing to roster him as the highest-owned pitcher on the slate.
Eduardo Rodriguez (L) $7,500 Arizona Diamondbacks (-210) vs. Colorado Rockies
I don’t really understand the price point on Rodriguez, considering he gets a dream matchup against the Rockies when they’re away from home. Colorado has struck out 29.9% of the time against lefties this year, the worst by a wide margin, and their 29 wRC+ ranks the second-worst in baseball. For Rodriguez to be just $7,500 as a more than two-to-one favorite against a team with a sub-4.0 implied total is a steal, especially since he comes into the game with a 2.53 ERA.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using our tournament model belongs to Arizona Diamondbacks:
While the D’Backs don’t get to play at Coors Field, they do get to face the Rockies’ Zach Agnos ($4,000), who will operate somewhere between opener and starter tonight. Agnos has thrown just over ten innings across his last three appearances and brings a 5.59 ERA into tonight’s action.
Of course, that ERA is somewhat inflated by home games at Coors Field, but his ERA indicators are still in the mid-fours. After he exits, he’ll be replaced by a Rockies bullpen with a collective ERA over 4.00 as well.
This is why Arizona leads the slate by a wide margin with its 5.7-run implied total while being drastically underpriced. They’re a roughly league-average lineup overall, but given the soft matchup(s), that should be more than enough to put up plenty of runs tonight. Crucially, they also leave plenty of salary to roster superstar hitters from other teams or to spend up at pitching.
Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
George Springer OF ($4,300) Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees (Carlos Rodon)
With the pitching ownership likely dominated by Rodon, Strider, and Soriano, whomever among that group you leave out gives you a massive leverage opportunity. I want to make a point to roster at least one hitter against the pitchers I fade to give me an even bigger leg up over lineups with that arm.
With the Yankees starting a lefty, I used PlateIQ to identify the best Blue Jays bats for the job:
Springer stands out, as does Ernie Clement 2B/SS ($3,200), but Clement is harder to fit around the Diamondbacks stack, making Springer the easier choice.
Michael Harris OF ($3,500) Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins (Sandy Alcantara)
The Braves are one of the best offenses in baseball, though they have a somewhat difficult matchup with Miami’s Sandy Alcantara ($8,200), who seems to have regained some of his past form after a down 2025. As such, the market is splitting the difference with the Braves, giving them a middling 4.1-run implied total.
That still makes Harris too cheap, considering he’s projected to hit second in their lineup. Plus, Alcantara has been noticeably worse against lefties, allowing a .328 wOBA to left-handed hitters compared to just .259 to righties this season, with similar (albeit less drastic) splits throughout his career.
On top of that, Harris is hitting .298 and slugging .491 on the season, so I have no idea why he’s this cheap.
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Pictured: Jose Soriano
Photo Credit: Imagn
